after the cold war and the modern world. the post-cold war world, main trends: --unprecedented...

After the Cold War After the Cold War and the Modern and the Modern WorldWorld

The Post-Cold War World, The Post-Cold War World, main trends:main trends:

--Unprecedented expansion of capitalism--Formation of the global capitalist class, which has absorbed former communist elites--Unprecedented rise of US global influence--Ideological dominance of neoliberalism--Lack of major ideological alternatives to the new status-quo--Logic of the market vs. logic of democracy--Steady buildup of tensions and conflicts: from relative peace to a global war mode--Discovery of climate change: new stage in the growth of eco-consciousness--The global economic crisis

The Post-Cold War World:3 periods

First Period,1991-2000: Triumph of the West◦ Russia’s transition crisis◦ The Unipolar Moment: US hegemony at its peak◦ The Western expansion◦ Formation of the global neoliberal regime

Second Period, 2001-2008: US Hegemony Tested◦ The Islamist challenge and the Bush response◦ Development of a multipolar system◦ Russia’s resurgence◦ Relative decline of US hegemony

Third Period, 2008-◦ The global economic crisis◦ Obama and the American perestroika ◦ The rise of China as a global power◦ Europe: From integration to fragmentation?◦ Reset in Russia’s relations with the West

2 international perspectives 2 international perspectives on on SovietSoviet foreign policy foreign policy

◦ USSR AS A PROBLEM an empire dominating Eurasian Heartland a global subversive force undermining

capitalism

◦ USSR AS A SOLUTION a key ally against Hitler a source of help to developing countries

(support of national liberation movements, economic assistance)

a counterbalance to the US

Contraction of Russian power

NATO enlargement, 1949-2004

Main changes in Russia’s Main changes in Russia’s international role following international role following the end of the Cold War:the end of the Cold War:

1. Reduction of the main parameters of Russia’s power◦ Territorial losses◦ Economic depression◦ The military crisis◦ Ideological neutralization

after being a key part of the Global Left for most of the 20th century, Russia joined the Global (neoliberal) Right

2. Russian society was opened to the impact of global forces with minimal regulation by the state

3. Political affiliation with the West4. Reluctant acceptance of US hegemony

Post-Soviet Russia was no longer a problem for the West in the Cold War sense:◦ Russia’s abandonment of its Soviet mode

became a key enabling factor for the formation of the global neoliberal regime

◦ RUSSIA AS A “NORMAL COUNTRY”: capitalist, cautious, status quo, pragmatic, with limited ambitions, seeking friends everywhere, wary of making enemies

RUSSIA RUSSIA AS A PROBLEM AS A PROBLEM AFTER THE COLD WARAFTER THE COLD WARThe transition crisis: dangerous side-effects of

reforms:◦ The nuclear dimension◦ Possibility of a totalitarian backlash◦ Potential for civil war ◦ Tensions with new neighbors, attempts to

maintain a sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space

Russia as a US client: no longer counterbalancing the US (not a problem for the US, but a problem for many other states) – or:

Russia as a member of coalitions to counterbalance US hegemony (a problem for the US)

The dominant American The dominant American perspective:perspective:

Help Russia become a “normal” countryPrevent Russia from acting as a

counterbalanceControl Russia’ behaviour to keep it

congruent with US interestsExpand US influence into the post-Soviet

spacePerspectives outside the US:Many countries would like Russia to play the

role of a non-hostile, but relatively independent, actor in international politics

Most Russians have the same perspective

US National Intelligence Council forecast for US National Intelligence Council forecast for the year 2025, unveiled in October 2008, the year 2025, unveiled in October 2008, described Russia as described Russia as

One of four rising centers of international power: “In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way — roughly from West to East — is without precedent in modern history . . . . No other countries are projected to rise to the level of China, India, or Russia, and none is likely to match their individual global clout. . . .

Growth projections for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRICs) indicate they will collectively match the original G-7’s share of global GDP by 2040-2050.”

“Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”. Washington: National Intelligence Council, November 2008 - http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html , pp. vi, vii

The Russian economy needs major modernization to be competitive

The new Russian state is in many ways dysfunctional and needs major reforms to meet Russia’s challenges

The Russian society is deeply split by social inequality

Continued resurgence requires new policies and reforms

The structure of Russia’s exports: 93% raw materials

Russia’s military powerRussia’s military power

Mid-1980s – defense spending accounted for 15-17% of Soviet GDP

Massive cuts following dissolution of USSR in 1991 Steady rise since 2000 – by 15-25% a year In 2006, a new state armaments program, which

will span 2007-2015, was adopted Price tag: 4.9 trillion rubles (US$186 billion). 63% is to be allocated for the procurement of

modern weapons and equipment 27% towards defense research and development. 2009 – defence spending accounts for 2.5% of

Russia’s GDP◦ normal level for a Western country

Topol-M, Russia’s new mobile ICBM

A Tu-95 over the Arctic

Russian infantry in Georgia, August 2008

A Russian warship in the Caribbean

Russia is buying a Mistral amphibious assault ship from France

NATO – Russia military NATO – Russia military balancebalanceTotal armed forces personnel 3:1Military aircraft 10:1Tanks 3:1Artillery 2:1Naval ships 2:1Submarines 3:1Aircraft carriers 19:1

◦ How real is this picture?◦ Partly

Comparing 1917 and Comparing 1917 and 1991:1991:The Romanov Empire collapsed as a result of a

revolution, the elites were overthrown and replaced by new elites as a result of the civil war

The Communist elites moved to divide the empire to recast themselves as leaders of independent nation-states – ◦ or of units of the Russian Federation

A key reason why the Soviet empire made a relatively quiet exit was because key Soviet elites saw a future for themselves after communism

Transition to capitalism would enable most of them to maintain and even enhance their power and privilege

Having dissolved the empire, the new elites have been engaged in competition and cooperation between themselves to: ◦ secure their control, ◦ reform their political-economic systems, ◦ find new places in the regional and global orders

THIS STRUGGLE OVER THE IMPERIAL SPOILS IS THE ESSENCE OF THE NEW INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN EURASIA

Some of them stick together ◦ Russian Federation◦ Commonwealth of Independent States◦ GUUAM - Military Cooperation between Georgia, Ukraine,

Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova Others go their own separate ways, look for new

partnerships Meanwhile, many other states are exploring

opportunities to expand their influence in Eurasia

They can be mutually reinforcing, making it possible to achieve significant foreign policy gains.

They can be mutually exclusive, forcing Russia’s leaders to make hard choices between them, which makes policy setbacks likely.

They can be managed through tradeoffs, which requires great political skills, significant and diverse power resources, and effective institutions.

Choices and balances between market and geopolitical considerations in Russia’s international behavior.

If the market imperative is considered decisive:◦ Russia can be expected to try to market its

geopolitical assets – that is, to achieve economic gains through a skillful use of its unique geopolitical position.

If the geopolitical imperative becomes uppermost:

◦ Russia may adopt mercantilist stances and use market interactions with other countries to achieve maximum possible geopolitical gains.

Different forces within Russia favor different market-geopolitical balances.

Russian elite interestsRussian elite interestsThe oligarchy – the upper crust of the new

capitalist class, product of the post-communist transformation◦ Most important sources of wealth: oil, gas and

arms◦ Dependent on the West, primarily the US◦ Dependent on the Russian state, wants to

rationalize it◦ Needs traditional foreign policy assets of the

USSR◦ Assertive in the political sphere◦ Seeks economic opportunities worldwide◦ Intertwined with state bureaucracy

The BureaucratsThe Bureaucrats◦ The “enforcers” (siloviki) – military and

security elites Determined to get upper hand over the

oligarchs, get their property Institutionally and traditionally suspicious

of the West Interested in a restoration of a stronger

and more authoritarian Russian state, but on a capitalist basis

◦ Federal civilian bureaucracy Interested in whatever protects and

increases their power◦ Regional bureaucracies, regional foreign

policy interests

The national bourgeoisie◦ Well below the ranks of the oligarchy◦ Gets little from the West◦ Feels dominated by the oligarchs◦ Is nationalist and protectionist

The politicians◦ 1990s: liberals, communists, nationalists,

“United Russia” – becoming the ruling party under Putin

◦ The Westernizer-Eurasianist divide – and synthesis

Russian threat perceptions◦ Security – internal and external◦ Control of resources◦ Russia’s defence capability◦ Technological lag behind the West◦ Negative demography

Globescan poll of Russians, April 2009 http://surveys.globescan.com/bbc_russia09/

Russia’s foreign policy Russia’s foreign policy compasscompass

West - US, EU, NATOEast – China, India, JapanSouth - the Muslim worldNorth - the Arctic

The dominant trends in Russian foreign policy thinking◦ Relations with the West are top priority◦ No desire to confront the West◦ Recognition of Western concerns

But also: ◦ Primacy of national interests, emphasis on

independence◦ Claim for “special interests” in the post-Soviet space◦ Multivector foreign policy – active engagement with

other international actorsPragmatismPrimacy of trade and investment issuesReadiness for dialog, for development of joint

solutions to problems

Post-Cold War Period for Post-Cold War Period for AmericaAmerica

The Persian Gulf WarThe Persian Gulf WarSaddam Hussein, dictator of Iraq

◦ Iraq invaded its wealthy neighbor Kuwait on August 2, 1990 because of an oil dispute.

The U.S. dispatched troops to Saudi Arabia to prevent Iraq expansion.◦ Desert Shield

The U.N. authorized the use of force to dislodge Iraq from Kuwait.◦ By January 1991, George Bush had put

together a 28 nation coalition

The Gulf The Gulf WarWar

Operation Desert Storm◦Air attack began on January 17 against Baghdad

◦Ground attack began on February 24 and lasted only 4 days

◦Cease fire on February 28◦Saddam Hussein remained in power. Continued economic sanctions

Recession and Recession and DownsizingDownsizing

The former Cold War Rivals began the process of downsizing the military.◦Private businesses also began

“restructuring” and “downsizing”Economic recession

◦Increased inflation and unemployment and decreased production.

◦The recession would be short and self-correcting. “Peace dividend”

The economic situation improved by 1996.

Unleashing GlobalizationUnleashing Globalization

The end of the Cold War removed many impediments to globalization.

With many of the political and ideological obstacles to international integration dissolving, capital, commodities, people, and culture crossed borders with ever-greater freedom.◦Tariffs and immigration laws changed.

Trade IntegrationTrade IntegrationEast Asia

◦ China went from 5 to 12 percent of the world’s GDP

◦ Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong became mini-powerhouses

◦ Over 25 percent by 1989

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (1993)◦ U.S., Mexico, and Canada

Maastricht Treaty (1991)◦ The constitution for the European Union, which

was to be a fully integrated trading and financial bloc

◦ Single European Currency (the euro)

Israeli-Palestinian Arab Israeli-Palestinian Arab ConflictConflictThe Palestinian Authority led by Yasir ArafatIsrael led by Yitzhak RabinOslo Agreements (1993-94)

◦Series of withdrawals by the Israelis and the turnover of land to the Palestinian Authority

◦Palestinian self-rule in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

www.fmep.org/maps/

Israeli-Palestinian Arab Israeli-Palestinian Arab ConflictConflict

Unresolved issues◦Status of Jerusalem

Both claimed sovereignty over Jerusalem.◦Security issues◦Control of water resources◦Ultimate status of the Palestinian entity

Palestinians believed the process would lead to complete independence.

Israeli Prime Minister Rabin assassinated in 1995.◦Sporadic violence on both sides continues.

Yugoslavian Turmoil (The Yugoslavian Turmoil (The Balkans)Balkans)

Ethnic and religious conflicts in Bosnia and Croatia◦ Orthodox Serbs, Catholic Croats, and Bosnian or

Albanian Muslims◦ “Ethnic Cleansing”◦ Dayton Accord (1995)

NATO and Peacekeeping mission.Intervention in Kosovo

◦ Muslim Albanians outnumbered Serbs.◦ Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic asserted

Serbian control through martial law.◦ NATO launched air strikes in 1999.◦ Milosevic resigned in 2000.

Post-Cold War Shifts in Post-Cold War Shifts in Political Power (Move to Political Power (Move to Center)Center)

U.S. (1992)◦ Republican George Bush is defeated by Democrat Bill

Clinton France (1995)

◦ Neo-Gaullist Jacques Chirac was elected to replace the socialist Mitterrand.

Great Britain (1997)◦ Conservative John Major defeated by the Labour Party

and Tony Blair Germany (1998)

◦ Social Democrat Gerhard Schroder was elected to replace Helmut Kohl’s more conservative party.

◦ Schroder and Blair moved their nations to the political center by advocating a “Third Way” between socialism and capitalism

Russia (2000)◦ Vladimir Putin wins in 2000 after Yeltsin resigns

Internet - IntroductionInternet - IntroductionThe Internet has revolutionized

computers and communications like nothing before

Has world-wide broadcasting capability

A mechanism for information dissemination

A medium for collaboration and interaction without regard for geographic location

World Wide WebWorld Wide WebTim Berners-Lee and others at the

European Laboratory for Particle Physics, more popularly known as CERN, proposed a new protocol for information distribution in 1991 based on hypertext

Hypertext is a system of embedding links in text to link to other text

NowNowInternet backbone bandwidth is getting

bigger – reaching 12 gigabits per second versus NSFNet’s 56K 16 years ago

Subscribers have the option to connect at 56K, 128K, 256K, and even 2Mbps!

E-mail and web are now multimedia-rich

The Net has become an entertainment center

Post 9/11 Society

Joshua Kjerulf DubrowPolish Academy of Sciences

septembereleven2001.wordpress.com

PostPost--9/11 Society9/11 Society

Post-9/11 Domestic and Foreign Policy from the Bush Administration to the Obama Administration

Ideology(a)This is not a crime: this is war

War on Terror

(b)U.S. strength (and values) in the face of adversity U.S. as the force

of democracy in the world

(c)Unity and Unilateralism

(d) Us versus Them „You are with us, or you are with the terrorists”

Action1. War on Terror (domestic)2. Expansion of power of the

Executive Branch of U.S. Government

3. The 9/11 Commission4. Government Reorganization

“With bureaucracy there is birth but never death.”

5. Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (and Pakistan)

[bold = likely most durable impact of 9/11]

“If we don’t [insert activity here],

the terrorists will have won.”

September 2004 "It's absolutely essential that eight weeks from today, on Nov. 2, we make the right choice, because if we make the wrong choice then the danger is that we'll get hit again and we'll be hit in a way that will be devastating from the standpoint of the United States.”-- Vice President Dick Cheney at a town-hall meeting.

Osama Bin Laden’s DeathOsama Bin Laden’s DeathMay 2, 2011 in Pakistan in a

ground operation based on US intelligence

After the raid, he was taken to Afghanistan for identification

Buried in the sea within 24 hours of his death

Obama care is designed Obama care is designed to -to -Reduce health care cost growth for

families, employers and the government.

Provide Americans access to affordable quality health coverage.

Strengthen and protect Medicare and Medicaid.

Modernize our health care delivery system.

What Does the Future hold for What Does the Future hold for you?you?