agenda - college of william & mary...1811- 1882 alfred clark 1844 –1896 stephan clark...

Agenda• Cooperstown / Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum (BBHOF)

• Where? Why? What? • How did Cooperstown become home to the BBHOF in 1939?

• The Hall of Fame (HOF)• Who gets in to the HOF and how?• Borderline inductees, and how they got in. Borderline Candidates.

• HOF Issues- Past and Present • The Negro Leagues, Gambling, and Steroids

• Can you Compare Baseball Players over Time?• Has Baseball Changed? • Comparing MLB Players – Metrics by SABR and Bill James

• The Candidates for the Class of 2018• Today’s standards for induction – a case study• You get to vote!

Cooperstown

Cooperstown: At the Base of Lake Otsego; the source of the Susquehanna River and the Chesapeake Bay.

Cooperstown Today

BeautifulScenery

Grand Old Homes

SmallMemorabilia shops

Glimmerglass OperaLake Otesaga Hoteland Leatherstocking Golf

Farmers MuseumFenimore Art Museum

But Cooperstown’s life blood is the Baseball Hall of Fame (BBHOF)

317 Plaques in the Hall of Fame

BBHOF Library and Archive

Best baseball library and archive in the world

What Exactly is the BBHOF?

An independent, non-profit educational institution

The Buildings are owned by the Clark Estates.

Most of its funding comes from the Clark Foundation.

It is overseen by a Board of Directors

• Jane F. Clark and Joe Morgan (HOF) are Co-ChairsRogers Hornsby

Edward Clark 1811- 1882

Alfred Clark1844 –1896

Stephan Clark1880-1960BBHOF Founder

Jane Forbes Clark II1954 –Dir, BBHOF

Stephan Clark Jr.1911-1992

The Clarks’ Contribution to Cooperstown

• Cultural – BBHOF, Art Museum, Farmers Museum, Historical Center, Opera House, Summer Entertainment

• Health/Welfare: Hospital, Scholarships, Nursing Home, Sports Center, Library

• Businesses: Hotels, Catering, Landscaping, Golf Course• Land for Vistas, Schools, Parks, Ball Fields• Clark business employ ~4200 people a year• Clark Foundation donates up to $7.5M a year

The Myth of Cooperstown

Al Spalding Abraham Mills

Henry Chadwick

Abner Doubleday

Abner Graves

How Cooperstown Became the Home of the BBHOF in 1937

Stephan ClarkFord Frick

Commissioner LandisDoubleday Field

Hall of Fame for Great Americans

Clark, Frick & Landis’ Agreement of 1937

• Clark (Cooperstown) Agrees to:• Build/maintain the BBHOF and museum• Host/pay for the induction ceremonies

• Frick/Landis (MLB) agree to:• Endorse Cooperstown as the BBHOF Site. • Select 20 People for the Hall of Fame by 1939

(Centennial) • Provide teams for exhibition games

Babe Ruth at the 1940 HOF Exhibition Game

Questions / Comments?

Lou Gehrig Babe Ruth Earle Combs Tony Lazerri

Part IIBaseball Hall of Fame(BBHOF)

• Who gets in to the BBHOF and how?

• Borderline inductees, how they got in, and their impact.

• Borderline candidates who never made it.

Roberto Clemente

Jackie

Yogi

• ~19,200 MLB Ball Players since 1869• 220 MLB players inducted into the HOF (1.1%)

What are the Chances of Being Inducted into the HOF? Answer: About 1 in 88

How were the 317 Inductees Selected?

• 124 MLB Players selected by the BBWAA

• 167 Players/Non-Players selected by the “Veterans Committees”

• 26 players/execs selected by Committees on Negro Leagues

Bob Gibson

Fisk and Bench

CoolPapa Bell

Cal Ripken, Jr

Today’s BBHOF Voting Rules

• BBWAA - Need 75% of the vote to be admitted: • Player must be retired for 5 years before being considered• A Screening Committee creates a list of ~25 new candidates per year• This list is combined with Candidates who earned 5-74% of the vote last year• Candidates can stay on the ballot (if they get >5%) for up to 10 years

• “Veterans Committee” – need 75% of the vote to be admitted• Early Baseball (1871–1949) will meet in 2020, 2030 • Golden Days (1950–1969) will meet in 2020, 2025• Modern Baseball (1970–1987) will meet in 2017, 2019, 2022, 2024• Today's Game (1988 and later) will meet in 2018, 2021, 2023

Pee WeeReese

Where: 317 BBHOF Inductees by Position/Job

• Pitcher - 77• Catcher - 18• First Base – 23 • Second Base- 21• Third Base - 16• Short Stop - 24

• Left Field - 22• Center Field - 24• Right Field - 24• Manager - 23• Umpire - 10 • Executive - 35

Casey Stengel

Is there a Standard for Becominga “Hall of Famer”? NO

• HOF voting guidelines:• “Voting shall be based upon the

player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.”

• Bottom line: It is a Subjective Decision

• Creating a “Standard” would be a mistakeBranch Rickey

The Borderline InducteesHow did they get in?

Phil Rizzutto

Richie Ashburn

Ralph Kiner

&

Bill Mazeroski

Hack Wilson

George Kell

Waite Hoyt

Don Drysdale

Phil Rizzuto

JohnnyEvers

Jack Chesbro Bill MazeroskiRay Schalk

Ron Santo

Tinker & Evans

Freddie Lindstrom

BBHOF Inductions by Voting Group by DecadeMLB Player Inductions Only

0

5

10

15

20

25

1937-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2017

BBWAA Vet Com

Veterans Committee: The Lee Allen Era 1959 – 1969A Shift Away from Statistics/Records to the “Baseball Story”

22 players/exec/mgr

Stan Coveleski Kiki Cuyler Edd Roush

Elmer Flick Eppa Rixey Lloyd Waner

Lee AllenBBHOF

Historian

Waite Hoyt

The Frankie Frisch Era 1970-197316 players/execs including the

“The Frankie Frisch Five”

Jesse Haines -1970 Dave Bancroft -1971 Chick Hafey - 1971 Ross Youngs -1972 George Kelly - 1973

Frankie Frisch – Chairman, Veterans Committee 1970-73

Hey wait! How about my guy!

Harry Hooper.281 / 75 HR / 816 RBI

Rube Marquard201-177 3.08 ERA

8 winning seasons out of 18

Rick Ferrell.281 / 28 HR / 735 RBIs

BBWAA React 1981/86 Force New HOF Voting Rules

The Quality of Inductees goes up

Dick Young

Jerry Holtzman Jack Lang

JimMurray

HoF Inductions since 2001• BBWAA – 30 MLB Players

• “Veterans Committee” – 19• 3 MLB Players • 7 MLB Execs / 6 MLB Managers / 2 MLB Umpires• 1 Negro League Player

• Special Committee on the Negro Leagues - 17• 12 Negro League Players • 4 Negro League Execs / 1 Negro League Manager

Joe Gordon

Recent Candidates Lacking Support from the

VC/BBWAA

• Players: Jim Kaat, Tony Oliva, Minnie Minoso, Gil Hodges, Vida Blue, Ken Boyer, Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Kenny Lofton, Willie Randolph Luis Tiant, Maury Wills, Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell, Ted Simmons, Ron Guidry, Dick Allen

• Executives: Marvin Miller, Ewing Kauffman, John Fetzer, Bill White

• Managers: Danny Murtaugh, Charlie Grimm,

Gil Hodges

Commentsor

Questions?

Tom Glavine John Smoltz Greg Maddux

Part IIIHOF Issues – Past and Present

• The Negro Leagues

• Gambling

• Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs)

OscarCharleston

The Negro Leagues (NL)

• 1939 - HOF for MLB only

• 1966 - Ted Williams’ Induction Speech

• 1969 – Kuhn’s Meeting –> Separate Wing

• 1971 – 1977 Special Committee on the NL

• 1978 – 2005 Veterans Committee

• 2006 - Special Committee on the NL

• 35 Total Inductees

Satchel Paige

Gambling and Baseball Before 1920

• Baseball & Gambling were symbiotic before 1920

• Reported Gambling Scandals prior to the 1919 World Series

• 1908 Playoff Game – bribery attempt

• 1914 World Series upset –something isn’t right

• 1917 World Series – the Red Sox?• 1918 World Series – the Cubs?

Sport Sullivan Arnold

Rothstein

John McGrawHal Chase

Baseball, Gambling, & MLB Rule 21

• The 1919 World Series scandal

• MLB created the position of Commissioner

• Rule 21 is posted in every clubhouse: Anyone who bets on baseball is banned from the game.

ShoelessJoe Jackson

KennesawMountain Landis

Jackson and Rose

• Jackson admitted to conspiracy to throw the 1919 World Series• Jackson admitted in an affidavit and several times afterwards• Based on reports, he received $5000• He was a participant, not a leader.

• Rose admitted betting on MLB games; including Reds’ games• He said he never bet against the Reds• He only did it as a Manager

• Both were banned per MLB Rule 21; ineligible for HOF per HOF Rule 3

The PEDs Era: Run scoring picked up

And the Home Runs Brought Fans to the Ball Park

Trouble is Brewing

• 1991 - MLB declares steroids against the rules• 2001/3 – Congress tells MLB & the Unions to take action• 2003 – MLB begins survey testing• 2004 – MLB expands testing and penalties• 2005 - PEDs testing/penalties expanded

BALCO Scandal/Congressional Investigation/Juiced• 2006 - Mitchell Report names 80 MLB players• 2013 – MLB tests for HGH

The Problem for the BBHOF

• MLB did too little/too late about PEDs.

• Forty HOF inductees played during years 1986-2012

• Every 2018 HOF candidate played during 1986-2012

• No HOF guidance to the BBWAA on PEDs • It’s up to the BBWAAs to decide

Manny Ramirez

Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs)and the BBWAA

• Many BBWAA oppose Induction of PED users

• But which players used PEDs?

• Other BBWAAs say:• PEDs era was “a wash”…. • The stats are what they are….• If you can induct Bud Selig…• Bonds, Clemens…get in for “pre-PEDs” career

Bud Selig

Sammy SosaMarkMcGuire

RafaelPalmeiro

Should Clemens’ get in for his “Clean” Years? • Total Career: 1984-2007

• 354W – 184L / 3.12 ERA • 7 Cy Youngs / 1 MVP / 11 All Stars

• “Clean” Years: 1984-1996 • 192W – 111L / 3.06 ERA• 3 Cy Youngs / 1 MVP / 5 All Stars

• “PED?” Years: 1997- 2007 • 162W – 73L / 3.21 ERA• 4 Cy Youngs / 6 All Stars

Should Bonds’ get in for his “Clean” Years? • Total Career: 1986-2007

• .298 / 762 HR / 1996 RBIs• 7 MVPs / 14 All Stars

• “Clean” Years: 1986 – 1998 • .290 / 411 HR / 1216 RBIs• 3 MVPs / 8 All Stars

• “PED?” Years: 1999 – 2007 • .316 / 351 HR / 780 RBIs• 4 MVPs / 6 All Stars

How the BBWA have Voted for Players Suspected of PEDs Use

• NOT ELECTED TO THE HOF

• Eric Gagne - Mitchell Report (MR)

• Juan Gonzalez - MR

• Mo Vaughn – MR

• Jose Canseco - Self admitted• Mark McGuire - Self Admitted

• Ken Caminiti – Self Admitted• Rafael Palmeiro - Tested Positive

• CLASS OF 2018 HOF CANDIDATES

• Barry Bonds - BALCO /MR

• Roger Clemens – MR

• Garry Sheffield – MR/ Self admitted

• Manny Ramirez – Tested Positive 2X

• Sammy Sosa – Tested Positive

• ELECTED TO THE HOF• Mike Piazza – suspicion only• Ivan Rodriguez – suspicion only

Questions or Comments?

Part IV - Can you Compare Baseball Players over Time?

• Baseball rules are largely the same• But the game changes every few years

• How do you Compare Players /Stats between Eras?• Analytical Tools Metrics Developed by:

• the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR)• Bill James

Bill James

Baseball Has Changed Over the Years

• The rules are largely the same, but:• The players have changed since 1901

• More players are competing• They are larger, stronger, faster…

• The game evolves every few years• Different tactics• New types of pitches• New training techniques and technology

• Different equipment

Josh Gibson

Ty Cobb

Luis Aparicio

Stan Musial

The Question: How do you Compare Players and Stats between Eras

DuckyMedwick

JoeMorgan

New Metrics Developed by SABR

• WAR – Wins Above Replacement • WAR7 – The best 7 WAR years for a player. (A HOF

should have >30)• JAWS – The mean of WAR minus WAR7 (a player’s

JAWS is compared to position players who are already in the HOF)

Metrics Developed by Bill James

• HOFm (monitor) – how likely (not how deserving)an active player is to make the HoF.

• HoF average is 100

• Blank Ink Test – Led league in a key categories • HOF average 27 for position player / 40 for pitchers

• Gray Ink Test – In Top Ten in a key categories • HOF average 144 for position player / 185 for pitchers)

Metrics Developed by Bill James

• Similarity Score • Who is the player most similar to?

• The Ken Keltner List • 15 questions which lead to a

rational decision on a HoFcandidate

Eddie Matthews

Mike Schmidt

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS?

Miller HugginsLeo Durocher

John McGraw & Connie Mac

Earl Weaver

Part V The Candidates

for the Class of

2018• Discussing Today’s

Standards for Induction • With Fred McGriff as a

case study

• You get to vote!

Vladimir Guerrero

Mike Mussina Chipper Jones

Looking at Fred McGriff’s Potential for the HoFusing Modern Analytical Tools

A Case Study

• Played 19 seasons for Toronto, San Diego, Atlanta, Tampa, Chicago Cubs, LA Dodgers

• .284 average /.377 slugging /.509 slugging / 134 OPS+

• 441 doubles / 493 homers /1550 RBI / 1349 runs / 2490 hits

• 5 All Star Games, 3 Silver Sluggers, In Top 10 of MVP 6 Times

• Great Post Season Player: .303 /10 HR/37 RBI in 50 games

• 2017 – 8th year eligible for HOF voting; Earned 21% of votes

Fred McGriff’s HOF Statistics

FM Avg. HOF / HOF1B*

WAR 52.4 50/66.4*WAR7 35.8 30/42.7*JAWS 44.1 40/54.6*HOFm 100 100Black Ink 9 27Gray Ink 105 144

Similarity Willie McCovey (887)McCovey

McGriff

Comparing McGriff to his 1B Peers (1986-2004)WAR WAR7 JAWS HOFm

Jeff Bagwell 79.6 48.2 63.9 150Frank Thomas 73.7 45.2 59.5 194Jim Thome 72.9 41.5 57.2 156Rafael Palmeiro 71.6 38.7 55.2 178Eddie Murray 68.3 39.0 53.6 154Mike McGwire 62.0 41.9 51.9 170Keith Hernandez 60.0 41.0 50.5 86John Olerud 58.0 38.9 48.5 68Will Clark 56.2 35.9 46.0 84Fred McGriff 52.4 35.8 44.1 100

Is McGriff in the Top 1% of his Time?

Early Part of His Career

• Tony Gwynn Carlton Fisk• Andre Dawson Jim Rice • Dave Winfield Rickie Henderson• Eddie Murray Tim Raines• Cal Ripken, Jr George Brett

------------------------------------------------

• Will Clark Harold Baines• Steve Garvey Craig Nettles• Dale Murphy Joe Carter

Later Part of His Career

• Wade Boggs Kirby Puckett• Ryne Sandberg Paul Molitor• Ken Griffey, Jr Mike Piazza• Roberto Alomar Barry Larkin• Jeff Bagwell Frank Thomas

----------------------------------------------

• Mark McGuire Rafael Palmeiro• Albert Belle Bernie Williams• Matt Williams Nomar Garciapara

McGriff’s AB per HR vs. his peersShould he lose votes for being clean?

Total 1986-94 1995-on Career McGriff 15.2 20.7 (95-04) 17.8

Bonds 17.4 10.6 (95-07) 12.9

McGwire 14.0 8.2 (95-01) 10.6

Palmeiro 27.8 14.9 (95-05) 18.4

HOF Voters use their Cell Phones!• https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/leader_glossary.shtml#hof_monitor

• Explains the various SABR metrics

• https://www.baseball-reference.com/• the easiest to use baseball stat web site.

• https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/• various career leader categories: ERA, HR...

• https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml• WAR, WAR7, JAWS and other basic stats for starting pitchers. Other links to each playing position. This

can be sorted as needed.

• https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/hof_monitor.shtml• HoF monitor (Hofm)

It’s Time to Vote!Get your cell phones out!

Google this:

“2018 Potential Hall of Fame Ballot Baseball Reference”

It’s Time to Vote!

• The Ballot is on the last page of the handout• Vote for up to Ten HoF Worthy Candidates• Bring your completed ballot to the counters

up front. • We will tally the votes (Need ballot counters)• A candidate with 75% of the votes gets in!• Candidates with less than 5% are dropped

from future ballots

Lefty Grove

Paul BorenInstructor