agile estimation and planning

© ThoughtWorks 2008

An Introduction to Agile Estimation and

Release PlanningPhillip Calçado

pcalcado@thoughtworks.com

© ThoughtWorks 2008

Agile Estimation

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1 - Product Backlog

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2 - Estimate Each Item

How long is this going to take?

-1 day?-1 week?-Forever?

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Is likely to take longer than ?

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2 - Estimate Each ItemThoughtWorks

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#2

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How much longer?

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How much longer?

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Let’s create a unitThoughtWorks

#1 = 2

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Let’s create a unit

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#2 =

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#1 = 26

then

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2

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2 4

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6 4

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2 - Estimate Each Item

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2 - Estimate Each Item•Stories will change•Everyone estimates•Points aren’t a unit of time•Being consistent is more important than being accurate•Estimates must include uncertainty

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2 4

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6 4

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3 - Prioritise

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3 - PrioritiseThoughtWorks

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3 - Prioritise•It is important to help the client prioritise•But the client has the final word•Technical dependencies are relevant•Priorities will change over time

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4 - Assess Velocity

Points = EffortDuration = ?

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Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6

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8 10 14 14 14 18

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Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6

8 10 14 14 14 18

Velocity

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4 - Assess Velocity

What’s our average Velocity likely to be?

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4 - Assess Velocity•Planned Velocity is useful only until we have real data - just an educated guess•“Yesterday’s weather” is more important than average•Iterations must create production-quality increments•Velocity is specific for a team

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Say planned Velocity is 6

5 - Candidate Schedule

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5 - Candidate Schedule

Backlog is points total34

Say planned Velocity is 6

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/ 6= Iterations34 6

5 - Candidate Schedule

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Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6

5 - Candidate ScheduleThoughtWorks

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5 - Candidate Schedule•Ramp-up time usually has a huge impact•Pay attention to cost/scope/time constraints•Aim at delivering early and often

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6 - Monitor and Adapt

Plans are not that important.Planning is.

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6 - Monitor and Adapt

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Start 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Poin

ts

Iteration

Original Plan Actual Total Scope

Real World Example

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6 - Monitor and Adapt•You can’t embrace change and have a plan written in stone•Re-estimate whenever necessary•Don’t try and force real life to look like your plan - It’s the other way around

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Concluding•This is just a framework - there are multiple variants•The customer is a partner during estimation and planning•Don’t try to change the world, change your plan