ai as a catalyst, not as a replacement · 2019-12-16 · that the world’s first trillionaire ....

thornton@thorntonamay.com

AI as a Catalyst,Not as a Replacement

18 May 2017

When People Start Thinking about Machines becoming“increasingly capable” EXPONENTIALLY…

A Variety of Images Leap to Mind…

How Well Machines Play GamesHas been a Recurring Trope

How Well Machines Play GamesHas been a Recurring Trope

How Well Machines Play GamesHas been a Recurring Trope

How AI beat the best poker players in the world | Engadget R+Dhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLXPGwJNLHk

4 Heads Up, No Limit “Texas Hold’em” Poker

pros;each play 30,000 hands of poker over 20 days

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLXPGwJNL

Hk

How Well Machines Play GamesHas been a Recurring Trope

SeaFall by Game Designer Rob Daviauhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dFQwKz1F4s

We Have Run Out of Games…

We have essentially entered a new era of computing

Systems that Do

Systems that Think

Systems that Learn

That new era features a Spectrum of AI Deployments

Assisted Intelligence –applications that help us better perform tasks we are doing today

Augmented Intelligence

Autonomous Intelligence

A Variety of Images Leap to Mind…

A Variety of Images Leap to Mind…

“Increasingly Capable Machines” as Existential Threat

When Machines Do Everything, “What am I Going to do?”

George Segal,Depression Breadline 1991

[at the FDR Memorial]

“Increasingly Capable Machines” as Occupational Threat

Caillebotte at MFA Boston

Are We Looking at the “AI Issue/Opportunity”

the Right Way?

The Rise of Artificial Intelligence

is THE Great Story of Our Time

AI is the Issue du Jour

This impacts all of us

McKinsey study“100% of ‘jobs’

as they are thought of today will be affected.”

The Right Question to be Focusing On…

What are We

Going to Do?

The Futurist Lexicon

Italian Futurism Exhibit at the Guggenheim [10 May 2014]

When thinking of what might happen in future, Some futurists skip to the end

This is dramatic but rarely accurate

A less dramatic process

Involves analyzing

“one step jumps” [what comes next]

&

Postulating the “adjacent possible”

thornton@thorntonamay.com

3 Things are Going to Happen

Jobs Will Be… Alexander Calder, Across the Orange Moons 1967

Eliminated

Enhanced

Emerged[jobs created

that did not exist before]

21

Jump Ball

In the conversations about “the future”

at your organization

What % focus on:

Job Elimination

Job Enhancement

Job Creation

Other

22

In Most Organizations…

90% of the conversations

auger in around Job Elimination

23

A Range of Estimateshave Been Generated

38 percent of U.S. jobs could potentially be at high risk of automation by the early 2030s,

followed by Germany (35 percent), the U.K. (30 percent) and Japan (21 percent).

The automation appears highest in the transportation (56 percent),

manufacturing (46 percent) and wholesale/retail (44 percent) sectors, but lower in

healthcare and social work (17 percent). PwC Economic Forecast https://insights.samsung.com/2017/05/04/artificial-intelligence-and-the-role-of-workers/

24

A Range of Estimateshave Been Generated

Another McKinsey report states that automation could come to affect

50% of the world’s economy, i.e. some 1.2 billion employees.

April 28, 2017 goo.gl/HvxhUw

Big Media is Obsessed withJob Elimination

Observation

The Media Appears to Have Under-played/Overlooked

the Enhancement & Emergent Scenarios Observation

Hypothesis

Rodin Museum, PHL [8 May 2017]

Smart machines will displace

many workers

A Couple of Things to Think About

Rodin Museum, PHL [8 May 2017]

A] Not All Job THAT CAN be Automated

WILL BE AutomatedB] Productivity Gains

Generated by Automation will generate added wealth which will increase # of Service jobs

Forecast Not implementing automation-at-scalewill be viewed as malfeasance

Forecast

By 2030 AI standards,

Most of the Organizations in this Room:

REALLY SUCK!

ForecastHuman-Only Analysis of MRI, CAT Scan

or X-Ray will be call for medical malpractice in 5 years

Forecast

Continuous Health Monitoring will Give Rise to

Personal Health Forecasting [ala weather forecasting]

Personal Health Forecast

“Hey Thornton, can we meet on Friday?”

“Let me check.”

“Nope, looks like I will have the flue

on Friday.”

Hypothesis

The impact of automation will vary across

disciplines, industries & geographies

Forecast

Klaus Schwab, Chairman of the World Economic Forum

In 10 years, having a Bot on the Board of Directors will be “good board practice.”

Forecast

Increasingly you will hear CEOs telling shareholders,

“We are an AI-First Company.”

Observation

People Like & Depend on AI

Tatsuro Kiuchi

AI has become part of daily life

Observation People Like & Depend on AI

x St. Augustine, FLAugust 11-12, 2015

Tatsuro Kiuchi

Observation

Most companies don’t have not set apart the time or resourcesto map out their plans for an AI-enabled world

You Need a Plan

TTP – Techniques, Tactics & Procedures

Are We Thinking about the Problem

the Right Way?

Rodin Museum, PHL [8 May 2017]

Are We Talking about the Problem the Right Way?

ANY Job is a sum of its tasks[e.g., there are 28 tasks associated

with the job of being an accountant]

The question is not: “Will this job be automated?”

The question is:“What tasks associated with the job will be automated?”

ANY Job is a sum of its tasks

ANY Job is a sum of its tasks

Decompose Current Work Streams into Their Components Tasks

Action Item

Gustave Caillebotte, The Floor-Scrapers [1878]

There is career security in

information security

For Now…

Aaron LevieCEO @Box

There is career security in

data science

For Now…

Before We Get FrenziedOver Current Jobs Disappearing

http://bigthink.com/videos/missing-the-200-pound-gorilla-in-the-room

The Gorilla NOBODY Sees

The Elephant in the RoomNobody Wants to Talk About

67% of the U.S. Workforce is “unengaged”

Counter Intuitive Truth

Cathy Beech, CISOChildren’s Hospital of Philadelphia

[9 May 2017]

Hypothesis

AI will create work that is better, more productive

and more satisfying than ever before.Rodin Museum, PHL [8 May

2017]

The Upside

AI is about to usher in a

new industrial revolution

Marcel Duchamp, Chocolate Grinder (No. 2) 1914

The Upside

Those who manage it properly

will experience significant economic

growth

Marcel Duchamp, Chocolate Grinder (No. 2) 1914

The Upside

Mark Cuban tells everybody

that the world’s first trillionaire will be an

“AI trillionaire”

The Budding Effect

Technology innovation creates industries

The Budding Effect

Uniform Grass Gave Birth to Organized Sports –a $1.5 trillion + industry

The Budding Effect

Uniform Grass Gave Birth to Organized Sports –a $1.5 trillion + industry

Hypothesis

AI will raise living

standards

Rodin Museum, PHL [8 May 2017]

Economic growth will be

far strongerthan any

we’ve seen in the

Western world during the

past 50 years

We have all seen this movie before

Winslow Homer, The Veteran in a New Field, 1865

In 1870, 90% of Americans labored on Farms

Today < 2%

We don’t have 98% unemployment

Lessons From History

Joseph Mallord William Turner,Rain, Steam, and Speed - The Great Western Railway 1844

In the beginning, technology eliminates jobs

faster than technology creates jobs

Lessons From History

IN 1930, John Maynard Keynes penned “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren”

labeling a new malady – “technological unemployment…due to our discovery of means of economising

the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.”

How Will / How Should Government Respond to the trauma of worker dislocation?

Inauguration of William H. Taft at the Capitol, March 1909

Regulate % of Human Labor Required in CertainProducts & Services?

Lessons From History

When food was scarce,

bread riots occurred

Lessons From History

Might we anticipateJob

and/or Skill Riots?

Government Response?

Basic Income Guarantee [universal monthly payment

for all workers]

“Employability Loans”“People need to be able to

borrow money to build up their skillsets and retrain and then pay off their debt as soon as

they find work.

These loans could even sometimes be granted by an

employer rather than the bank to a future employee,

who would then reimburse the loan at a low rate of interest.”

Jobs Will Be… Alexander Calder, Across the Orange Moons 1967

12%Eliminated

75%Enhanced

13%Emerged

[jobs createdthat did not exist before]

Is that the Right Question to Ask?

Hypothesis

Know-It-AllBusinesses

Leaders can and should have continuous awareness of all

that is occurring in their organization’s operations

.

Rodin Museum, PHL [8 May 2017]