amárach economic recovery index april 2015
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1 Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing
April 2015
© Amárach Research
2 Economic Recovery Index
Better Than Before
We have been measuring the Economic
Recovery Index every month since April 2009:
six years ago this month.
By a happy coincidence, our Index has
reached its highest level yet, finally breaking
through the ‘40 barrier’ – and most of the
related indicators are at their highest levels too
since we began.
So all-in-all a very positive picture indeed, and
a much better place to be in when compared
to some of the darker days we tracked back in
2009 and 2010…
3 Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out nearly six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to April 2015.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 14th to 22nd April 2015 inclusive.
See how bad it was six years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/psychology-of-recession-and-recovery-march-2009-1089954
5 Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Finally, six years on, our Index has broken through the 40 mark:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, April 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Ap
r '0
9
Jun
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'10
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'11
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'12
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'13
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'14
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'15
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
the ERI has regained momentum after a late 2014 plateau…
6 Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Mar ’15: 16% Apr ’15: 14%
Mar ’15: 30% Apr ’15: 30%
Mar ’15: 36% Apr ’15: 37%
Mar ’15: 17% Apr ’15: 17%
Mar ’15: 1% Apr ’15: 2%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
A solid majority of Irish people now say that the economy is improving:
7 Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Apr-09 77 14 8 1 0 8.3
Apr-10 38 34 25 2 1 23.8
Apr-11 51 27 19 2 1 18.2
Apr-12 49 27 21 3 0 19.4
Apr-13 46 29 22 3 0 20.3
Apr-14 23 32 35 9 1 33.2
Mar-15 16 30 36 17 1 39.5
Apr-15 14 30 37 17 2 40.2
April 2015 sees the highest score, November 2010 was the lowest…
9 Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Apr-09 34 48 57 59
Apr-10 43 47 52 53
Apr-11 24 39 47 48
Apr-12 31 42 51 50
Apr-13 25 35 40 44
Apr-14 35 40 49 43
Mar-15 40 40 48 40
Apr-15 46 45 57 44
key financial wellbeing indicators picked up strongly in April…
10 Economic Recovery Index
Feeling Resilient?
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, April 2015
April 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540
Strongly Agree 14% 16% 12% 12% 9% 15% 11% 20% 19% 20% 9%
Slightly Agree 31% 30% 31% 29% 28% 29% 30% 36% 31% 36% 26%
Neither/Nor 18% 20% 17% 20% 23% 17% 18% 14% 19% 16% 20%
Slightly Disagree 17% 15% 18% 14% 20% 17% 17% 14% 15% 16% 17%
Strongly Disagree 17% 16% 18% 14% 16% 19% 20% 15% 12% 9% 23%
11 Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Apr-09 15
Apr-10 21 28 59 31
Apr-11 14 27 58 24
Apr-12 20 30 59 28
Apr-13 15 23 57 21
Apr-14 24 24 56 26
Mar-15 26 27 51 24
Apr-15 30 26 51 28
the % more relaxed about spending is double the level at the start of the series…
12 Economic Recovery Index
Relaxed Spenders
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
% Agree: April 2009 to April 2015
Source: Amárach Research, April 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Apr
'09
May
Ju
n
Ju
l
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n'1
0
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n'1
1
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n'1
2
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n'1
3
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n'1
4
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n'1
5
Feb
Mar
Apr
13 Economic Recovery Index
Opening Purses & Wallets
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, April 2015
April 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540
Strongly Agree 9% 10% 8% 8% 12% 9% 3% 10% 9% 10% 8%
Slightly Agree 21% 23% 19% 20% 21% 26% 22% 19% 23% 24% 19%
Neither/Nor 21% 24% 18% 20% 17% 15% 20% 29% 25% 22% 20%
Slightly Disagree 22% 20% 24% 27% 23% 23% 22% 18% 23% 22% 23%
Strongly Disagree 24% 20% 28% 16% 25% 25% 33% 23% 17% 19% 28%
15 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to April 2015
Source: Amárach Research, April 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
May
Ju
n
Ju
l
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n'1
0
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n'1
1
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n'1
2
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n'1
3
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n'1
4
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n'1
5
Feb
Mar
Apr
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
16 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to April 2015
Source: Amárach Research, April 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ap
r '0
9M
ay
Jun
Jul
Au
gS
ept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
'10
Fe
bM
ar
Ap
rM
ay
Jun
eJuly
Au
gS
ept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
'11
Fe
bM
ar
Ap
rM
ay
Jun
eJuly
Au
gS
ept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
'12
Fe
bM
ar
Ap
rM
ay
Jun
eJuly
Au
gS
ept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
'13
Fe
bM
ar
Ap
rM
ay
Jun
eJuly
Au
gS
ept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
'14
Fe
bM
ar
Ap
rM
ay
Jun
eJuly
Au
gS
ept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
'15
Fe
bM
ar
Ap
r
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
17 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Source: Amárach Research, April 2015
April 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540
Enjoyment 53% 53% 54% 59% 47% 44% 53% 63% 52% 57% 51%
Happiness 52% 49% 56% 66% 48% 41% 50% 57% 50% 52% 53%
Stress 38% 33% 42% 56% 36% 47% 39% 21% 40% 39% 37%
Worry 30% 26% 34% 42% 28% 30% 33% 23% 32% 28% 32%
Anxiety 30% 26% 34% 47% 29% 29% 31% 20% 29% 28% 32%
Boredom 25% 21% 29% 49% 29% 23% 14% 14% 26% 21% 28%
Physical Pain 21% 19% 23% 20% 15% 21% 25% 24% 20% 20% 22%
Sadness 17% 13% 22% 25% 18% 13% 16% 15% 20% 16% 19%
Anger 15% 14% 15% 20% 20% 15% 13% 7% 17% 14% 15%
Loneliness 13% 11% 15% 19% 14% 12% 10% 10% 13% 12% 14%
Fear 8% 7% 8% 14% 8% 10% 5% 4% 6% 6% 9%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:
19 Economic Recovery Index
Momentum
After six long years, it’s good to see real
momentum coming through in our Economic
Recovery Index – consumers are loosening
their purse and wallet strings, and there
seems to be a genuine willingness to spend.
We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress in
the months ahead – and keep you posted
about Ireland’s consumers & their needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2015.
For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm
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