amarach economic recovery index december 2012
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1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing
December 2012additional analysis by: Main bank, supermarket, mobile network, daily newspaper,TV service provider, electricity provider, health insurer, other
© Amárach Research
2Economic Recovery Index
Emotional Budget
Our December ERI caught the Irish consumer at a stressful time – fieldwork literally coincided with the announcement of the Government’s Budget 2013.
This can be seen in the indices for positive and negative emotions in Ireland – the gap got a lot closer this month: not a good sign coming up to Christmas.
Nevertheless, the key indicators for spending, saving and borrowing intentions did not deteriorate on the previous month: so maybe there’ll be a Christmas surge at the shops yet.
As a special Christmas present to our readers we have broken out our ERI measures by a range of sectors and companies so you can gauge how well your customers – and your competitors’ – are doing at the end of 2012.
3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out three years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
Our tracking research has shown the remarkable emotional strength of the Irish people, who have consistently reported ‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most frequently experienced emotions.
This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to December 2012.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 1st to 8th December 2012 inclusive.
4Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Nov’12: 47% Dec’12: 49%
Nov’12: 30% Dec’12: 28%
Nov’12: 20% Dec’12: 20%
Nov’12: 3% Dec’12: 3%
Nov’12: 0% Dec’12: 0%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
Our ERI Index remained flat in December 2012, with nearly half feeling the economic situation in Ireland is getting worse:
5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI has continued to weaken steadily since July – though December’s index is still up on December 2011:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Apr '09
Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '10
May
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '11
May
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '12
Feb Mar Apr '12
May
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec0
5
10
15
20
25
30
6Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 1
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
7Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 2
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
8Economic Recovery Index
Heads Down: 1
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by gender, household income & presence and age of children):“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
December 2012 TOTAL Male Female Under €30k
€30-€60k
€60-€90k
€90k+Has
Child -ren
No Child
-ren
Child Under
17
Child Over
17
Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 353 322 114 40 605 399 345 337
Strongly Agree 8% 9% 6% 4% 9% 13% 29% 7% 9% 6% 8%
Slightly Agree 24% 27% 22% 16% 29% 41% 27% 23% 25% 18% 27%
Neither/Nor 13% 14% 12% 12% 13% 11% 14% 13% 14% 15% 10%
Slightly Disagree 26% 25% 27% 30% 26% 21% 20% 24% 28% 27% 23%
Strongly Disagree 27% 24% 30% 37% 22% 13% 7% 30% 22% 32% 30%
9Economic Recovery Index
Heads Down: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper – who agree/disagree with the statement:“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
December 2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB TescoDunne Stores
Aldi O2Voda fone
3Irish
TimesIrish Indo
Irish Daily Mail
Weighted Sample 1003 357 302 156 360 184 171 237 365 90 205 210 68
Strongly Agree 8% 9% 9% 5% 8% 8% 5% 10% 7% 4% 14% 14% 7%
Slightly Agree 24% 23% 26% 23% 26% 29% 21% 23% 25% 23% 31% 27% 18%
Neither/Nor 13% 12% 12% 14% 13% 10% 11% 12% 15% 14% 13% 11% 15%
Slightly Disagree 26% 27% 24% 19% 26% 27% 29% 31% 24% 17% 25% 28% 29%
Strongly Disagree 27% 27% 24% 37% 26% 24% 31% 23% 28% 36% 15% 19% 26%
10Economic Recovery Index
Heads Down: 3
% of Irish adults – by TV service provider, electricity provider, health insurer and customers of other organisations – who agree/disagree with the statement:“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
December 2012 Total Sky UPCSaor -view
Electric Ireland
AirtricityBord Gais
VHI Aviva LibertyIrish Life
eircom
Weighted Sample 1003 410 277 151 536 258 187 233 109 79 277 332
Strongly Agree 8% 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 5% 11% 9% 9% 13% 9%
Slightly Agree 24% 23% 26% 27% 24% 27% 22% 38% 33% 23% 33% 30%
Neither/Nor 13% 12% 15% 12% 11% 15% 15% 9% 16% 11% 11% 12%
Slightly Disagree 26% 22% 24% 34% 26% 27% 25% 22% 26% 26% 23% 23%
Strongly Disagree 27% 33% 24% 19% 29% 20% 33% 18% 13% 29% 18% 24%
11Economic Recovery Index
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: December 2010, 2011, 2012 & November 2012
Dec'10 Dec'11 Nov'12 Dec'12
11% 14% 16% 15%
I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago
Dec'10 Dec'11 Nov'12 Dec'12
55% 54% 61% 62%
Now is a good time to buy a house for those
who want to
Dec'10 Dec'11 Nov'12 Dec'12
23% 27% 25% 22%
I am saving a lot more than before because of
the recession
Dec'10 Dec'11 Nov'12 Dec'12
21% 22% 22% 22%
I would be happy to bor-row from a bank if I need
to
Dec'10 Dec'11 Nov'12 Dec'12
58% 56% 53% 54%
Paying off debts is my main financial priority
Impact on:• Spending• Saving• Debt• Borrowing
Financial Sentiment Indicators
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
12Economic Recovery Index
Spendthrift: 1
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
December 2012 TOTAL Male Female Under €30k
€30-€60k
€60-€90k
€90k+Has
Child -ren
No Child
-ren
Child Under
17
Child Over
17
Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 353 322 114 40 605 399 345 337
Strongly Agree 4% 5% 3% 3% 5% 5% 10% 4% 4% 5% 2%
Slightly Agree 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 18% 15% 10% 12% 9% 9%
Neither/Nor 15% 15% 14% 12% 16% 19% 15% 14% 17% 9% 15%
Slightly Disagree 28% 30% 26% 25% 34% 26% 39% 25% 32% 24% 27%
Strongly Disagree 42% 37% 47% 51% 35% 32% 21% 47% 35% 51% 46%
13Economic Recovery Index
Spendthrift: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper – who agree/disagree with the statement:“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
December 2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB TescoDunne Stores
Aldi O2Voda fone
3Irish
TimesIrish Indo
Irish Daily Mail
Weighted Sample 1003 357 302 156 360 184 171 237 365 90 205 210 68
Strongly Agree 4% 4% 5% 3% 5% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 7% 5%
Slightly Agree 11% 13% 11% 8% 9% 11% 11% 11% 11% 9% 16% 9% 11%
Neither/Nor 15% 14% 16% 14% 15% 15% 11% 17% 15% 12% 16% 16% 15%
Slightly Disagree 28% 28% 28% 22% 32% 34% 24% 27% 28% 25% 33% 24% 21%
Strongly Disagree 42% 41% 39% 52% 39% 36% 51% 41% 42% 49% 30% 43% 48%
14Economic Recovery Index
Spendthrift: 3
% of Irish adults – by TV service provider, electricity provider, health insurer and customers of other organisations – who agree/disagree with the statement:“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
December 2012 Total Sky UPCSaor -view
Electric Ireland
AirtricityBord Gais
VHI Aviva LibertyIrish Life
eircom
Weighted Sample 1003 410 277 151 536 258 187 233 109 79 277 332
Strongly Agree 4% 4% 6% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4%
Slightly Agree 11% 11% 10% 7% 11% 10% 11% 14% 13% 13% 15% 14%
Neither/Nor 15% 11% 19% 19% 15% 15% 13% 18% 19% 12% 20% 17%
Slightly Disagree 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 31% 24% 34% 27% 29% 27% 28%
Strongly Disagree 42% 45% 37% 43% 43% 39% 46% 30% 34% 41% 33% 37%
15Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2012
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
tO
ctN
ovD
ec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
neJu
lyA
ugS
ept
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
neJu
lyA
ugS
ept
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar Ap
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
tO
ctN
ovD
ec
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
16Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2012
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
AM
ay Jun
Jul
Au
g
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
Fe
bM
ar AM
ayJ
Au
g
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
Fe
bM
ar AM
ay
Au
g
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
Fe
bM
ar AM
ay
Au
g
Oct
No
vD
ec0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
17Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods: 1
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
December 2012 TOTAL Male Female Under €30k
€30-€60k
€60-€90k
€90k+Has
Child -ren
No Child
-ren
Child Under
17
Child Over
17
Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 353 322 114 40 605 399 345 337
Enjoyment 49% 49% 49% 40% 53% 62% 65% 51% 47% 43% 56%
Happiness 47% 45% 49% 39% 46% 62% 59% 46% 47% 44% 47%
Stress 45% 43% 48% 45% 46% 46% 45% 43% 49% 49% 37%
Worry 42% 40% 45% 49% 39% 39% 45% 43% 41% 50% 37%
Anxiety 31% 26% 36% 32% 32% 33% 20% 31% 31% 35% 30%
Boredom 25% 26% 23% 26% 20% 30% 28% 20% 32% 24% 16%
Physical Pain 20% 19% 21% 20% 21% 21% 14% 22% 17% 20% 24%
Sadness 18% 14% 21% 21% 17% 14% 10% 17% 19% 16% 17%
Anger 16% 18% 14% 16% 13% 17% 21% 15% 17% 18% 13%
Fear 10% 11% 10% 11% 11% 9% 16% 10% 11% 12% 8%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: December 2012
18Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper: did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes: December 2012
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
December 2012
Total AIB BOI PTSB TescoDunne Stores
Aldi O2Voda fone
3Irish
TimesIrish Indo
Irish Daily Mail
Weighted Sample 1003 357 302 156 360 184 171 237 365 90 205 210 68
Enjoyment 49% 49% 51% 49% 47% 51% 45% 48% 52% 47% 57% 57% 48%
Happiness 47% 49% 47% 43% 47% 50% 41% 48% 47% 45% 52% 51% 54%
Stress 45% 49% 41% 48% 47% 42% 50% 45% 45% 52% 47% 43% 54%
Worry 42% 46% 41% 38% 41% 42% 48% 46% 37% 44% 39% 40% 49%
Anxiety 31% 30% 28% 31% 32% 31% 31% 32% 30% 36% 32% 27% 36%
Boredom 25% 25% 24% 21% 25% 26% 27% 20% 23% 30% 22% 24% 29%
Physical Pain 20% 24% 15% 20% 17% 21% 21% 19% 23% 20% 18% 16% 15%
Sadness 18% 17% 17% 20% 20% 18% 14% 16% 19% 18% 16% 15% 14%
Anger 16% 15% 16% 14% 17% 18% 18% 13% 18% 19% 18% 16% 11%
Fear 10% 11% 10% 10% 14% 8% 8% 10% 7% 11% 13% 12% 11%
19Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods: 3
% of Irish adults – by TV service provider, electricity provider, health insurer and customers of other organisations: did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes: December 2012
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
December 2012
Total Sky UPCSaor -view
Electric Ireland
Airtricity
Bord Gais
VHI Aviva LibertyIrish Life
eircom
Weighted Sample 1003 410 277 151 536 258 187 233 109 79 277 332
Enjoyment 49% 51% 52% 51% 50% 52% 46% 58% 56% 47% 61% 53%
Happiness 47% 47% 49% 47% 49% 43% 45% 56% 53% 45% 52% 47%
Stress 45% 45% 45% 49% 44% 44% 51% 46% 33% 50% 32% 43%
Worry 42% 45% 40% 42% 42% 40% 46% 37% 41% 34% 29% 38%
Anxiety 31% 32% 34% 28% 30% 30% 37% 32% 29% 38% 29% 30%
Boredom 25% 23% 23% 28% 25% 21% 27% 20% 18% 19% 20% 20%
Physical Pain 20% 22% 16% 21% 22% 21% 15% 22% 15% 18% 20% 23%
Sadness 18% 15% 20% 16% 17% 17% 21% 15% 11% 16% 14% 14%
Anger 16% 15% 15% 19% 15% 17% 17% 13% 16% 10% 12% 14%
Fear 10% 12% 9% 10% 9% 10% 14% 10% 12% 5% 9% 11%
20Economic Recovery Index
ERI Resources
We have created a dedicated resource on the Amárach website for those interested in exploring our Economic Recovery Index further.
It includes links to previous issues as well as to a spreadsheet containing monthly values for all the component parts of the ERI – and more besides – going right back to April 2009.
There is also a link to a special data visualisation facility we have created in partnership with Delphi Analytics.
Drivers & Drinking
About Amárach
Amárach Research is an independent market research agency, providing a full range of research services to our Irish and international clients. Amárach specialises in turning information into insight; and insight into foresight.
Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and executives manage online, face-to-face and cati surveys (through our call centre); as well as qualitative research including focus groups, in-depths and ethnographic studies. We also delivers a world class field-only service to universities and international agencies.
Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered innovative research techniques and reported on Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the 1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding current Irish consumer and business trends, and shares numerous, free reports and presentations via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our main website: www.amarach.com
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