amárach economic recovery index december 2013
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1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research BriefingDecember 2013(including analysis by main bank; supermarket; mobile network)
© Amárach Research
2Economic Recovery Index
#irlexit
Ireland’s exit from the bailout has boosted consumer confidence about our economic performance and prospects: for the third month in a row our Economic Recovery Index has reached a record high level – up to 31.2.
The improvements in consumer intentions for spending and borrowing noted in November have been sustained into December.
As 2013 and the bailout come to an end, our tracking research (and focus groups) confirm a growing anticipation of recovery and a better alignment between people’s views on the economy and their own personal financial plans.
Of course, sentiment is just that – an emotional reaction to changing circumstances and information: 2014 will show us whether the hoped for recovery can finally become reality.
3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out nearly five years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to December 2013.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 5th-10th December 2013 inclusive.
The full data series is on our website – if you want us to conduct additional analyses (by brands etc) then feel free to get in touch.
4Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our Index continues to improve: reaching 31.2 in December 2013, the third record breaking performance in row:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
Ap
rJu
nJu
lAu
gSe
pO
ctN
ov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
5Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Nov ’13: 26% Dec ’13: 24%
Nov ’13: 36% Dec ’13: 36%
Nov ’13: 32% Dec ’13: 31%
Nov ’13: 5% Dec ’13: 8%
Nov ’13: 0% Dec ’13: 1%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is less than a third the level three years ago:
6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Tables I
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?% choosing each statement:
%
The economic situation in Ireland is
getting worse
The economic situation is bad
but has stabilized
The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement
The economic situation is
getting better and showing clear signs of improvement
The economic situation is good and
almost fully recovered
Economic Recovery
Index
Dec-09 49 31 18 2 0 18.3Dec-10 65 20 14 1 0 12.0Dec-11 59 24 15 2 0 15.1Dec-12 49 28 20 3 0 19.5Nov-13 26 36 32 5 0 29.6Dec-13 24 36 31 8 1 31.2
7Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Tables II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months
time
I feel I am financially
comfortable enough to
make it through the recession
I am optimistic in spite of the
current economic situation
Right now it seems like the
recession is affecting other people more
than it is affecting me
Dec-09 43 45 51 56Dec-10 23 34 41 45Dec-11 22 33 39 43Dec-12 26 32 39 43Nov-13 36 42 49 44Dec-13 37 40 49 43
8Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Tables III
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more relaxed about
spending money than I
was a few months ago
I am saving a lot more than
before because of the
recession
My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly
as possible
I would be happy to
borrow money from a bank if I
need to
Dec-09 17 26 57 29Dec-10 11 23 58 21Dec-11 14 27 56 22Dec-12 15 22 54 22Nov-13 22 24 54 26Dec-13 22 26 55 26
9Economic Recovery Index
Brighter Outlook I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in twelve months’ time”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
December 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1F50+
C2DEF50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Strongly Agree 8% 8% 9% 10% 9% 8% 6% 8% 7% 11% 6%
Slightly Agree 29% 27% 31% 33% 30% 32% 23% 27% 30% 32% 26%
Neither/Nor 13% 14% 13% 14% 14% 16% 8% 14% 14% 12% 14%
Slightly Disagree 22% 22% 21% 21% 20% 20% 30% 20% 26% 23% 21%
Strongly Disagree 23% 26% 20% 16% 19% 18% 31% 29% 18% 18% 27%
10Economic Recovery Index
Brighter Outlook II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by bank/supermarket/mobile network): “Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in twelve months’ time”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
December 2013 TOTAL AIB BOI PTSB Tesco Dunnes Super-valu Aldi O2 Voda -
fone Meteor
Weighted Sample 1000 333 296 155 342 183 80 222 213 354 181
Strongly Agree 8% 6% 10% 9% 9% 8% 11% 7% 7% 9% 7%
Slightly Agree 29% 31% 34% 22% 30% 33% 25% 28% 30% 26% 32%
Neither/Nor 13% 15% 12% 11% 16% 14% 9% 11% 14% 16% 11%
Slightly Disagree 22% 24% 20% 26% 24% 23% 18% 20% 24% 21% 19%
Strongly Disagree 23% 21% 20% 26% 16% 19% 33% 28% 20% 24% 26%
11Economic Recovery Index
Buy Irish I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I always buy Irish when I can”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
December 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1F50+
C2DEF50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Strongly Agree 23% 23% 23% 18% 21% 21% 23% 30% 23% 23% 24%
Slightly Agree 30% 28% 31% 29% 30% 29% 29% 32% 28% 33% 27%
Neither/Nor 24% 24% 24% 26% 24% 27% 27% 17% 28% 26% 22%
Slightly Disagree 11% 11% 11% 14% 11% 12% 13% 9% 12% 9% 13%
Strongly Disagree 8% 8% 7% 9% 9% 7% 5% 8% 7% 7% 9%
12Economic Recovery Index
Buy Irish II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by bank/supermarket/mobile network): “I always buy Irish when I can”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
December 2013 TOTAL AIB BOI PTSB Tesco Dunnes Super-valu Aldi O2 Voda -
fone Meteor
Weighted Sample 1000 333 296 155 342 183 80 222 213 354 181
Strongly Agree 23% 25% 23% 22% 27% 27% 25% 23% 25% 23% 23%
Slightly Agree 28% 34% 34% 26% 28% 39% 32% 33% 31% 29% 28%
Neither/Nor 24% 22% 26% 26% 24% 15% 22% 25% 21% 21% 24%
Slightly Disagree 12% 8% 9% 14% 12% 8% 8% 10% 10% 12% 12%
Strongly Disagree 7% 6% 8% 7% 6% 8% 8% 6% 7% 10% 7%
13Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2013
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
Apr
Jun
Aug Oct
Dec Feb
Apr
June
Aug Oct
Dec Feb
Apr
June
Aug Oct
Dec Feb
Apr
June
Aug Oct
Dec Feb
Apr
June
Aug Oct
Dec
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
14Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2013
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
tO
ctN
ovD
ec Ja Feb
Mar
Apr
May J
July
Aug
Sep
tO
ctN
ovD
ec Ja Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
tO
ctN
ovD
ec Ja Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
tO
ctN
ovD
ec Ja Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
tO
ctN
ovD
ec
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
15Economic Recovery Index
Emotions Summary Table
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes:
% Enjoyment Happ-iness Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
Dec-09 49 52 46 41 33 20 23 18
Dec-10 47 46 48 45 32 19 20 20
Dec-11 52 48 46 45 34 20 21 19
Dec-12 49 47 45 42 31 18 20 16
Nov-13 53 49 45 40 34 22 25 18
Dec-13 51 51 46 43 35 20 23 17
16Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods I
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
December 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1F50+
C2DEF50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Enjoyment 51% 55% 48% 51% 48% 47% 52% 58% 52% 57% 46%
Happiness 51% 49% 53% 54% 51% 56% 45% 51% 52% 54% 48%
Stress 46% 38% 54% 55% 55% 57% 48% 25% 49% 48% 45%
Worry 43% 39% 47% 46% 44% 47% 47% 35% 42% 40% 46%
Anxiety 35% 31% 38% 45% 32% 38% 36% 27% 35% 36% 33%
Boredom 25% 27% 23% 48% 27% 22% 14% 17% 24% 21% 29%
Physical Pain 23% 20% 27% 20% 17% 25% 24% 30% 25% 23% 24%
Sadness 20% 18% 22% 27% 24% 21% 16% 16% 18% 22% 19%
Anger 17% 17% 17% 26% 20% 15% 14% 12% 19% 16% 18%
Fear 13% 11% 14% 21% 13% 13% 12% 7% 14% 13% 13%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: December 2013
17Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods II
Source: Amárach Research, December 2013
December 2013 TOTAL AIB BOI PTSB Tesco Dunnes Super-valu Aldi O2 Voda -
fone Meteor
Weighted Sample 1000 333 296 155 342 183 80 222 213 354 181
Enjoyment 51% 49% 53% 52% 52% 54% 54% 43% 54% 51% 53%
Happiness 51% 51% 58% 46% 48% 53% 54% 56% 52% 50% 56%
Stress 46% 49% 44% 45% 47% 43% 40% 52% 43% 45% 53%
Worry 43% 44% 39% 44% 41% 40% 38% 52% 39% 46% 37%
Anxiety 35% 36% 37% 31% 36% 31% 28% 41% 30% 38% 28%
Boredom 25% 25% 24% 26% 25% 28% 23% 27% 21% 23% 23%
Physical Pain 23% 22% 23% 25% 23% 19% 33% 25% 24% 19% 26%
Sadness 20% 19% 20% 23% 23% 18% 15% 23% 17% 21% 17%
Anger 17% 16% 18% 17% 17% 20% 17% 16% 16% 17% 15%
Fear 13% 13% 12% 16% 14% 12% 6% 14% 9% 13% 12%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: December 2013 (by main bank/supermarket/mobile network)
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