analysis of narccap results for extremes in the canadian columbia basin

Analysis of NARCCAP results for Analysis of NARCCAP results for extremes in the Canadian Columbia extremes in the Canadian Columbia

BasinBasin

S. R. Sobie, Climate Scientist, PCICT.Q. Murdock, Climate Scientist, PCICH. D. Eckstrand, GIS Analyst, PCIC

NARCCAP User’s Workshop APR 2012

Study area

Q: Why do extremes matter?A: Users are planning for them!

Columbia Basin Trust: www.cbt.org

Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative

Indices of extremes‣Specialized indices (fire, wind, rain-on-snow)‣Return periods (5, 10, 25, …) – fit GEV‣CLIMDEX: 27 indices

- annual (monthly) resolution- e.g. # days above 90th %-ile, warm spells, annual

days with precipitation > 10 mm, etc.- officially adopted by WMO → ETCCDI- similar to STARDEX- R and Fortran code available- based on daily Tmin, Tmax, and P (from Frich et al. 2002)

2050s GCM Anomalies

2050s Annual TX90p, TN10p Ratios

TX90p

TN10p

2.6 2.0 2.0 1.7

0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4

2050s Seasonal TMax, TMin Anomalies

TXx

TNn

2.2 0.7 2.6 2.6

2.9 1.6 3.6 3.6

2050s Annual R95p Percent Anomalies

4 7 6 5

4 6 6 2

2050s Seasonal RX1Day Anomalies

2.8 1.6 -0.1 2.6

-0.2 1.0 0.3 2.5

RX1Day

Summary

1. People in BC need information on climate extremes for adaptation planning

2. RCMs are useful for this3. Mid-century: more extreme warm events, precipitation

extremes4. Seasonal projections are necessary5. Other indices of extremes: report (soon) at

www.PacificClimate.org & paper to follow

AcknowledgmentsTrevor Murdock – Project Supervisor

Hailey Eckstrand – GIS wizard Seth McGinnis – NARCCAP supportGerd Bürger – Analysis of extremes

James Hiebert, Dave Bronaugh – Data support

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Thank you

Comments, questions, criticism: ssobie@uvic.ca

More info on PCIC: www.PacificClimate.org

Data sources• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project

(NARCCAP ): winter season (Dec-Jan-Feb)• NCEP-DEO AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2): M. Kanamitsu, W. Ebisuzaki, J.

Woollen, S-K Yang, J.J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter. 1631-1643, Nov 2002, Bul. of the Atmos. Met. Soc.

• CRU TS2.1: interpolated station observations 50 km resolution: Mitchell and Jones, 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatology, 25, 693-712, Doi: 10.1002/joc.1181.

• Additional observations: Environment Canada climate stations, CANGRID, UDEL, NARR2m, VIC driving data

• XDS downscaling conducted at PCIC for PIEVC project

Regional Index Projections

Index Units Min 10 25 50 75 90 MaxP mm -56 7 30 54 92 137 353P % -6 1 4 6 9 12 20T °C 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.1TXx °C 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.6 3.3TNn °C 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.5TN10p Ratio 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5TX10p Ratio 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6TN90p Ratio 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.2TX90p Ratio 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.4 3.0RX1day mm -1.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.4 4.8RX5day mm -3.5 0.0 0.9 2.2 3.5 4.5 10.0CDD Days -17 -2 -1 0 1 3 12CWD Days -4 -1 0 0 1 2 5R95pTOT mm -25 5 18 42 72 101 232PRCPTOT mm -54 7 30 53 91 138 353

-Spatial percentiles of results

-Easily quantify projection ranges

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Local: RCM threshold scaling & statistical downscaling

RCM threshold

equal probabilities

design threshold

GCM vs. RCM71-00 baseline and 2050s anomaly

Extreme warm temperature5-year event

2.1 2.4 1.6 3.6

3.7 3.4 1.8 2.1

`

Extreme warm temperature25-year event

5.5 4.0 3.0 10.2

10.5 2.8 2.1 9.8

2050s Seasonal Precipitation Anomalies

Projection presentation

CGCM3 driven RCM3

CGCM3 driven CRCM

CGCM3 driven WRFG

HADCM3 driven HRM3

GFDL driven RCM3

CCSM driven CRCM

CCSM driven WRFG

CCSM driven MM5I

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