analytics on time series data · 2017-11-09 · §goal:predict driver actions 1 sec before they...

Analytics on Time Series Data

Jure LeskovecStanford UniversityChan Zuckerberg BiohubPinterest

2Jure Leskovec

Sensors are Everywhere

§ Sequences of time stamped observations

Jure Leskovec, Stanford 3

Sensors are everywhere

I In many applications, we generate large sequences of timestampedobservations

– “Sensors” have a broad definition

Introduction 2

Sensor Data: Time Series§ Sensors generate lots of time-series

data

Jure Leskovec, Stanford 4

Network inference from time series data

I Convert a sequence of timestamped sensor observations into atime-varying network

Introduction 5

Sensors à Time Series

§ But such time series data are:§ High-dimensional§ Unlabeled§ High-velocity§ Dynamic§ Heterogeneous

Jure Leskovec (@jure), Stanford University 5

Network inference from time series data

I Convert a sequence of timestamped sensor observations into atime-varying network

Introduction 5

Sensors: Much data, no insights§ It is hard to obtain insights:

§ Sensor readings are interdependent and correlated

§ As the environment changes dependencies might change

§ Sensors might fail§ Readings might be asynchronous

Jure Leskovec, Stanford 6

Raw Data Structured Data Learning Algorithm Model

Downstream prediction task

Feature Engineering

Automatically learn the features

Sensors: Much data, no insights

§ Sensor data is hard to work with§ The algorithms must be:

§ Scalable: Large amounts of raw data over long time series

§ Robust: Must apply to lots of different applications

Jure Leskovec, Stanford 7

Challenge: ML & Insights

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Raw Data Structured Data Learning Algorithm Model

Downstream prediction task

Feature Engineering

Automatically learn the features

§ (Supervised) Machine Learning Lifecycle: This feature, that feature. Every single time!

Jure Leskovec (@jure), Stanford University

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How do we describe the structure of the time series so we can obtain insights and make predictions?

Discovering Structure§ Value in “breaking down” the time series

into a sequence of states:§ Allows us to draw interpretable conclusions

from the data

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Segmentation and Clustering§ In general, the “states” are not predefined

§ We do know what they are, nor what they refer to…

§ Instead, we need to discover these states in an unsupervised way, while simultaneously segmenting the time series into the states!

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How to Describe StatesNetworks are great to encode

structure and dependencies in data

Jure Leskovec, Stanford 12

Network inference from time series data

I Convert a sequence of timestamped sensor observations into atime-varying network

Introduction 5

Sens

ors

Depe

nden

cies

Network Inference via the Time-Varying Graphical Lasso. D. Hallac, Y. Park, S. Boyd, J. Leskovec.ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD), 2017.

Our Approach§ Our approach: Given a set of sensor

data, we learn temporal dependency networks between different sensors

§ The network is not static but can change over time§ Allows us to gain insights into the

process and detect anomalies

Jure Leskovec, Stanford 13

States and Dependencies

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State

Sensor Dependency network of state A, B

TICC Problem Setup§ Formal definition:

where,

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Toeplitz Inverse Covariance-Based Clustering of Multivariate Time Series Data. D. Hallac, S. Vare, S. Boyd, J. Leskovec. ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD), 2017

TICC: Scalability

§ Can scale to problems with tens of millions of observations!

Jure Leskovec, Stanford 16

Scalability

I ADMM can solve for millions of variables in minutes!

– Centralized solver (CVXPY) explodes computationally

Number of Unknowns TVGL Interior-Point100 0.9 37.9360 0.9 5362.7200,000 48.3 -5 million 706.4 -

Results 18

CVXPYSnapVX

SnapVX: A Network-Based Convex Optimization Solver. D. Hallac, C. Wong, S. Diamond, A. Sharang, R. Sosič, S. Boyd, J. Leskovec. Journal of Machine Learning Research (JMLR), 18(4):1−5, 2017.

Case Study: Cars§ Car driving sessions:

§ 36,000 samples @ 10Hz

§ We observed 7 sensors:§ Brake pedal position§ Forward (X-)acceleration§ Lateral (Y-)acceleration§ Steering wheel angle§ Vehicle velocity§ Engine RPM§ Gas pedal position

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Cars – “Turning” State

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Cars– “Stopping” State

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TICC Results: Car Data§ We run TICC with K=5 states

(selected via BIC)§ The betweenness centrality score of

each node in each state/network:

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Resulting StatesGreen = straight, White = slowing down, Red = turning, Blue = speeding upResults are very consistent across the data!

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Predicting the Future(but without feature engineering)

Problem Setup§ Dataset: Automobile data containing

1,400 sensors recording at 10 Hz.

§ Goal: Predict driver actions 1 sec before they occur§ Left/Right blinker§ Accelerate (gas pedal > threshold)§ Hard braking (brake pedal < threshold)

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Driver Identification Using Automobile Sensor Data from a Single Turn. D. Hallac, A. Sharang, R. Stahlmann, A. Lamprecht, M. Huber, M. Roehder, R. Sosic, J. Leskovec IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), 2016.

Neural Networks§ Multi-layer RNN architecture:

§ The output of the first LSTM is passed as input to a second LSTM)

§ 3,000h of driving, 1400 sensors, at 10Hz=150 billion datapoints

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Time-Series Analysis

2/21/17 25

SparseTSV SNAPBinaryFormat

AsynchronousSignalArray

Task-SpecificData

ProcessResults

Space-EfficientDataConversion

DataFiltering

Analysis

Results – Brake Pedal

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0.934 Test Set AUC (0.935 Training AUC)

§ AUC of predicting whether the driver will press the break pedal:

Predicting Driver Actions

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Predicting Driver Actions

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Predicting Driver Actions

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Failure Prediction§ Dataset: Boiler data containing 100

sensors at 1Hz for 6-12 months§ Goal: Predict component failures 7

days before they occur

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Preliminary Results§ Very promising results across various

deep learning models!

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Conclusion§ Complex engineered

systems§ High-dimensional unlabeled

time series data collected in real-time

§ We need tools to understand these data as well as to make accurate predictions

Jure Leskovec, Stanford University 32

Sensors are everywhere

I In many applications, we generate large sequences of timestampedobservations

– “Sensors” have a broad definition

Introduction 2

Thanks!§ Joint work with D. Halla,c Y. Park, S. Boyd, R.

Sosic, S. Vare, A. Sharang, C. Wong, S. Diamond.

§ Papers:§ Network Inference via the Time-Varying Graphical Lasso. D. Hallac, Y. Park, S. Boyd, J. Leskovec.ACM SIGKDD

International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD), 2017.

§ Toeplitz Inverse Covariance-Based Clustering of Multivariate Time Series Data. D. Hallac, S. Vare, S. Boyd, J. Leskovec. ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD), 2017.

§ Learning the Network Structure of Heterogeneous Data via Pairwise Exponential Markov Random Fields. Y. Park, D. Hallac, S. Boyd, J. Leskovec. Artificial Intelligence and Statistics Conference (AISTATS), 2017.

§ SnapVX: A Network-Based Convex Optimization Solver. D. Hallac, C. Wong, S. Diamond, A. Sharang, R. Sosič, S. Boyd, J. Leskovec. Journal of Machine Learning Research (JMLR), 18(4):1−5, 2017.

§ Driver Identification Using Automobile Sensor Data from a Single Turn. D. Hallac, A. Sharang, R. Stahlmann, A. Lamprecht, M. Huber, M. Roehder, R. Sosic, J. Leskovec IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), 2016.

§ Network Lasso: Clustering and Optimization in Large Graphs. D. Hallac, J. Leskovec, S. Boyd. ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD), 2015.

Jure Leskovec, Stanford University 33

http://snap.stanford.edu@jure

THANKS!

Jure Leskovec, Stanford University 34