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Annual Energy Outlook 2016: LFMM preliminary results

AEO2016 Liquid Fuels Market Module ResultsOffice of Petroleum, Natural Gas & Biofuels AnalysisFebruary 24, 2016 | Washington, DC

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSESDO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Discussion topics

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 2

• AEO2016 vs AEO2015 changes in LFMM

• Key preliminary results– Crude and product prices– Crude production, imports, exports– Product exports– Refinery utilization– Biofuels production

AEO2016 vs AEO2015 changes in LFMM

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 3

• Crude– Crude exports are allowed, unrestricted– Revised methodology for determining by-grade crude price response

• Products– Modified elasticities representing international product import and export curves (IEM) – All product curves are extended to 14 steps

• Logistics– Updated pipeline and rail capacities and tariffs

• Policy– Reinstated ethanol and biodiesel tax credits through 2016– New RFS issued November 2015

• Updated pricing of fuel oil in Census Division 9

Brent spot price

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 4

AEO2015

AEO2016

Brent-WTI spread

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 5

AEO2016

AEO2015

Motor gasoline price

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 6

AEO2016

AEO2015

Diesel fuel price

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 7

AEO2016

AEO2015

Domestic crude oil production

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 8

AEO2016

AEO2015

Domestic NGPL production

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 9

AEO2016

AEO2015

Net imports of crude oil

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 10

AEO2016

AEO2015

Crude oil exports (mainly to Canada)

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 11

AEO2016

AEO2015

Product exports

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 12

AEO2016

AEO2015

Net import share of product supplied

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 13

AEO2016

AEO2015

Refinery utilization

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 14

AEO2016

AEO2015

Motor gasoline consumption declines, with small increase in E85 consumption

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 15

AEO2015

AEO2015

AEO2016

AEO2016

Total motor gasolineconsumption

Total E85consumption

Total ethanol production remains steady, with lower levels from cellulosic sources

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 16

Total ethanol production

Cellulosic ethanol production

AEO2015

AEO2015

AEO2016

AEO2016

Residual fuel oil price in Census Division 9- AEO2016

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change 17

Resid fuel oil price

Brent price

Contacts

18

John Powell: john.powell@eia.gov

Mindi Farber-DeAnda: mindi.farber-deanda@eia.gov

Beth May: elizabeth.may@eia.gov

Adrian Geagla: adrian.geagla@eia.gov

Next Working Group MeetingTentatively planned for summer 2016.

Will present assumptions for AEO2017.

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

For more information

19Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, & Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington DC, February 24, 2016 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are subject to change

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