anticipatory intelligence

Anticipatory Intelligence:

Four Enablers

New Trust Models

1

Publicly Available Information

(“Big Data” OSINT)

Proxy Variable Selection Radical Quantification

Anticipatory Intelligence:

Four Enablers

New Trust Models

2

Publicly Available Information

(“Big Data” OSINT)

Proxy Variable Selection Radical Quantification

3

20th Century Intelligence

4

20th Century Intelligence

Tracy Morrow (aka “Ice T”)

How can you identify a

legitimate hip-hop artist

(versus someone who just gets

up and rhymes)?

http://www.npr.org/2005/08/30/4824690/original-gangster-rapper-and-actor-ice-t

5

Tracy Morrow (aka “Ice T”)

How can you identify a

legitimate hip-hop artist

(versus someone who just gets

up and rhymes)?

“Game knows game, baby.”

20th Century Intelligence

6

Tracy Morrow (aka “Ice T”)

How can you identify a

legitimate hip-hop artist

(versus someone who just gets

up and rhymes)?

“If you have expert knowledge,

then you are capable of

answering complex questions

by interpreting domain specific

information.” [paraphrased]

20th Century Intelligence

21st Century Intelligence

• August Gorman carried out a

plot to grab fractions of a

penny from a corporate payroll

system. http://goo.gl/vAScel

7

IMDB: 4.9/10Rotten Tomatoes: 26/100

21st Century Intelligence

• Peter Gibbons hatches a plot

to write a computer virus that

grab fractions of a penny from

a corporate retirement

account. http://goo.gl/rDg1U

• Known in security circles as a

salami attack.

8

IMDB: 7.9/10Rotten Tomatoes: 79/100

21st Century Intelligence

• Peter Gibbons hatches a plot

to write a computer virus that

grab fractions of a penny from

a corporate retirement

account. http://goo.gl/rDg1U

• Known in security circles as a

salami attack.

9

IMDB: 7.9/10Rotten Tomatoes: 79/100

Takeaway point: Little bits of value (information) provide deep insights in the aggregate

Anticipatory Intelligence:

Four Enablers

New Trust Models

10

Publicly Available Information

(“Big Data” OSINT)

Proxy Variable Selection Radical Quantification

11

The Original “Big Data”

1880 US Census

•50 million people

•Data included: age, gender, number

of insane people in household*

•Took 7 years to tabulate

*Credit to Ken Krugler for this factoid: http://www.censusrecords.com/content/1880_census

12

The Original “Big Data”

1880 US Census

•50 million people

•Data included: age, gender, number

of insane people in household*

•Took 7 years to tabulate

1890

•63 million people

•Additional data: citizenship and

military service

•New technology: Hollerith Tabulating

System

•Took 6 weeks to tabulate (76x faster)

*Credit to Ken Krugler for this factoid: http://www.censusrecords.com/content/1880_census

13

The Original “Big Data”

1880 US Census

•50 million people

•Data included: age, gender, number

of insane people in household*

•Took 7 years to tabulate

1890

•63 million people

•Additional data: citizenship and

military service

•New technology: Hollerith Tabulating

System

•Took 6 weeks to tabulate (76x faster)

Takeaway

• Insights are unlocked by looking at

aggregate behaviors of groups in

society

• New technology is required

*Credit to Ken Krugler for this factoid: http://www.censusrecords.com/content/1880_census

Social Media: OSINT Explodes

14

More Observations

Enable New Analysis

15

Geolocated Social Media:

New Insights in Behavior

16

Anticipatory Intelligence:

Four Enablers

New Trust Models

17

Publicly Available Information

(“Big Data” OSINT)

Proxy Variable Selection Radical Quantification

Pizza Orders at the Pentagon

18http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1991-01-16/news/9101050225_1_frank-meeks-pizza-pentagon

19

Canadian Flu Research

http://gunther-eysenbach.blogspot.com/ Infodemiology paper: http://goo.gl/aeUZtA

20

Google Flu Trends

NPR: http://goo.gl/Iv7A87

NYT: http://goo.gl/mNyAi7

21

Correlation:

Box Office Hit Prediction

Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success: http://goo.gl/BWf7H1

Correlation Does Not Equal Causation

http://xkcd.com/552/

Anticipatory Intelligence:

Four Enablers

New Trust Models

23

Publicly Available Information

(“Big Data” OSINT)

Proxy Variable Selection Radical Quantification

To Anticipate,

First Count Things

24http://www.sesamestreet.org/muppets/count-von-count

25

Famous Counting Advocate

26

Famous Counting Advocate

William Thomson, 1st Baron Kelvin

Aggregation:

A Tale of Two Products

The distribution we’re looking for looks like the #1 hand:Responses concentrated in the most positive category,With very few responses that were unfavorable.

Counting + Aggregation:

A Tale of Two Products

Google Trends: Football

29

https://goo.gl/2efhjh

Anticipatory Intelligence

in 30 Seconds

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1.Decide what information you trust

2.Acquire information from open sources

3.Look for proxy variables

4.Apply quantification + visualization

31

Contact information

Abe Usher

Email: abe@thehumangeo.com

Twitter: @abeusher

LinkedIn: http://goo.gl/DUxZOP

Presentation slides: http://www.slideshare.net/abeusher/anticipatory-intelligence