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“Future Scenarios for the Shared & Collaborative Economy in 2030 (ShE_2030)”

Enric Bas & Ana Bossler

FUTURLAB-University of Alicante (Spain)

20th Futures Conference: “Constructing Social Futures- Sustainability, Responsibility and Power”. FFRC-Turku (Finland). 12-13 June, 2019.

• Enric BAS holds a PhD in Sociology, is the Director of FUTURLAB-University of Alicante and member of the SFRI-Strategic Foresight for Research and Innovation in Horizon 2020 experts group of the European Commission. Professor of Social Change & Communication at the Faculty of Economics-University of Alicante. Author, Consultant and Researcher with more than 20 years of experience in Futures Methodology and Applied Foresight.

• Ana BOSSLER holds a LL.B. in Social Sciences and Law (PUC-Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil), MSc in International Economics (University of Buenos Aires, Argentina), LL.M Law (UMH, Spain). Chief Economist in Foreign Trade at OFTEX International Consulting (Spain). Associated Researcher in FUTURLAB-UA. Entrepeneur, Researcher, Author, Analyst and Consultant (UBA, ANUAR-UN, etc..) with a more than 10 years of experience on Applied International Economics.

• Enric BAS holds a PhD in Sociology, is the Director of FUTURLAB-University of Alicante and member of the SFRI-Strategic Foresight for Research and Innovation in Horizon 2020 experts group of the European Commission. Professor of Social Change & Communication at the Faculty of Economics-University of Alicante. Author, Consultant and Researcher with more than 20 years of experience in Futures Methodology and Applied Foresight.

• Ana BOSSLER holds a LL.B. in Social Sciences and Law (PUC-Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil), MSc in International Economics (University of Buenos Aires, Argentina), LL.M Law (UMH-Spain). Chief Economist in Foreign Trade at OFTEX Consulting (Spain). Associated Researcher in FUTURLAB-UA. Entrepeneur, Researcher, Author, Analyst and Consultant (UBA, ANUAR-UN, etc..) with a more than 10 years of experience on Applied International Economics

H2020-8th R&I Framework Programme

ERDF (European Regional Development Fund)

Interreg-MED Subprogram

INTERREG Program

openDOORS Project

ShE_2030

REGIONS (per Country) CONSIDERED for ShE_2030

The REPORT INDEX: ShE_2030

• The Project OpenDoors uses sharing and collaborative as an umbrella term whichholds at least five of the seven characteristics described as follow:

• Self-awareness• Technical interface. • Peer-to peer • Reuse of idle assets• Value framework• Social capital• Trust and reputation

OPEN DOORS ShE_2030: what is sharing economy

FUTURES MINDMAP

• 90 (6*3*5) KEY DRIVERS CONSIDERED for ShE_2030 / Cross Impact Matrix

• DIALECTICS OF CHANGE #1: HOW SOCIAL SUBSYSTEMS are impacting ShE

• DIALECTICS OF CHANGE #2: HOW ShE is impactIng SOCIAL SUBSYSTEMS

90 (6*3*5) KEY DRIVERS CONSIDERED for ShE_2030

DIALECTICS OF CHANGE #1:HOW SOCIAL SUBSYSTEMS are impacting ShE

DIALECTICS OF CHANGE #2:HOW ShE is impactIng SOCIAL SUBSYSTEMS

ShE_2030: the Mediterranean region

Source: Eurostat, 2018Global Entrepreneurship Index, 2018

Countries Unemployment (under25y)

Self-employed

Entrepreneurship Index

MSMEs Shadow economy

Spain 36.8% 16.1% 34th 99.88%total companies/74.85% employment

17.2% GDP

Italy 32.2% 21% 42th 99.92% total companies/79.74% employment

19.8% GDP

Croatia 24.5% 14% 54th 99.7% total companies/ 68.7% employment

28.4% GDP

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

• SCENARIO #1 (Extrapolative) Balancing Neoliberalism: the Shared & CollaborativeEconomy as (new) third way

• SCENARIO #2 (Disruptive) Hypercapitalism: Neoliberalism on steroids, or theCollaborative paradigm as trojan horse

• SCENARIO #3 (Utopian) Postcapitalism, or the Sharing Economy as the poster childof the 4th Industrial Revolution

SCENARIO #1 (Extrapolative)Balancing Neoliberalism: the Shared & Collaborative Economy as (new) third way

More Civil Society / STate

REFORMIST scenario –from the point view of Regulatory

SHARED data ownership (public + private)

BALANCE in the management of information concerning private life

PUBLIC CONTROL for guaranteeing privacy issues

TRANSPARENCY in massive-data based business

STIMULATION of co-creation, co-owning, etc…

CHANGE in the dominant lifestyle pattern moving away from massive consumerism

SCENARIO #2 (Disruptive)Hypercapitalism: Neoliberalism on steroids, or the Collaborative paradigm as trojan horse

More Market

DISTOPIAN vision –from the point of view of general expectancies

DIGITALIZATION of social life 360º

TOTAL surveillance and dependence

DATA as commodities

FOCUSING on Transactions instead of production

MONOPOLISTIC concentration

STATE in the crossroad

SCENARIO #3 (Utopian)Postcapitalism, or the Sharing Economy as the poster child of the 4th Industrial Revolution

More Technology

EXPERIENCE (even fake-Virtual Reality) over ownership

TOTAL SYNERGY of digitalization –IoT- with VR, AI, Biotech, etc…

DEMOCRATIZATION of business

BLOCKCHAIN impacts all

UNLOCK of economic potential in peripheral economies

SMART CONTRACTS and the dillution of state and corporation

CONCLUSIONS

OPEN FUTURE(S)

To be created around 5 main axes:

o THE PUBLIC SECTOR (States and their regulatory role)

o THE PRIVATE SECTOR (Organizations managing digital platforms and devices)

o TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT (opening new possibilities > disruptiveinnovations)

o DATA OWNERSHIP (essential since ShE is trust-based)

o THE CIVIL SOCIETY (people´s expectancies and ability to actively createcommunities and participate in social change)

…more in the full paper.

Kiitos paljon!

Thank you very much!

Enric: bas@ua.es

Ana: adesouza@oftex.es