argetipe soos waargeneem in gemeentes gdn- communitas feb 2009 frederick marais

Argetipe soos waargeneem in gemeentes

GDN- Communitas

Feb 2009

Frederick Marais

Do we understand the structure of our problems?

Events & Symptoms

(tyranny of the urgent)

Patterns over time

(trends & forecasts)

The structure at work

Variables and their dynamic causal interplay.

(Causes patterns and events)

Systems Thinking involves - looking at all 3 levelsSystems Thinking involves - looking at all 3 levels

L

H

Levera

ge a

nd

learn

ing

Variable

• It acts (causes) and is acted upon (caused)• Noun or noun phrases (the name of something)• Neutral• Can vary (up or down)• Not action words (verbs)

• Level of motivation• Number of complaints• Amount of resourcesTest: Can I make a time plot of it?

Link• A arousal relationship, not a process step• Only points one way ― causality works in only

one direction

A Baffects

OR

Changes in

A Bwill produce

Changes in

Feedback loop • Systems Thinking is thinking in loops rather than straight lines

• Basic premise: Parts of a system are all connected directly or indirectly ― therefore a change in one will ripple out to affect all the others. The effect of this is to eventually ripple out and return to the original variable.

A

C

D

B

Basic language in System Thinking

Acme Co - The Two Views

What’s the difference?

Traditional view Systems Thinking view

One problem, one solution

Linear thinking

Someone else knows better - best practices/benchmarks

Quantitative

Many problems, few solutions (80/20 principle)

Causal thinking

We have the solutions to our own problems

Qualitative

Acme Company - One View

Problems

• Billing Errors

• Late deliveries

• Excessive sales time on new accounts

• Systems poorly used

Solutions

• Rewrite billing manual & retrain

• Install auto-mated delivery routing system

• Create new account policies

• Develop new systems and documentation

Time Trends

Sales

Effort on New Accounts

Profitability

Billing errors & Delivery problems

Time Trends

Sales

Effort on New Accounts

Profitability

Billing errors & Delivery problems

Consultants start Consultants finish

Acme Company - One View

Acme Company - One View

Time Trends

Sales

Effort on New Accounts

Profitability

Billing errors & Delivery problems

Consultants start Consultants finish

Fixes that backfire

Ds seenergievlakke

Ds se funksioneringin gemeente

Gemeente setevredenheidmet bediening

Ds se werkslading R

Ontvanklik virhulp van buite

Ds ontvangtyd vir verposing

Gereedheid v ds virproses in gemeente

Druk opkerkraad

Gesprek metgemeente

Fixes that backfire

-

-+

-+

+ +

+

+

+

+

+

Die rooi pyle is die b-loop wat die r-loop omdraai

• Die aanvanklike R loop loop hom in ‘n B loop van onverwagse uitkomste vas

• Wat op sy beurt die R-loop omdraai in ‘n vicious sirkel

• En so word goed bedoelde hulp ‘n nadeel vir die gemeente

Limits to SuccessLimits to Success

Limits to Success

Virtuous Cycle Limiting Process

Sad but true, nothing grows forever. What often happens with a reinforcing structure is that there are limits to growth, which have not yet kicked in. If you know where they are, maybe you don’t have to run into them, or, at least, avoid them as long as possible.

Limits to Success

Dinamiese leierskap R

Translates to this behavior over time…..

If we can do it, so can they.

s

s

Groei in die gemeente

Druk op bronne

B

Energie van leieskap

s

s

o

Limits to Success

Exercise: Limits to Success

A’s and B’s Activities

A’s and B’s Success

Accidental AdversariesAccidental

Adversaries

Accidental Adversaries

The Accidental Adversaries structure is a composed of (a minimum of) two reinforcing loops and two balancing loops. Overall system growth is driven by a virtuous

reinforcing structure. Two balancing structures (whose effects create a vicious reinforcing structure) limit the growth of the overall growth engine. This is one of the

more difficult archetypes to understand, but essentially it is two fixes backfiring on each other.

Accidental Adversaries

Broker: Friend or Foe?

Underwriter A’s Profit

Direct SellingCommission Paid to Broker B

Broker B’s Income

Marketing of Competitor’s Products

# Policies Sold for Underwriter A

R & D

Product Diversity

Satisfaction of Client need

Maintenance of Client Relationship

# Contract/ Policy Renewals

o

s

o

s

o

s

o

s

s

s

ss

s

s

sR3

B1

B2

R4

Managing Accidental Adversaries

• Get together and understand the whole picture

• Strengthening your mutual understanding of each other’s needs and the criteria by which each of you define success

• Remove or weaken the constraints in your partner’s system that make your own solution harmful

• Reaffirm the intent of the partnership and acknowledge the damage that was done was unintentional