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Assessment of Climate Change Risk to Municipal Infrastructure - City of London
Lisa Bowering, Angela Peck, and Slobodan P. SimonovicThe University of Western Ontario
The Institute for Catastrophic Loss ReductionThe University of Waterloo
Key messages
Municipal infrastructure is vulnerable to climate change
Adaptation cost can be very high Adaptation = Risk management Comprehensive risk assessment methodology is
required to gather and examine available data in order to develop an understanding of the relevant climate effects and their interactions with infrastructure.
Time to act is now
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Outline
Methodology introduction and data Climate modelling Hydrologic modelling Hydraulic modelling
Risk assessment Conclusions
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Study team
Slobodan P. Simonovic, Professor (UWO, ICLR) Donald H. Burn, Professor (UW) Dan Sandink, Manager (ICLR) Hyung-Il Eum, PostDoctoral Fellow (UWO) Angela Peck, MESc candidate (UWO) Lisa Bowering, MESc candidate (UWO) Dragan Sredojevic, MESc candidate (UWO).
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Research methodologyInput
Climate Scenarios Weather Generator
Temperature, Precipitation
Rainfall-runoff transformationHydrologic Model
Floodplain mappingHydraulic Model
Risk Assessment
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Research methodology Data Input
Inventory of infrastructure components; Data gathering and sufficiency analysis;
Climate Modelling Existing climate scenario Wet climate scenario
Hydrologic Modelling HEC-HMS model
Hydraulic Modelling HEC-RAS model
Risk Assessment Qualitative vulnerability assessment; Quantitative vulnerability assessment; and
Prioritization of the infrastructure components based on the level of risk
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City of London, Ontario, Canada
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Spatial data
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Infrastructure data input
Buildings Transportation
Roadways Bridges
Critical Infrastructure Schools Hospitals and Emergency Services
Barriers Dams, Dikes, Other flood control
infrastructure Sewer Infrastructure
Wastewater Treatment Plants Outlets Sanitary and Storm Systems
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Climate modelling
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Input
Climate Scenarios Weather Generator
Temperature, Precipitation
Rainfall-runoff transformationHydrologic Model
Floodplain mappingHydraulic Model
Risk Assessment
Climate scenarios
Lower bound climate scenario No modifications due to climate change
and future emissions Weather generator with perturbation of
historical data
Upper bound climate scenario Recommended by the previous study Data modified by GCM
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Choice of climate scenario
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
CSI
RO
Mk2
b_B1
1_PR
GIS
SE-R
_B1_
PR
GIS
SE-R
_A2_
PR
NC
ARC
CSM
3_A2
_PR
NC
ARC
CSM
3_B1
_PR
CSI
RO
MK3
_SR
A1B_
PR
CSI
RO
MK3
_SR
B1_P
R
NC
ARC
CSM
3_A1
B_PR
CG
CM
3T47
_PR
_B1
CSI
RO
MK3
_SR
A2_P
R
CG
CM
3T47
_PR
_A1B
NC
ARPC
M_A
1B_P
R
CG
CM
3T47
_PR
_A2
NC
ARPC
M_A
2_PR
GIS
SAO
M_B
1_PR
MIR
OC
3.2_
MED
RES
_A2…
MIR
OC
3.2_
MED
RES
_A1…
GIS
SAO
M_A
1B_P
R
HAD
GEM
1_A1
B_PR
HAD
GEM
1_A2
_PR
ECH
O-G
_B1_
PR
CG
CM
3T63
_PR
_A2
MIR
OC
3.2_
MED
RES
_B1…
ECH
O-G
_A2_
PR
CG
CM
3T63
_PR
_A1B
GFD
LCM
2.1_
B1_P
R
CG
CM
3T63
_PR
_B1
GFD
L30_
A21_
PR
ECH
O-G
_A1B
_PR
Miro
c3.2
_HIR
ES_B
1_PR
GFD
LCM
2.1_
A2_P
R
HAD
CM
3_B1
_PR
GFD
LCM
2.1_
A1B_
PR
CC
SRN
IES_
B21_
PR
HAD
CM
3_A1
B_PR
HAD
CM
3_A2
_PR
Miro
c3.2
_HIR
ES_A
1B_P
R
ECH
AM5O
M_A
1B_P
R
ECH
AM5O
M_B
1_PR
ECH
AM5O
M_A
2_PR
Prec
(mm
)
Pmean (2050s)
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Weather generator
K-NN model Successful applications (Yates,
2003; Sharif and Burn, 2006) Ability to generate
meteorological variables out of the historical range
Combined with Principle Component Analysis to reduce computational burden
Use of 15 stations and 3 variables (precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature)
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Weather generator
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Hydrologic modelling
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Input
Climate Scenarios Weather Generator
Temperature, Precipitation
Rainfall-runoff transformationHydrologic Model
Floodplain mappingHydraulic Model
Risk Assessment
Hydrologic modelling Modification of HEC-HMS Nesting of sub-basins
Medway (5 sub-basins) Stoney (6 sub-basins) Pottersburg (4 sub-basins) Dingman (16 sub-basins)
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Hydrologic modelling
More frequent floodingMore severe floods
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Hydraulic modelling
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Input
Climate Scenarios Weather Generator
Temperature, Precipitation
Rainfall-runoff transformationHydrologic Model
Floodplain mappingHydraulic Model
Risk Assessment
Hydraulic modelling Input: Streamflows
from hydrologic model
HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS
Output: floodplains to represent flood extent and depth for use in risk analysis
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Hydraulic modelling
100 yr 250 yr
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Risk assessment
2323
Input
Climate Scenarios Weather Generator
Temperature, Precipitation
Rainfall-runoff transformationHydrologic Model
Floodplain mappingHydraulic Model
Risk Assessment
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Risk assessment
Risk IndicesConsequences
-Loss of Function -Loss of Equipment-Loss of Structure
Infrastructure Flood Risk Assessment due to Climate Change
Risk Tables
Risk AssessmentOutput
Risk Maps
Monetary Value
Probability
Risk = Probability of hazard x Σ[Monetary damage value x Consequence ]
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Floodplain
Aerial photo
Buildings
Identify inundated infrastructure
Risk assessment
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Risk assessment
Risk IndicesConsequences
-Loss of Function -Loss of Equipment-Loss of Structure
Infrastructure Flood Risk Assessment due to Climate Change
Risk Tables
Risk AssessmentOutput
Risk Maps
Monetary Value
Probability
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Risk assessment Probability - The likelihood that a particular flood
event will occur in a given year
100yr RP 100yr RP 250yr RP 250yr RP
CC_LB CC_UB CC_LB CC_UB
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Risk assessment
Risk IndicesConsequences
-Loss of Function -Loss of Equipment-Loss of Structure
Infrastructure Flood Risk Assessment due to Climate Change
Risk Tables
Risk AssessmentOutput
Risk Maps
Monetary Value
Probability
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Flood Consequence Multipliers Loss of Function (IM1) - a fraction of the damage
an infrastructure incurs as a result of losing its function during a flood event [0,1]
Loss of Equipment (IM2) - a fraction of the damage to any equipment related to the infrastructure as a result of a particular flood event [0,1]
Loss of Structure (IM3) - a level of damage to the infrastructure itself which may need repair or replacement as a result of a particular flood event
Risk assessment
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Risk assessment
Deterministic (quantitative) and fuzzy (qualitative) damage measures are combined to describe loss of structure (IM3)
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Risk assessment
Risk IndicesConsequences
-Loss of Function -Loss of Equipment-Loss of Structure
Infrastructure Flood Risk Assessment due to Climate Change
Risk Tables
Risk AssessmentOutput
Risk Maps
Monetary Value
Probability
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Risk assessment
Risk IndicesConsequences
-Loss of Function -Loss of Equipment-Loss of Structure
Infrastructure Flood Risk Assessment due to Climate Change
Risk Tables
Risk AssessmentOutput
Risk Maps
Monetary Value
Probability
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Risk assessment
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Risk assessment
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Risk assessment
100 CC_ LB 100 CC_ UB 250 CC_LB 250 CC_UB
Total risk
573,000,000 984,000,000 917,000,000 1,252,000,000
0.00 0.61 0.51 1.00
5,730,000 9,840,000 3,668,000 5,004,000
0.33 1.00 0.00 0.22
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Risk assessment
250 UTRCA 250 CC_LB 250 CC_UB
797,000,000 917,000,000 1,252,000,000
0.00 0.26 1.00
3,188,000 3,668,000 5,004,000
0.00 0.27 1.00
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Risk assessment
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Risk assessment
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Risk assessment100 CC_ LB 100 CC_ UB 250 CC_LB 250 CC_UB
Roads0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bridges0.50 0.58 0.23 0.27
Buildings0.43 1.00 0.37 0.55
Pollution Control Plants0.57 0.62 0.24 0.30
Critical Facilities0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00
Barriers0.16 0.65 0.23 0.32
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Risk assessment
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Conclusions
Insights into climate change caused flood risk to municipal infrastructure
Multiple recommendations (engineering, operational, policy)
Input into adaptation policy development
Prioritization of adaption action
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