assigned question: to what extent can cme initiation be predicted without detailed understanding of...

Assigned Question: To what extent can CME initiation be predicted without detailed understanding of the CME initiation physics? (i.e., what is the usefulness of empirical and statistical tools?)Answer: A lot can be done.

Prediction

a) Can Do: CME Watch

b) Can’t Do: Exact Time and Energy

Predicting CMEs from MagnetogramsD. A. Falconer (UAH/MSFC/NSSTC), R. L. Moore, G. A. Gary, (NASA/MSFC/NSSTC)

Magnetic Measures for CME Forecasting.

• Total Nonpotentiality (75%) Can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms

• Active Region Size (65%) Can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms

• Size-Normalized Nonpotentiality (65%)

• Complexity (??)

• Rate of Evolution (??)

• Combinations of 2 or more (need to analyze large sample size)Outline of Talk

1. Evidence that total nonpotentiality appears to be the primary determinant of future CME activity.

2. Refinement: Empirical determination of the probability of CME production as a function of total nonpotentiality.

3. Empirical determination of the probability of All Clear or Dangerous Space Weather (“Chance of Rain”.)

Correlation of Total Nonpotentiality and Future CME Productivity

Probability of CME Occurrence as a Function of Total Nonpotentiality

Application: Forecasting Earth-Moon Space CME

All Clear