assistant professor state specialist in ag and food...

2019 Agricultural Policy UpdatesRural Economic Outlook Conference

October 9, 2019

Amy Hagerman

Assistant Professor

State Specialist in Ag and Food Policy

amy.hagerman@okstate.edu

www.agecon.okstate.edu/agpolicy

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Library Hotspot ProgramPhoto credit: OSU Ag Communications Services (ACS)

Many Extension programs around the state involve our departmental faculty and staff.

I’m going to focus on Ag Policy issues, but many of these issues affect other programs.

Outline

• Ag Policy Developments in 2019

• Policy Outlook for 2020• Farm Policy

• Rural Development

• Disaster Recovery

• Market Access

• Livestock Policy

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2018 Sun Up Yearly Issues RoundtablePhoto credit: OSU ACS

Ag Policy Developments in 2019

Federal Programs

• 2018 Farm Bill

• Market Facilitation Program

• 2019 WHIP Plus

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County Farm Bill ProgramPhoto credit: OSU ACS

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Oklahoma• Has benefited from

disaster program funds.

• Did not benefit from MFP as much as other states.

• Mixed results from 2014 Farm Bill.

Setting the Stage for 2019 and 2020

Data source: USDA ERS

2018 Farm Bill

• Evolutionary, not revolutionary

• Implementation rolling along

• Big changes: • ARC/PLC election for 2019-2020, option to change in 2021, 2022,

and 2023

• PLC Yield Update

• ARC irrigated/non-irrigated yields and physical location

• Grassland Conservation Initiative

• Hemp – CSA exemption and crop insurance

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ARC/PLC Election for 2019 and 2020

• Made by the 2019 producer

• Failure to elect will result in • Default to 2014 Farm Bill election • No payments on the 2019 crop year

• You still have to enroll…but you can do that on the same form between October 3, 2019 and March 15, 2020.

• Elections can be (but don’t have to be) changed: • October 1, 2020 –March 15, 2021 for the 2021 crop year• October 1, 2021 –March 15, 2022 for the 2022 crop year• October 1, 2022 –March 15, 2023 for the 2023 crop year

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PLC Yield Update

• Effective for 2020 crop year

• October 3, 2019 to September 30, 2020

• Appears to be a one-time opportunity for the life of this farm bill to retain or update a farm’s PLC yield. • Commodity specific decision

• Voluntary: Did you have better yields 2013-2017 than you did 2008-2012? • Yes? Update if you think you might elect PLC at any point 2020-2023

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2018 Farm Bill

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Jan 19 Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20

AprilFSA Loan

Limits Raised

Dual Purpose Wheat/Grazing Crop Insurance

ARC and PLC election for 2019 and 2020

ARC and PLC Enrollment for 2019

ARC and PLC election andenrollment for 2019 and 2020

June ARC and PLC

enrollment for 2020

PLC yield update

WFRP for Hemp for 2020 Crop

Waiting on details still…1. Hemp rules from USDA-AMS2. Some of the conservation

program changes

Grassland Conservation Initiative Sign up I and II

Trade Highlights

• USMCA• Signed in 2018

• Ratified by Mexico 2019

• Japan • Agreement in Principle

in August 2019

• Mexico• Retaliatory ag tariffs

lifted in May 2019

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African Swine Fever

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ASF Spatial Distribution

Source: OIE

• The viral strain spreading in China has a very high (~100%) death rate

• Virus can be transmitted through meat, milk, blood, saliva, excrement, fomites (e.g. trucks), and ticks

• No known vaccine

12Reported in: CME Group Daily Livestock Report 17(155)

In July, 2019 the decline in the Chinese breeding inventory was 31 million hogs.

That’s almost half of the US total hog inventory (75M)

Market Facilitation Program 2018 and 2019

• 2018 MFP • 2 payments (50/50)• Production based• Commodity specific• National rates

• 2019 MFP• Up to 3 payments • Planted acres based• Aggregated across non-specialty

crops• Livestock and specialty crops

separate• County specific for non-specialty• Includes prevented planting

• December 6 deadline!

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Up to 3 payments

1st: Greater of $15/acre or 50% of total producer payment

2nd and 3rd: Haven’t been announced yet.

Data source: USDA-FSA

2019 WHIP+

• WHIP+ includes tornado and flooding damage in 2018 and 2019 for Oklahoma producers.

• 2018 affected producers will receive 100% of their qualified WHIP+ payment upon approval.

• 2019 affected producers will receive the first 50% of their qualified WHIP+ payment upon approval. • Second half after January 1, 2020

if funds remain.

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Photo Credit: Open source online

2019 WHIP+ and “Top Off” Disaster Payments

• Producers who filed prevented planting crop insurance claims in calendar year 2019 • Additional 10% indemnity

• Plus 5% for those who purchase harvest price option

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For more information visit www.farmers.gov

Select Policy Issues for 2020

• Farm Policy

• Rural Development

• Disaster Recovery

• Market Access

• Livestock Policy

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Photo Credit: Open source online

Farm Policy Issues in 2020

• Spray drift and crop protectant regulation

• Industrial hemp program changes in Oklahoma

• Where do we go with the next farm bill?

• Farm financial stress

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Photo Credit: OSU ACS

• Invasive Species

• 2018 Farm Bill Feral Swine Eradication Pilot Program

• Feral swine pilot program• Kay County

• Joint OK/TX multi-county area long the Red River

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Farm Policy Issues in 2020

Photo Credit: Open source online

Rural Development in 2020

• Rural Healthcare• Medical care

• Mental health

• Processing Capacity• Labor

• Healthy Eating

• Infrastructure

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Disaster Recovery

• Few land-locked states know disasters like Oklahoma!

• Can our current policies be improved going forward? • Conservation

• Crop Insurance

• Land recovery

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Source: NOAA at www.climate.gov

The Role of OSU Extension in Disasters

OSU Extension launched a new initiative for 2019-2020 to enhance our preparedness and response capacity for disasters in the communities we serve.

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Disaster Response Network

Knowledge Management

Exercises

Educator In-Service Training

Market Access Challenges and Opportunities in 2020

• The US produces more than we consume in agricultural goods

• Trade Disputes

• Bilateral Trade Agreements

• MFP 2020?

• Direct market access for Oklahoma agricultural goods

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Photo Credit: OSU ACS

Livestock Regulation and Policies

• Traceability

• Disease response• Carcass disposal

• Secure Food Programs

• Trucking and Electronic Log Book

• Diverse state production regulations

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Photo credit: USDA-ARS

Young and Beginning Producers

• Cost of breaking into agriculture

• Industry leadership development

• Transition planning

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Final thoughts

• Don’t miss out on program opportunities in 2019 and 2020

• Trade dispute resolution will continue into 2020

• 2020 is an election year

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Questions? amy.hagerman@okstate.edu

www.agecon.okstate.edu/agpolicy

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