astronomy brown bag seminar time series analysis of hr 1040 september 16, 2008 david corliss

ASTRONOMY BROWN BAG SEMINARASTRONOMY BROWN BAG SEMINAR

TIME SERIES ANALYSISTIME SERIES ANALYSISOF HR 1040OF HR 1040

SEPTEMBER 16, 2008SEPTEMBER 16, 2008

DAVID CORLISSDAVID CORLISS www.wikisky.org

OUTLINEOUTLINE

HR 1040HR 1040OBSERVATIONAOBSERVATIONA

L L METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY

CHALLENGESCHALLENGESTIME SERIES TIME SERIES STUDYSTUDY

FUTURE RESEARCHFUTURE RESEARCH

ROCKET

SCIENCE

www.wikisky.org

Class: A0 Ia

Distance: 758 ± 250 pc

mv: 4.54, Mv: -7.1 (Variable ± 0.3)

Teff: 9730 ± 300 K

Mass: 19.3 ± 3.3 Mּס

Radius: 97 ± 2.4 Rּס

Terminal Velocity: 218 ± 44 kms-1

Escape Velocity: 233 ± 47 kms-1

Mass Loss: 8.5 ± 3 x 10-8 Mּס yr-1

Features: Irregular Variable, Mass Loss, HVA Events

HR 1040 – Basic Data

www.wikisky.org

HR 1040 – CAM OB1 ASSOCIATION

Straizys, V. & Laugalys, V., 2007, Baltic Astronomy, 16, 167

OBSERVATIONS: METHODOLOGYOBSERVATIONS: METHODOLOGY

RITTER OBSERVATORY

1.06 m, f/8 Ritchey – Chrétien Telescope

High-Resolution Échelle Spectrograph

CCD Camera (Prior to 2007)1200 x 800 pixels 22.5 x 22.5 μm

cooled to 140 K

Resolution ~ 26,000 near Hα

A Digital Spectral Classification Atlas, R. O. Gray, ASU

OBSERVATIONS: SPECTRUMOBSERVATIONS: SPECTRUM

OBSERVATIONS: HOBSERVATIONS: Hαα PROFILE PROFILEP Cygni Mass Loss P Cygni Mass Loss

Hα Region of P Cygni, N. Richardson, M.S. Thesis, 2006

OBSERVATIONS: OBSERVATIONS: HHαα Profile in HR Profile in HR 10401040

Hα Region of HR 1040, N. D. Morrison, 1993

OBSERVATIONS: OBSERVATIONS: High Velocity Absorption in HR High Velocity Absorption in HR

10401040

C. L. Mulliss, 1993

OBSERVATIONS: OBSERVATIONS: High Velocity Absorption in HR High Velocity Absorption in HR

10401040

N. D. Morrison, 1993

CHALLENGES

Telluric Water Vapor

Hα Region of Deneb, N. Richardson, M.S. Thesis, 2006

CHALLENGESSparse and intermittent data

Northern Declination - Observations can be limited

REALLY! I STUDY HR

1040

I STUDYΒ ORIONIS

Complex Hα Profile

Large Distance Contributes to Uncertainties

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS:TIME SERIES ANALYSIS:

PERIODICITY PERIODICITY

Strömgren Photometry of Deneb in Fall 1999, N. Richardson, M.S. Thesis, 2006

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS:TIME SERIES ANALYSIS:

FORECASTINGFORECASTING

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS:TIME SERIES ANALYSIS:CHAOS CHAOS

When change makes all the When change makes all the difference!difference!

U.S. AVERAGE - REGULAR GAS

1.82.02.2

2.42.62.83.03.2

3.43.63.8

Oct 10,2006

Jan 18,2007

Apr 28,2007

Aug 06,2007

Nov 14,2007

Feb 22,2008

Jun 01,2008

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS:TIME SERIES ANALYSIS:

ARIMA MODELSARIMA MODELS

1,1,0 ARIMA 1,1,0 ARIMA MODELMODEL

SMOOTH DATASMOOTH DATA

0,1,1 ARIMA 0,1,1 ARIMA MODELMODEL

CHAOTIC DATACHAOTIC DATA

METRO DETROIT TESTSCORES VS INCOME

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 10 20 30 40 50

INCOME PER CAPITA ($1,000)

M.E

.A.P

. PAS

S / F

AIL

%

U.S. AVERAGE - REGULAR GAS

1.82.02.2

2.42.62.83.03.2

3.43.63.8

Oct 10,2006

Jan 18,2007

Apr 28,2007

Aug 06,2007

Nov 14,2007

Feb 22,2008

Jun 01,2008

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS:TIME SERIES ANALYSIS:

CHANGES IN CHEMISTRYCHANGES IN CHEMISTRY

Hα Region of Deneb, N. Richardson, M.S. Thesis, 2006

Opportunities for further research include:

FUTURE RESEARCH

Longer Time Series

New Objects

New mathematical Techniques

Chemical Composition

High Velocity Absorption events are observed and appear to be associated with variations in luminosity

CONCLUSIONS

HR 1040 is an A0 Ia Supergiant Variable

HVA events may be periodic but this can not be verified with the data presently available – more observations over longer time periods are needed

P Cygni Hα profile indicates the presence of mass loss; Rate of loss is 8.5 ± 3 x 10-8 Mּס yr-1

Standard statistical techniques for Time Series Analysis such as ARIMA Models may be useful in understanding the behavior of HR 1040

Bright Star Catalog, Fifth Edition, 1991 (19950214)

Corliss, D. J., 2008, UT Graduate Research Symposium

Fischer, W. J. & Morrison, N. D., 2001, PASP, 113, 821

Richardson, N., A Five–Year Spectroscopic and Photometric

Campaign on the Supergiant Star Deneb, M.S. Thesis, 2006

Kaufer et al. 1996, A&A, 305, 887

Kunasz, P. B., Morrison, N. D., Spressart, B. 1983, ApJ, 266, 739

Morrison, N. D., & Gordon, K. D., 1996, Bull. AAS, 27, 1312

Przybilla, N. et al., 2004, Proceedings IAU Symposium No. 224, DOI:

10.1017/S174392130400482XRosendhal, J., D., 1973, ApJ, 186, 909Stahl et al. 1995, Jour. Astr. Data 1, No. 3

Straizys, V, & Laugalys, V, 2007, Baltic Astronomy, 16, 167

Talavera, A. & Gomez de Castro, A. I., 1987, AA,181, 300T

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