atmospheric research operationalising coping ranges climate sensitivity, coping ranges and risk...

Atmospheric Research

Operationalising Coping Rangesclimate sensitivity, coping ranges and risk

Roger N. Jones

AIACC Training Workshop on Adaptation and Vulnerability

TWAS, Trieste

June 3-14 2002

Atmospheric Research

Choices

• Roundtable of project needs regards coping ranges, thresholds, climate risk and uncertainty management

• Choosing climate variables/sensitivity relationships (exercise)

• How to construct thresholds

• Structure of climate probabilities (variability and change, short exercise)

• Case studies– hot cows (heat stress and adaptation)– water resources (Monte Carlo uncertainty and

Bayesian analysis– risk as a function of global warming

Atmospheric Research

Sensitivity to what?

Sector Sensitivity to what?

Water Rainfall variability, flood, drought

Agriculture ENSO, flood, drought, cool/hotextremes, storms

Health Hot/wet conditions, temperatureextremes, violent storms, floods, cropand water shortages

Coasts Storm surges, wind/wave climates,pressure extremes, tidal extremes

Biodiversity Fire, flood, drought, storms

Atmospheric Research

Linking climate to impacts

Climate system

Impacted activity

Socio-economicsystem

Current climate

Current adaptations

Future climate

Future adaptations

Atmospheric Research

Cross impacts analysis

Po

ultr

y

Da

iry

Gra

zin

g

Cro

pp

ing

Win

e

Ho

rse

s

Ma

rin

e (

esp

. fis

he

rie

s)

Be

ach

Co

ast

al w

ate

r su

pp

ly

Ha

rbo

ur

Inla

nd

wa

ter

sup

ply

Riv

er

ma

na

ge

me

nt

Dry

lan

d/ir

rig

atio

n s

alin

ity

Fo

rest

& b

iod

ive

rsity

Urb

an

infr

ast

ruct

ure

Air

qu

alit

y

Wa

ste

Ind

ust

ry,

coa

l & p

ow

er

He

alth

Rainfall - average 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 21Rainfall - extreme 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 30Rainfall - variability 2 3 3 2 2 1 3 3 1 1 2 23Drought 2 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 28Temperature - average 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 20Temperature - max 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 1 3 2 1 2 24Temperature - min 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 16CO2 2 2 2 2 1 2 11Cloud 1 1 1 3Pressure 1 1Humidity 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 10Wind 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 16Evaporation 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 10Soil moisture 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 2 20Stream flow 2 1 3 3 2 1 1 3 1 17Flood 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 2 1 3 3 3 2 29Watertable 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 12Water salinity 1 1 1 3 2 2 3 1 2 1 17Irrigation 2 1 2 3 2 2 1 13Sea level 1 3 3 3 2 12Storm surge 3 3 1 7Waves 2 3 1 2 8Lightning 1 1 1 3Hail 2 3 2 7Fire 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 12

8 24 23 29 28 11 18 13 17 14 24 27 20 27 30 9 14 18 16

Workshop Report

(example)

Worked example in MS Excel®

Atmospheric Research

Cross impacts analysis

Atmospheric Research

Uncertainty explosion

Global climate sensitivity

Emission scenarios

Regional changes

Biophysical impacts

Socio-economic impacts

Climate variability

Atmospheric Research

Uncertainty explosion

Global climate sensitivity

Emission scenarios

Regional variability

Biophysical impacts

Socio-economic impacts

Atmospheric Research

Likelihood

Probability can be expressed in two ways:

1. Return period / frequency-based(Climate variability)

2. Single event(Mean climate change, one-off events)

Atmospheric Research

Return period / frequency-based probability

Recurrent or simple eventWhere a continuous variable reaches a critical level, or

threshold.

Eg. Extreme temperature (max & min), Extreme rainfall, heat stress, 1 in 100 year flood

Discrete or complex eventAn event caused by a combination of variables (an

extreme weather event)

Eg. tropical cyclone/hurricane/typhoon, ENSO event

Atmospheric Research

Frequency-based probability distributions

Atmospheric Research

Single-event probability

Singular or unique eventAn event likely to occur once only. Probability refers to

the chance of an event occurring, or to a particular state of that event when it occurs.

Eg. Climate change, collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, hell freezing over

Atmospheric Research

What is the probability of climate change?

1. Will climate change happen?• IPCC (2001) suggests that climate change is occurring with

a confidence of 66% to 90%

2. What form will it take?Uncertainties are due to:

• future rates of greenhouse gas emissions

• sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gases

• regional variations in climate

• decadal-scale variability

• changes to short-term variability

Atmospheric Research

Range of uncertainty

TOTAL RANGE OF UNCERTAINTY

QUANTIFIABLE RANGE OF UNCERTAINTY

M1 M2 M3 M4

UNQUANTIFIABLEUNCERTAINTY

UNQUANTIFIABLEUNCERTAINTY

Atmospheric Research

CO2 emissions and concentrations

Atmospheric Research

Simulated global warming: A2

Atmospheric Research

Global warming

Atmospheric Research

Group exercise - estimating joint probabilities

• Take a gold coin (preferably 1 pound coin)

• Heads represents low end (1.4°C), tails represents high end (5.8°C)

• Flip coin 7 times and record the number of heads and tails

• Which outcome is most likely?

Atmospheric Research

• Give coin to greedy presenter

Risk exercise - conclusion

Atmospheric Research

Probabilistic structure of climate uncertainties

Critical threshold

Critical threshold

Time

Va

riab

le(s

)

Planning horizon

Atmospheric Research

Placing thresholds within scenario uncertainty

global climatesensitivity

emissionscenarios

regionalvariability

range ofpossible impacts

A

B

Atmospheric Research

Impact thresholds

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Year

Glo

ba

l W

arm

ing

(°C

)

Threshold A

Threshold B

Threshold examples

& workshop synthesis

Atmospheric Research

Metrics for measuring costs

• Monetary losses (gains)• Loss of life• Change in quality of life• Species and habitat loss• Distributional equity

Atmospheric Research

System responses

• Resistance (e.g. seawall)

• Resilience (e.g. regrowth, rebuilding after storm or fire)

• Adaptation (adjustments made in response to stress)

• Transformation (old system stops, new one starts)

• Cessation (activity stops altogether)

Atmospheric Research

Hot cows and heat stress

THI between 72 and 78

mild stress

THI between 89 and 98

severe stress DEAD COWS!

THI above 98

moderate stress

THI between 79 and 88

Atmospheric Research

Frequency of exceeding heat index threshold

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

1/10/98 31/10/98 30/11/98 30/12/98 29/01/99 28/02/99 30/03/99

Date

TH

I U

nits

THI72

THI78

Threshold examples

& workshop synthesis

Atmospheric Research

Production effects

THI between 79 and 88

THI between 72 and 78

mild stress no stress

moderate stress mild stress

Powerpoint

Report

Atmospheric Research

Coral bleaching

• Caused by SST above a threshold• Expels xosanthellae algae• Severity related to days above

bleaching threshold• Corals may recover or die

Atmospheric Research

Macquarie River Catchment

Burrendong Dam

Windamere Dam

Major Areas ofAbstraction

Macquarie RContributing Area

Macquarie Marshes

Area ~ 75,000 km2

P = 1000 to <400 mm.

Major dams: Burrendong and Windamere

Water demands: irrigation agriculture; Macquarie Marshes; town supply

Most flow from upper catchment runoff

Most demand in the lower catchment

Atmospheric Research

Ranges of seasonal rainfall change for the MDB

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring -40 -20 0 20 40Rainfall Change (%)

-40 -20 0 20 40Rainfall Change (%)

20302070

Atmospheric Research

P and Ep changes for Macquarie catchment

In change per degree global warming

-16.0

-8.0

0.0

8.0

16.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Cha

nge

fo

r 1

ºC g

lob

al w

arm

ing

(%

)

Evaporation (Ep) Rainfall (P)

Atmospheric Research

Changes to MAF for 9 models in 2030 (%)Based on IPCC 2001

B1 at 1.7°C0.55°C

A1 at 2.5°C0.91°C

A1T at 4.2°C1.27°C

Low

-16

-8

0

Mid

-24

-16

-8

0

High

-30

-20

-10

0

Atmospheric Research

Climate change – flow relationship

flow = a ( atan (Ep / P ) – b

Standard error < 2%

Atmospheric Research

Sampling strategy

• The range of global warming in 2030 was 0.55–1.27°C with a uniform distribution. The range of change in 2070 was 1.16–3.02°C.

• Changes in P were taken from the full range of change for each quarter from the sample of nine climate models.

• Changes in P for each quarter were assumed to be independent of each other

• The difference between samples in any consecutive quarter could not exceed the largest difference observed in the sample of nine climate models.

• Ep was partially dependent on P (dEp = 5.75 – 0.53dP, standard error = 2.00, randomly sampled using a Gaussian distribution)

Atmospheric Research

Changes to Burrendong Dam storage 2030

<60

<70

<80

<90

<95

<100

<50

Cumulative Probability (%)

0

10

20

-10-20-30-40

0 5-5-5

0

5

10

10

15

-10

Rainfall change (%)

Po

ten

tial

eva

po

rati

on

ch

an

ge

(%)

Atmospheric Research

0

10

-10-20-30

0 5-5-5

0

5

10

10

15

-10

Rainfall change (%)

Po

ten

tial

eva

po

rati

on

ch

an

ge

(%)

Changes to bulk allocations for irrigation 2030

<60

<70

<80

<90

<95

<100

<50

Cumulative Probability (%)

Atmospheric Research

0

10

20

-10-20-30-40

0 5-5-5

0

5

10

10

15

-10

Rainfall change (%)

Po

ten

tial

eva

po

rati

on

ch

an

ge

(%)

Changes to Macquarie Marsh inflows 2030

<60

<70

<80

<90

<95

<100

<50

Cumulative Probability (%)

Atmospheric Research

Probabilities of flow changes - impacts view

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-40-30-20-1001020

Change in supply (%)

Cu

mu

lativ

e P

rob

ab

ility

Burrendong Marshes Irrigation

Likeliest outcome

Range of possible outcomes

Atmospheric Research

Critical thresholdsMacquarie River Catchment

Irrigation5 consecutive years below 50% allocation of

water right

Wetlands10 consecutive years below bird breeding

events

Atmospheric Research

Irrigation allocations and wetland inflows- historical climate and 1996 rules

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Year

Flo

w (

Gl x

10)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Irrig

atio

n al

loca

tion

(%)

Allocations Marshes

Atmospheric Research

Threshold exceedance as a function of change in flow (irrigation)

Change in mean average allocationSequences belowthreshold (years) +5% 0 -10% -15% -30% -40% -45%

1615 114 113 112 111 1 010 1 1987 16 1 15 2 2 14 2 2 4 53 1 1 1 2 4 1 12 5 4 6 6 5 6 21 10 13 11 12 7 4 4

Percent of total yearsbelow threshold

22 23 34 38 50 58 64

Atmospheric Research

Threshold exceedance as a function of change in flow (bird breeding)

Change in MAFSequences belowthreshold (years) +5% 0 -10% -15% -30% -40% -50%

16 115 1 1 214 1 1 213 1 2 312 1 2 311 1 110 1 1 1 198 17 1 1 1 16 2 15 1 1 1 1 2 14 3 2 2 3 4 2 33 2 1 3 4 3 3 12 4 7 4 2 2 11 4 3 7 5 3 3

Percent of total yearsbelow threshold 40 45 52 56 63 71 79

Atmospheric Research

Risk analysis resultsMacquarie 2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-40-30-20-1001020

C ha nge in sup ply (% )

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Pro

ba

bili

ty

B urrend ong M arsh es Irr igat ion

DDR Nor mal FD R

Report

Atmospheric Research

Risk analysis resultsMacquarie 2070

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-80-60-40-2002040

Change in supply (%)

Cu

mu

lativ

e P

rob

ab

ility

Burrendong Marshes Irrigation

DDR Normal FDR

Atmospheric Research

Bayesian analysis resultsMacquarie 2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-40-30-20-1001020

Change in supply (%)

Cu

mu

lativ

e P

rob

ab

ility

Standard W&R warming All

Atmospheric Research

Bayesian analysis resultsMacquarie 2070

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-80-60-40-2002040

Change in supply (%)

Cu

mu

lativ

e P

rob

ab

ility

Standard W&R warming All

Atmospheric Research

Characterising risk as a function of global warming

The standard “7 step method” of impact assessment progresses from climate to impacts to adaptation. This infers that we must predict the likeliest climate before we can predict the likeliest impacts.

Can we get around this limitation?

Atmospheric Research

Characterising risk

There is another way.

Impacts = function(Global warming)

Impacts = function(global, local CC & CV )

p(impacts) = no. of scenarios > threshold = risk

Atmospheric Research

Risk exercise - estimating threshold exceedance: sea level rise

• Recover coin from greedy presenter

• Heads represents low end (9 cm), tails represents high end (88cm)

• The group chooses two critical thresholds

• Flip coin 7 times and record the number of heads and tails

• Which outcome is most likely?

Atmospheric Research

0 1 2 3 4 5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Glo

bal w

arm

ing

(°C

)

Frequency (%)

Increasing likelihood of global warming

0 50 100

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Glo

bal w

arm

ing

(°C

)Frequency (%)

Pro

bab

ility

of t

hre

sho

ld

exc

eed

anc

e

Characterising the risk of global warming

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100

Probability (%)

Sea

Lev

el R

ise

(cm

)

25 cm

50 cm

75 cm

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100

Probability (%)

Sea

Lev

el R

ise

(cm

)

25 cm

50 cm

75 cm

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100

Probability (%)

Se

a L

eve

l Ris

e (

cm)

25 cm

50 cm

75 cm

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 5 10

Probability (%)

Se

a L

eve

l Ris

e (

cm)

25 cm

50 cm

75 cm

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 5 10

Probability (%)

Se

a L

eve

l Ris

e (

cm)

25 cm

50 cm

75 cm

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100

Probability (%)

Se

a L

eve

l Ris

e (

cm)

25 cm

50 cm

75 cm

25 cm

50 cm

75 cm

Atmospheric Research

Characterising the risk of global warming

Risks to Many

Risks to Some

I

I Risks to unique and threatened systems

II

II Risks from extreme climate events

Large Increase

Increase

III Distribution of impacts

III

Negative for most regions

Negative for some regions

IV Aggregate impacts

IV

Net Negative

in all metrics

Markets + and -

Most people

worse off

V Risks from large-scale discontinuities

V

Very low

Higher

0 50 100

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Glo

ba

l warm

ing (

°C)

Frequency (%)

Pro

bab

ility

of t

hre

sho

ld

exc

eed

anc

e

Atmospheric Research

Long-term planning Short-term policy response

1. Enhance adaptive capacity so that the current coping range expands, reducing present vulnerability.

2. Develop this capacity in such a way that the longer-term risks to climate change are also reduced.

Atmospheric Research

Basic principles

• Pay greater attention to recent climate experience. Link climate, impacts and outcomes to describe the coping range.

• Address adaptation to climate variability and extremes as part of reducing vulnerability to longer-term climate change.

• Assess risk according to how far climate change, in conjunction with other drivers of change, may drive activities beyond their coping range.

• Focus on present and future vulnerability to ground future adaptation policy development in present-day experience.

• Consider current development policies and proposed future activities and investments, especially those that may increase vulnerability.

Atmospheric Research

Foresighting your project

• Visualise how you will present the results (graph, text, table, animation)

• Rehearse how you will communicate the uncertainties

• Anticipate questions upon presentation or review

• How will you engage different stakeholders?