australia’s future population – where are we going? patrick corr director, demography program...

Australia’s future population – where are we going?

Patrick CorrDirector, Demography ProgramAustralian Bureau of Statistics

3 March 2011

What are population projections?

• Projections are not forecasts or predictionsSimply illustrations of the growth and change in

population IF: certain assumptions about the levels of fertility,

mortality, internal and overseas migration were to prevail over the projection period.

The role of the ABS• National statistical agency

Impartial and objective• History of ABS projections:

ABS has been producing projections since Sept 1950• Census data is used in the development of ABS

population projections• ABS is not legally required to produce population

projections, however, ABS is in the best position to do so.

Assumptions: 2008 releaseLife expectancy at birth (years)

Total fertility rate (babies per woman)

Net overseas migration(persons)

Males Females

Series A 2.0 220,000 93.9 96.1

Series B 1.8 180,000 85.0 88.0

Series C 1.6 140,000 85.0 88.0

Projection outcomes

Series B: 31.4

Series A: 35.0

Series C: 28.7

Population distribution• High population growth in the capital cities

Perth and Brisbane are projected to grow at the highest rate (average annual growth of 1.6%) over the period to 2056, closely followed by Darwin (1.5%).

• According to Series A, Melbourne will overtake Sydney as the most populous city in Australia in 2039.

An ageing population2010 2030

Median age: 37.5 years Median age: 41.1 years

Series B

An ageing population2010 2030

Median age: 37.5 years Median age: 41.1 years

Series B

An ageing population2010 2030

Median age: 37.5 years Median age: 41.1 years

Series B

Projected working age population (persons aged 15 to 64 years), 2010 - 2040

Pe

rso

ns

(mill

ion

s)

30 June

Growth rates, working age population (persons aged 15 to 64 years), 2010 - 2040

Gro

wth

ra

te (

%)

Year ending 30 June

Projected population, persons aged 15 and 65 years, Series B, 2010 - 2040

Pe

rso

ns

30 June

Key projection series• Medium- to long-term projections

ABS: Population Projections, Australia, 2006-2101 (cat. no. 3222.0)

Treasury: Intergenerational Report (IGR) 2010• Short-term projections

ABS: Treasury Budget projections (found in Budget Paper 3)

ABS: AEC Enrolment projections

Key users of Projections• State and territory planning agencies

- Regional projections• Treasury

- Intergenerational Report- Budget

• Health planning and reporting• Sustainable Population Strategy

Long-term projections

ABS (Series B) IGR 2010Total fertility rate 1.8 babies per woman 1.9 babies per woman

(from 2013)

Life expectancy - males

85.0 years 87.7 years

Life expectancy - females

88.0 years 90.5 years

NOM 180,000 180,000 (from 2012)

Population 33.9 million 35.9 million

Average Annual Growth rate (2010-50)

1.4% 1.2%

Population at 2050

Short-term projections

ABS (Series B) Budget paper 3Total fertility rate 1.8 babies per woman 1.9 babies per woman

Life expectancy - males

85.0 years 85.0 years

Life expectancy - females

88.0 years 88.0 years

NOM 180,000 222,000 (180,000 by 2013)

Population 23.0 million 23.6 million

Average Annual Growth rate (2010-13)

1.5% 1.9%

Population at 2013

Limitations of population projections

• Projections can not predict the future; assumptions are often based on past trends.

• No method of calculating projections can account for the recent dramatic changes in NOM.

• Dealing with uncertainty.

Using projections in a informed way• Obtain regular updates• Understand the assumptions used to create the

projections• Understand what you are using the data for• Use recent estimated resident population (ERP) data

to see where the population is tracking and make comparisons to the projected populationCurrently, ERP is higher than Series A (2008 series)

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