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Beyond Convergence

Hudson InstituteWednesday, 15th November

Presenter
Presentation Notes
ever greater proportion of global product is global trade; world trade in goods/services 2013, US$20 trillion; 20% of gross global product   20 million intermodal container units in the world; as many as 15 million units enter U.S. seaports annually (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), of which only 2% are physically inspected by Customs
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Money is on the move across borders on a daily basis through various forms of electronic transfers; from less than $3 billion/day in 1980 to $33 billion/day in 2007 – but down to $14 billion/day in 2012
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people are on the move over 1 billion annual arrivals annually, according to the latest statistics from the U.N.

7b cell phones worldwide

211 terabits/second in 2014

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2 billion personal computers and nearly 7 billion mobile telephones 211 terabits/second in 2014 = 1.3 libraries of congress/second; 45 x 2005

Stedman’s Spoiler Typology (1997)

spoilers

absolute

limited

greedy

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Stedman; Spoiler problems in peace processes 1997

Network Connectivity

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2013-14 Combating Terrorism Center study shows a single global network. 40 smugglers; 1 degree of separation network analysis yields 754 (Thomson reuters)
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2nd degree network analysis leads to 2739 individuals or nodes
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98% of which in a single common network and engaged in the full range of terrorist and criminal activities

The international community:

193 sovereign states

Countries reported “Low” on Human Development Index, 2016

The international community:

148 sovereign states

“Low” HDICountries reported “Not Free” on Freedom House Index, 2017

The international community:

117 sovereign states

“Low” HDI“Not Free” on Freedom HouseCountries “Warning” or “Failing” on Fragile States Index, 2017

The international community:

80 sovereign states

“Low” HDI“Not Free” on Freedom House“Warning” or “Failing” on FSICountries considered “Corrupt” (score < 40) on Transparency International Index, 2016

The international community:

57 sovereign states

EFFECTIVELEGITIMATE

SECURE

INSIGHTS FORDEFENSE INSTITUTION BUILDING

ALEXANDRA KERR & MICHAEL MIKLAUCIC,EDITORS

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