beyond the profet juergen schulze met norway. who's met norway?

Beyond the PROFETJuergen SchulzeMET Norway

Who's MET Norway?

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PROFET ?

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PROFF Field Editor

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Prior to PROFET

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Text forecast

· 50000 Pages of Text forecasts a year

· 5-20 people 24/7

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TV forecast

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Edited Meteogram

· Offshore forecast· Subjective Point

forecasts

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Auto Meteogram

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ICAO Products

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And then came yr.no

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yr.no

· Launched in September 2007

· Free data policy· 5th biggest weather

website on the planet· Interpolation on demand· 9 mio places registered· Top=6.9 mio unique

users/week· Point forecasts obsolete

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YR Heatmap

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PROFET … the intentions

Bringing the forecaster into the production chain

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More intentions

Creating products from a single source

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Even more intentions

Forecast consistency by using a single source

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How PROFET works

· Choosing the “correct” model

· Fixing systematic errors in the model fields

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Usage – Intended

· Intention to point out dangerous errors

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Usage – Intended … and real

· Intention to point out dangerous errors

· Used to adapt the model output to fit the forecasters opinion

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Usage - frequency

PARAMETERPARAMETER SUMMERSUMMER WINTERWINTER

1h Precipitation 1.9 % 2.8 %

Wind 0.9 % 2.4 %

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VERIFICATION

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Equitable Threat Score (ETS)

YESYES NONO

YESYES a b

NONO c d

· Threat Score: TS= a / ( a + b + c )· Hits expected by chance: E = (a+b) ( a+c ) / n· ETS = ( a – E ) / ( a + b +c – E )

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Verification: Precipitation24h precipitation / summer1h precipitation / summer

APPROVED DATASET / DEFAULT MODEL

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Verification Systematic error

Precipitation +30h forecastBIAS [mm / 24h ]

SUMMER WINTER

ALL CASESDEFAULT MODEL 0.8 0.5

APPROVED DATASET 0.7 0.7

EDITED CASES

DEFAULT MODEL 4.2 0.8APPROVED DATASET 3.7 1.7

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Verification: comments

· Edited forecasts are more pessimistic than the model· Forecasters are able to identify situations where the model

has considerable errors, but editing the fields is not the optimal way to distribute this knowledge

· Situation has changed since the beginning. The default model has been improved by postprocessing the dataset

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And the production chain?

More and more statistical and parametrisation fixes

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Temperature?

· High resolution height model (50m horizontal)

· Inhomogeneous· Deep valleys

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Temperature?

· High resolution height model (50m horizontal)

· Inhomogeneous· Deep valleys· Editing forbidden

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Precipitation

· Use of prob forecasts by median

· Editing is not WYSIWYG· Post processing is time cost

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Wind

· Statistical corrections for mountains and coastlines

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Chosing the model ?

Just two times a day, night shift has not the capacity

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Single point of production?

· Auto text forecasts – only at high sea.· Norway is quite Inhomogeneous – auto text did not succeed

over land

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Consistency then?

· Still TV forecast produced by table· ICAO Products made by hand· Text forecasts still 50K pages

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Consistency - yr.no/kart vs yr.no

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Consistency - yr.no/kart vs yr.no

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Consistency - yr.no/kart vs yr.no

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Why stopping right now?

· New Supercomputer – New Model· AROME 2.5 km High res model over Norway· Updates 6 or 8 times a day· High res postprocess chains – time intensive with editing

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The final reason

· Moving PROFET to AROME would cost a recognizable amount of infrastructural change – due to the implementation of NetCDF as the new grid format

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What next?

The Forecaster is off the production chain again

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Meteorologen live

· Making direct comments on the situation· Model/run/grid independent· Issuing geolocalised warnings, alerts, etc directly into the

final product· Maximum latency of 10 minutes

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Implementation

· Phase 0: Soon· Using Common Technology for communication

(Twitter/Blog)· Phase 1: September 2013

· Adapting existing infrastructure to a set of the new requirements

· Phase 2: Not yet set· Complete new infrastructure with a postGIS database

engine for the geolocalisation