bosnia and herzegovina: before and during the crisis dr fikret Čaušević...
Post on 27-Mar-2015
224 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: BEFORE AND DURING THE CRISIS
Dr Fikret Čauševićfikret.causevic@efsa.unsa.ba
Regional Cooperation CouncilSarajevo, Holiday Inn Hotel, 24 February 2010
FINANCIAL SECTOR: COMMERCIAL BANKING IN BiH AS PART OF EU MARKET
BiH is already integrated into the European banking system
Most international standards relating to banking regulations are already in place in BiH
Except of integration of the two entities’ banking agencies into a single or the state-level agency
Foreign banks have contributed to the development of commercial banking in BiH – both in terms of technological improvement and by decreasing interest rates in the period 2000-2008
The year 2009 has seen an increase in average interest rates on loans to enterprises and citizens
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND ASSETS OF THE BANKING SECTOR (millions of KM)
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009
Banking Assets BiH GDP BiH
BANKING SECTOR ASSETS AND CREDITS TO ENTERPRISES AND TO HOUSEHOLDS IN
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
YearAssets of banks Credit to
enterprisesCredit to households GDP
(mill.KM)
Millons KM
In % GDP
MillionsKM
In %GDP
MillionsKM
In %GDP
2000 4,265 44.444.4 2,548 26.526.5 384 4.04.0 9,611
2002 6,345 54.554.5 2,697 23.223.2 1,456 12.512.5 11,651
2003 7,688 53.053.0 3,026 20.920.9 1,966 13.613.6 14,505
2004 9,408 59.659.6 3,178 20.120.1 2,627 16.616.6 15,786
2005 11,875 70.270.2 3,056 18.118.1 3,453 20.420.4 16,927
2006 14,700 76.976.9 4,760 24.924.9 4,480 23.423.4 19,121
2007 19,173 88.688.6 5,839 27.027.0 5,754 26.626.6 21,641
2008 20,802 84.284.2 7,322 29.629.6 6,524 26.426.4 24,720
MERCHANDISE EXPORT, IMPORT, TRADE BALANCE AND TRADE VOLUME OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 2000-2009
- millions of KM
-15.000
-10.000
-5.000
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
2000 20001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Export Import Trade deficit Trade volume
MERCHANDISE TRADE OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
- milions KM
YEAR Import Export Trade Balance Trade Volume
2000 2,265 6,583 - 4,318 8,848
2002 2,089 8,048 - 5,958 10,137
2004 2,819 9,306 - 6,487 12,125
2006 5,164 11,389 - 6,225 16,553
2007 5,937 13,899 - 7,962 19,836
2008 6,888 16,314 - 9,426 23,202
2009 5,530 12,348 - 6,818 17,878
CHANGES IN CREDIT ACTIVITY: THE BANKING SECTOR OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
(millions of KM)
5.800
6.000
6.200
6.400
6.600
6.800
7.000
7.200
7.400
7.600
October 08 March 09 June 09 Sept 09 Dec 09
Credit-Enterprises Credit-Households
CHANGES IN CREDIT ACTIVITY AND TRADE DEFICIT OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA (millions of KM)
Period
Change in credit to enterprises
Change in credit to households
Change in trade balance
2004/2003 + 144 + 662 + 491
2005/2004 + 774 + 838 + 908
2006/2005 + 804 + 942 - 1.170
2007/2006 + 1,079 + 1,274 + 1,737
2008/2007 + 1,591 + 1,102 + 1,464
2009/2008 - 85 - 446 - 2,610
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
CHG-CrE CHG-CrH CHG-TD
TRADE DEFICIT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AND COMPETITIVENESS
OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Year
Trade deficit
(% GDP)
Current
Acc.def.
(% GDP)
2002 - 54.0 - 19.3
2004 - 45.6 - 16.3
2006 - 34.8 - 7.9
2008 - 38.1 - 14.9
2009 - 29.0 - 10.5
Year
Ranking in GCR
(BiH / number of countries included)
2004 81 / 104
2006 82 / 122
2007 106 / 131
2008 107 / 134
2009 109 / 133
EXTERNAL DEBTS OF SEE COUNTRIES (EBRD: Transition Report 2008)
CountryExternal debt / GDP
(in % of GDP)External debt / Exports of goods and
services
2002 2004 2007 2002 2004 2007
Albania 26.6 26.0 26.4 128.9 118.8 94.4
Bosnia and Herzegovina 58.9 50.9 48.5 253.5 173.1 116.6
Bulgaria 72.5 70.1 104.5 149.7 123.8 166.4
Croatia 61.9 80.0 88.6 136.1 161.0 181.1
FYR Macedonia 43.6 38.7 36.3 120.0 97.7 70.1
Romania 37.0 39.3 42.2 104.8 109.5 138.1
Serbia 70.6 57.8 64.0 379.3 253.7 222.4
Slovenia 55.6 62.3 108.6 85.2 97.6 143.8
EXTERNAL DEBT OF CEE COUNTRIES AND BiH (EBRD: Transition Report 2008)
Country External debt / GDP(in % of GDP)
External debt / Exports of goods and services
2002 2004 2007 2002 2004 2007
Bosnia and Herzegovina 58.9 50.9 48.5 253.5 173.1 116.6
Estonia 64.4 83.5 120.8 90.3 114.6 163.2
Hungary 55.4 69.4 98.9 87.7 107.3 123.9
Latvia 75.6 97.7 142.4 186.2 224.1 327.4
Lithuania 43.8 46.5 78.5 82.5 89.1 141.6
Poland 42.8 51.3 55.2 149.5 136.2 133.1
Russia 49.2 38.6 36.0 140.5 110.6 118.5
Slovak Republic 53.9 56.3 59.1 76.8 75.8 68.7
Slovenia 55.6 62.3 108.6 85.2 97.6 143.8
WEALTH COEFFICIENTS OF SOUTH-EAST EUROPE COUNTRIES
C O U N T R Y2007 2000 1990 2000/
1990(in %)
2007/2000(in %)
2007/1990(in %)
Albania 0.417 0.235 0.159 + 47.8 + 77.5 + 162.3
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.491 0.279 0.643 - 56.6 + 76.0 - 23.6
Bulgaria 0.635 0.301 0.556 - 45.8 + 111.0 + 14.2
Croatia 1.403 0.784 0.912 - 14.0 + 79.0 + 53.8
FYR Macedonia 0.467 0.333 0.553 - 39.8 + 40.2 - 15.6
Romania 0.938 0.320 0.406 - 21.2 + 193.1 + 131.0
Serbia 0.688 0.236 --- --- + 191.5 ---
Slovenia 2.800 1.879 1.526 + 23.1 + 49.0 + 83.5
THE MOST PROBLEMATIC FACTORS - DOING BUSINESS IN BiH ACCORDING TO THE WORLD COMPETITIVENESS
REPORT 2009-2010
Inefficient government bureaucracy Policy instability Corruption Government instability Tax rates Crime and theft Tax regulations Access to financing Inadequate supply of infrastructure
EASE OF DOING BUSINESS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
DB 2010 DB 2009 DB 2008
Doing Business 116 119 105
Starting a Business 160 162 150
Construction Permits 136 137 150
Emloying Workers 111 109 114
Registering Property 139 149 144
Getting Credit 61 59 13
Protecting Investors 93 88 83
Paying Taxes 128 155 142
Trading Across Borders 63 58 53
Enforcing Contracts 124 124 126
EASE OF DOING BUSINESS IN CROATIA, SEBIA AND FYR MACEDONIA: DOING BUSINES 2010 – IBRD, WB
CROATIA SERBIA MACEDONIA
Doing Business 103 88 32
Starting a Business 101 73 6
Construction Permits 144 174 137
Emloying Workers 163 94 58
Registering Property 109 105 63
Getting Credit 61 4 43
Protecting Investors 132 73 20
Paying Taxes 39 137 26
Trading Across Borders 96 69 62
Enforcing Contracts 45 97 64
top related