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Risk and Vulnerability Analysis – Applied in Crisis Management
Kurt PetersenProfessorLUCRAM
Contents
Situation in SwedenInternational crisesRisk and Vulnerability AnalysisFRIVA – Research ProgrammeFindings
Kurt Petersen
Lund University – Professor, Risk Analysis and ManagementPresident of LUCRAM, Lund University Centre for Risk Analysisand Management
Lund University
Founded 1666
41 000 students
2 500 ph.d. students
5 500 employees
581 professors
8 faculties
5 160 MSEK turnover
Lund Technical University13 Civ ing programs
7000 students
19 Institutions
75 thematic areas
Master programmes• Copenhagen University – Master of Disaster Management (2008)• Civil Aviation School, LTH – Making Progess in Systems Safety
Master in societal aspects of crisis management
Fire Safety Engineering (since 1986)
Civil engineer in Risk Management (since 2001)
External courses (Räddningsverket, Luftfartsstyrelsen, Kammarkollegiet)
Ph.D. courses (examples):– Complex Adaptive Systems och Crisis Management– Accident management and crisis response
Education in Risk Management
LUCRAM
Lund University Centre for Risk Analysis and Management Network at Lunds UniversityCoordination of research on risk managementContact point for external activities
Situation in Sweden
New legislation on extreme eventsSwedish Emergency Management AgencyImplementation national, regional and localResearch
New legislation
Risk and Vulnerability analysisCapability/Ability AssessmentTraining and Exercises
International disasters
Terrorism, New York, London, MadridFlooding, Central Europe, Asia, SwedenEarthquakes, South Europe, AsiaForest fires, South EuropeWind storms, Europe, Sweden
International disasters
Accidents at sea, Estonia, Herold of Free EnterpriseAccidents at land, Bhopal, SevesoDiseases, pandemi, bird flu, SARS, MCD
Risk Approach
Risk = f (E, F, Q)E = events, hazardsF = frequency, likelihoodQ = consequence
Vulnerability Approach
Risk given a specific event, situation or conditionsCapability/Ability
FRIVA – a research programme
Risk and Vulnerability AnalysisMarch 2004 until March 2010Financed by the Swedish Emergency Management AgencyResearch Capacity Establishment8 doctoral projects
FRIVA Subprojects
DP2: Risk and vulnerability assessmentmethods for analyses of criticalinterdependent infrastructuresDP3: Crisis management: preparedness, response and recoveryDP4: Crisis management and social vulnerabilityDP5: Proactive crisis management and safety culture
FRIVA Subprojects
DP6: Regional vulnerability analysisDP7: Risk and vulnerability analysis of large scale infrastructures – electricpower and drinking water supplyDP8: Risk and vulnerability analysis of large scale infrastructures – tele and IT systemsDP9: Statistical analysis and simulation of extreme events
FRIVA II
Risk and vulnerability analysis of complex socio-technical systemsCrisis management from the perspective of the user or the victimCritical infrastructures in crises
Some Findings
MethodsPractical exercises at communitylevelProcess rather than plan
Findings
Scenario based methodsSystem modelling based analyticalmethods
Findings
Broad scopeBroad participationImplementation processes
Emergency Response System
Risk and vulnerabilityERS plan Function for dissemination of ERS within organisationFunction for dissemination of ERS between organisationsFunction for continuous learning
Emergency Response Systems
Utilise emergent behaviourUtilise adaptability
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