branislav reťkovský - marcogazmarcogaz.org/downloads/pimf2014/3a.2 - branislav_retkovsky.pdf ·...

Risk model in eustream, a.s. and its real behaviour (2009-2013)

Branislav Reťkovský

Instead of agenda

(Dave Adler, NiSource Gas and John Beets, Willbros Engineering, Pipeline & Gas Journal, March 2012, Vol. 239 No. 3)

For many years the management of risk on NGT&S pipelines was driven by resource allocation and boiled down to who could do the best job of describing why their project was most important to the company’s future.

ProbabilityXConsequences(ASME B31.8s, K. Muhlbauer, eustream know-how)

Transit system of eustream

What does it mean „Risk“

ProbabilityXConsequences(ASME B31.8s, K. Muhlbauer, eustream know-how)

Integrity management – risk management

Risk factors identifying (P,C),Setting of factors value,Integrated database,Dynamic segmentation

Corrosion (ILI, cathodic protection..), Construction (coating, pipe material...), 3th parts, Geo – factors (soil type, landslide potential...)

Risk factors identifying

People,Economy,Environment...

Risk factors identifying

Risk model

34 probability factors,13 consequences factors,4 time related factors...

Riziko (R)R = P x D

Erf DNV (t)

3th parts

Cathodic protection

Dynamic segmentation

Risk management

Drill down analyses,Critical factors Identification,Mitigation...

Risk management is not playing with numbers

Integrity management – risk management

1026,7 km1291,6 km

11,01 km

Analyses of the 3th risk level

61% of all 3th level risks segments (8213 m)21 km long section, Dificcult natural conditions

Analyses of the 3th risk level

Why is the 4th line bad?

ILI is only one of the risk factors,The same environment (conditions),The same impacts...

Why is the 4th line bad?

ILI is only one of the risk factors,The same environment (conditions),The same impacts...

+ 9507 m

-8870 m-637 m

The 1st line

+ 1370m

-1312 m+41,5m

The 2nd line

+ 4480 m

-4912 m+432 m

3th line

- 32719m

+30781m+1938m

The 4th line

...even ILI has its „best before“...

Why is the 4th line bad?

-6326m

+6166m

+98m

-9017m

+8716m

+285m

-8837 m

+8228m

+576 m

-10613m

+10596m

+17m

New ILI (L1,L2,L3)New data , new corrosion findingsTime related factors

Why all lines goes bad?

+20 122m

-19 925m

-1007m

+13178m

-12581m

-1427m

+5436 m

-4843m

-1381m

+405m

-903m

-1403m

-37%

Mitigation focused on critical sectorMitigation covers all area (new CP station)Feedback (external inspection of all section)

Why goes all lines nice?

- 3187 m

+ 3156 m

-7 m

- 12284 m

+ 11856 m

+ 413 m

- 4662 m

+ 4384 m

+ 279 m

-1047 m

+ 882 m

+ 163 m

Time is ticking:„Virtual“ growing of corrosionInspections are getting old

ILI is like the Holy BibleRepairing of corrosion based on It is localPlaning is not enoug corelated wit risk model

Time to review the model?

What happens? (Again)

Conclusions

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

220000

240000

260000

1

2

3

4

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

1

2

3

4

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1

2

3

4

Risk model works and reflects activitys in terrainIt is neccesary to involve risk model more into process of maintenance, The way how to significant reduce risky segments is applying areal mitigations (e.g. fresh inspection)

Conclusions

Thank you for your attention