broadband for rural and developing regions: …...international bandwidth: asia-pacific and africa...

Broadband for Rural and Developing

Regions:Learning from Projects and Evaluating Impacts

Heather E. Hudson

Fulbright North American Policy ChairCarleton University

Ottawa, Canada and

Incoming Director, Institute for Social and Economic Research

University of Alaska Anchorage

Broadband Impacts:Monitoring and Evaluation

• Project implementation

– The devils (devil’s) in the details

• Sustainability

– After the installation

• Short term impacts

– Jobs, jobs, and (votes)??

• Longer term impacts:

– What difference did it make?

Evaluation Activities

• Monitor implementation

• Collect data on users and usage

• Identify user social and economic benefits

– quantify where possible

• Provide guidance for future funding

What makes ICTs Accessible?

Criteria for access to ICT facilities and services:

– Availability

• Coverage (wireless)

• Houses passed (wireline)

– Affordability

• Price for commonly used services

• Price as percentage of disposable income

– Bandwidth

• Broadband for Internet access and multimedia services

– Quality

• Quality of Service (QOS) important for broadband

• Reliability, latency, jitter

Monitoring Implementation

• Installation:– Was infrastructure installed:

• According to specifications• On time

• Activation:– Were facilities/services made

available• As specified• On time

– Were other usage requirements met:

• Power supply• Prepaid cards, vouchers, cash

payment options• Training, if necessary• Applications or software, if needed

Project Implementation:Infrastructure Design and Cost

• Was the network designed to accomplish development goals?– Mesh design for local networking – National fiber backbones with rural connections

• What was the total project cost?– Backbone? Middle mile? Last/first mile equipmentPLUS:– Power supplies– Peripheral equipment– Permits, fees, taxes

Project Implementation:Were the Specifications Right?

• Enough capacity?E.g. rural/remote Canada:

• 22% of rural/remote households without broadband access

• Satellite an option, population but satellite capacity sufficient for only 1% of households

• The right design?E.g. Tanzania: domestic fiber backbone

• To reach all District Centres (like county seats)

• But 130 Districts, and only 37 drops (termination points) in plan

• Possible impact on cost to connect DCs

• Impact on optical link budgets or capacity– Degrading signal or requiring use of dedicated fiber strands

Technology Selection: Leapfrogging and Obsolescence

• Will the technology soon be obsolete?

• Will alternatives be cheaper or more attractive?

• Is technology upgradable to provide:– more bandwidth? – more connections? – more features?

And what about Quality of Service (QOS) ?

Reliability?•annual down time•outages (due to storms,

power failures, etc.•mean time to repair•latency, jitter, etc.

What about Sustainability?

• Supply side:

– Sustainable business model

– Usage

– Technology:

• reliability, Potential obsolescence

• Scalability, potential to upgrade

• Demand side:

– Number of users, subscribers

• Growth as projected

• Demographic and economic trends

– Pricing

– Useful features and applications

Evaluating Broadband Funding Programs• Problems of competitive bids and reverse auctions:

– Not enough bidders

– Collusion

– Benchmarks set too high

– Lack of sufficient operator expertise to estimate realistic costs

• Who really pays?– USFs: “ a way of requiring that the industry at large finance

the achievement of UAS, while only operators interested in expanding to rural areas will tender for the subsidies.”

– But are the users really paying – e.g. pass throughs like US?

• One-time subsidies vs. Sustainability– “once only incentive designed to be results-oriented …”

– But do some services need ongoing subsidy?• E.g. E-rate and High Cost Fund in the US

• Expectations for instant results

Broadband Access: Models and Criteria

Access models• Household access• Personal access

– using wireless phones, PDAs, laptops or netbooks

• Institutional access:– SMEs, NGOs, government agencies, etc.

• Public access – Single national model (e.g. post offices);– Variety of public access models (telecenters, cybercafés,

other shops, post offices NGOs, etc.);– Schools and libraries;– Other institutions, such as government offices, community

centers, banks

• Geographic access– Within specified distance of access point

• Other criteria– Population, adminstrative function, etc.

Broadband Pricing and Affordability:

Asia-Pacific and Africa

87.2

56.2

36.1

94.27

368.6

212.1

44.9

2.2 5.81

452

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Asia-Pac

Low Income

Asia-Pac

Lower

Middle

Asia-Pac

Upper-

Middle and

High Income

North Africa Sub Saharan

Africa

US

D p

er

mo

nth

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Perc

en

t o

f G

NI

per

cap

ita

PCs and other devices are getting cheaper, but connectivity is still unaffordable in much of the developing world

International Bandwidth: Asia-Pacific and Africa

40.9

155.6

2351.6

208.4

9.4

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1

Bits p

er

Inhabitant

Asia-Pac Low Income

Asia-Pac Lower Middle

Asia-Pac Upper-Middle

and High Income

North Africa

Sub Saharan Africa

International bandwidth remains a constraint

Poor countries in Africa and Asia have very little international bandwidth

From Broadband to Development

• The “so what?” question --

or

• What difference did it make?

Short term stimulus effect: Creating jobs…

From Broadband to Development:

The Chain of Inference

• Availability ���� Utilization

• Utilization ���� Impact

– Efficiency

– Effectiveness

– Equity

– Reach ??

• Metrics: How far down the chain can we get?

– In the short term?

– With a longer research horizon?

Connectivity: Necessary but Not Sufficient

• Access:– Availability

– Affordability plus

• Context:– Social, economic, cultural

• Need other infrastructure: transportation, power supply, etc.

• Other services: local banking, funds transfer

• Content:– Local languages

– Relevance to rural conditions

• Capacity:– Skills to use and manage information facilities

– “Infomediaries”: the information broker• Librarian, extension agent, mentor

ICTs: Creating New Business Opportunities

• Reach– New markets, new audiences

• Market Information– Getting price information:

• Domestic and foreign markets

– Getting competitive bids• new sources of supplies

• Outsourcing/Insourcing– Doing work for distant clients– Call centers, data entry,

translation

• BUT beyond connectivity:– What skills do entrepreneurs

need?– Knowledge of foreign

markets– Access to capital– Competitive suppliers or

buyers, etc.

Using the Internet to reach global markets:

Beyond talent – and a website:

need forFinancial services

Online banking, investingMerchant payment systemsRemittance transfers

Microfinance:Connecting lenders with small

businesses and entrepreneurs

Health Applications

• Not always sustainable– Consultations

• Availability of physicians

• Ability to charge for remote consults

• Liability, licensing issues

– Medical records

• Require commitment to implement

• Require integrated health care system or providers’ networks

• Privacy and security issues

Distance Education:

Not always sustainable

Issues:• Threatened teachers• Accreditation• Perceived quality• Sharing tuition revenues• Intellectual property

Sustainable Model: Remote NW Ontario

Cree and Ojibway villages:

High school completionfor students in native communities using Broadband

Sustainable model: contracts to provide connectivity and technical support for education, health care, other public services

Beyond Broadband:Toward a Digital Economy?

• Public service sector benefits– Health, education, e-government services

• Support for SMEs and NGOs– Engines of development and diversification?

• But what about major sectors in national economies?– Resource extraction: mining, petroleum, etc.– Agriculture and fisheries– Manufacturing– Services

Key macro-level research questions:

• How does increased access to broadband affect the key economic sectors in national economies?– Productivity, efficiency, new markets or products/services, etc.

• Does increased access to broadband facilitate diversification ofnational economies?

For more information:heatherehudson@gmail.com

Thank you