bryan mark peru night 1

15 February 2012

Recent Peruvian Glacier Changes: An update & why it matters to humans

Bryan Mark

• Jeff McKenzie (McGill)

• Jeffrey Bury (UCSC)

• Ken Young (UT Austin)

• Mark Carey (U Oregon)

• Donald Rodbell (Union College)

• Zicheng Yu (Lehigh)

• Christopher Hopkinson (NSCC)

• Lonnie & Ellen Thompson (BPRC)

• D. Slayback, K. Yager (NASA)

• Nathan Stansell (Res Assoc)

• Sarah Fortner (Postdoc)

• Kyung In Huh (PhD)

• Scott Reinemann (PhD)

• Jeff LaFrenierre (PhD)

• Alfonso Fernandez (PhD)

• Oliver Wigmore (PhD)

• Michel Baraer (PhD)

• Adam French (PhD)

• Alex Eddy (MA)

• Nate Patrick (MS)

http://bprc.osu.edu/glacierchange

• Laura Lautz (Syracuse)

• Ryan Gordon

• Patrick Burns

• Joel Harper (MT)

• Toby Meierbachtol

• Adam Clark

• Ing. Ricardo J. Gomez

• Ing. Cesar Portocarrero

• Unidad de Glaciologia y Recursos Hidricos

Science is relational

Alcides Ames

(1942-2007)

http://bprc.osu.edu/glacierchange

Outline

• Perspective on glacier recession

• Update on glacier volume loss and river flow

• Human vulnerability to glacier recession and

climate change in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

• Water resources and coupled systems

Glacier thinning since 1970 (m/yr)

Adapted from Dyurgerov and Meier (2005)

Data from World Glacier Monitoring Service (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/)

Tropical

Andean

Glaciers71% in Peru

22% in Bolivia

4% in Ecuador

3% in Colombia

~1% Venezuela

Source-J. Bury

UC-Santa Cruz

NASA Worldwind

•0.10ûC/decade

•overall +0.68°C since 1939

•last 20 years: only 2 (1996 and

1999) below the long term

(1961-90) average

Vuille et al. 2008, Ear Sci Rev 89, 79-96.

Observed Andean temperature change

Cordillera Blanca

Since 1970, ~25% of

glaciers have melted

~20 million people (70%

of country) depend on

glaciers

~267,000 people live in

Callejon de Huaylas

Source-J. Bury

UC-Santa Cruz

NASA Worldwind

Most glacierized tropical range

Highly seasonal precipitation,

Rapid glacier loss & rising (competing?) water

demand

Cordillera Blanca

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Tem

pera

ture

(C

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Pre

cip

itati

on

(m

m)

Huascarán

Huaraz

La Balsa

Tropical glaciers: climate & hydrological response

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

Dis

charg

e (

m3/s

)

La Balsa 1954-2008 daily discharge

Dry seasonWet season

Credit: M. Baraer

annual discharge, dry season discharge & flow variability

Methods: “high” and “low” tech observations

1. How much ice loss?

2. What impact to local

hydrology?

3. What social perception,

vulnerability, adaptation?

Time for SpaceVulnerability Case-Studies

• Llanganuco-25% glacier area (est 2010)

– Sample-52 households

• 2.3% of population

• Quilcayhuanca-17% glacier area

– Sample-32 households

• 10.3% of population

• Querococha-2% glacier area (est 2010)

– Sample-40 households

• 5.5% of population

Surface area & volume

changes from multi-

sensors (1962-2008)

Surface area change

Data Source Year Area(km2)

Aerial photo 1962 1.155

ASTER 2001 0.671

ASTER 2002 0.547

ASTER 2004 0.474

ASTER 2005 0.347

ASTER 2007 0.259

ASTER 2008 0.165

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Year

Are

a m

2 x

10

6

85.7% Surface Area Loss (1962-2008)

Volume change

• Mean surface

lowering : 54m

• Maximum

lowering :

128m

Data Source Year diff dV (km3)

Aerial photo-

LiDAR1962-2008L 0.233

Photo DEM :

Ave. 12.67m (±22) lower than

LiDAR DEM

Hypsometry

Volume vs. Surface area

Volume (V) of

valley glaciers is

proportion to the

surface area (S)

Empirical function

relating changes in

V to S (Chen and

Ohmura, 1990)

UNDERESTIMATE

measurements

V=38.716S0.357

S

#1

#2

#3

#4

3. Tributaries of Rio Santa

2. Downstream confluence

1. Glacier watersheds

What is the glacier meltwater

impact downstream?A question of scale

Callejon de Huaylas: populated Rio Santa watershed

Rio Santa at hydro power plant:

• Significant decreasing trend

Key concerns

• What stream flow trends can be discerned in the

wake of sustained glacier retreat (fraction of ice

cover loss)?

– Peak water

• What is the actual status of regional water

availability?

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

Dis

charg

e (

m3/s

)

La Balsa 1954-2008 daily discharge

Moore et al., 2009

Glacier coverage by tributary watershed

annual fraction of ice loss,

The La Balsa watershed,

has an average of 0.61 %

area loss per year.

The average values for

the period of 1990-2009

was double that for the

period of 1930-2009