building a low-carbon economy – tackling climate change: the business opportunities professor...

Building a Low-Carbon Economy –Tackling Climate Change: the

Business Opportunities

Professor Julia KingClimate Change Committee Member

Vice-Chancellor, Aston University, Birmingham

Be Birmingham Summit 26th June 2009

www.theccc.org.uk

In Dec 08 the CCC set out challenging targets for Government…

These challenging targets will drive major new business opportunities across a range of sectors

Long term target: 80% reduction in Kyoto GHG on 1990 levels by 2050Long term target: 80% reduction in Kyoto GHG on 1990 levels by 2050

Recommendation to reduce emissions by at least 34% by 2020... Recommendation to reduce emissions by at least 34% by 2020...

And by 42% by 2020 in event of global dealAnd by 42% by 2020 in event of global deal

Interim target now accepted by Government and written into the legislation. Also commitment to ask the CCC to review its recommendations following a global deal

Interim target now accepted by Government and written into the legislation. Also commitment to ask the CCC to review its recommendations following a global deal

2050 - the scale of the UK challenge

2006 emissions

International aviation & shipping*

UK non-CO2 GHGs

Other CO2

Industry (heat & industrial processes)

Residential & commercial heat

Domestic transport

Electricity generation

* bunker fuels basis

2050 objective

159 Mt CO2e

695 Mt CO2e

77% cut (= 80% vs. 1990)

Meeting required reductions

Reducing power sector emissions:

Renewables (wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS

Reducing power sector emissions:

Renewables (wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS

Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Behaviour change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,

storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry

Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Behaviour change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,

storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry

Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Sustainable biofuels

Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Sustainable biofuels

Application of power to transport

and heat

Power generation to 2050

POWER SECTOR: required reductions

Emissions intensity to 2050

HOMES: emissions reduction from energy use in homes, MtCO2

HOMES: residential sector MACC - technical potential in 2020

TRANSPORT: a key role for ultra low carbon vehicles in achieving CO2 targets

Key message: decarbonisation of power sector to open the way for using electricity (directly or via renewable hydrogen) in the transport sector in the long term

MARKAL scenarios to 2050: reduction in carbon intensity of the transport sector first with conventional technology then with electric, plug-in hybrids, second generation biofuels and hydrogen.

MARKAL scenarios to 2050: reduction in carbon intensity of the transport sector first with conventional technology then with electric, plug-in hybrids, second generation biofuels and hydrogen.

Extended ambition scenario for 2020: after slow start, around 20% of new car sales are either EVs or PHEVs by 2020, the rest are various types of hybrids. Increased penetration of biofuels. EU target of 95g CO2/Km is met in the UK.

Extended ambition scenario for 2020: after slow start, around 20% of new car sales are either EVs or PHEVs by 2020, the rest are various types of hybrids. Increased penetration of biofuels. EU target of 95g CO2/Km is met in the UK.

Current ambition scenario for 2020: some increase in vehicle fuel efficiency, primarily through increased hybrid car uptake but no additional biofuels and no penetration of either EVs or PHEVs by 2020. EU target is not met.

Current ambition scenario for 2020: some increase in vehicle fuel efficiency, primarily through increased hybrid car uptake but no additional biofuels and no penetration of either EVs or PHEVs by 2020. EU target is not met.

Industry view of the high-level technology & R&D roadmap for decarbonising transport

Source: New Automotive Innovation and Growth Team (NAIGT), 2009

EVs: new technologies – new opportunities

Arup/CENEX report

for BERR and DfT 2008

New car sales by year(extreme range scenario)

Number of cars in the UK car parc(extreme range scenario)

Electric vehicles are feasible now

► The infrastructure is almost in place

► Some vehicles are already available► highly efficient► ranges of 60 to 200+ miles► some are glamorous!

► Additional power system load is easily manageable

► 17% additional generation capacity► exploit night time trough and day

time dips with smart metering

New business opportunities: POWER

New initiatives in power generation

Renewable Obligation Certificates: 1.5 -15% renewables by 2020

bioenergy

combined heat and power

major expansion of wind energy: 3 – 28GW by 2020

CCS, new nuclear build

New business opportunities: HOMES

DECC heat and energy saving strategy (consultation Feb 09)

by 2020 up to 7 million homes offered ‘whole house’ packages

if this cost £6k per house: £42bn business

new types of business, new business models

employment and skills

High efficiency appliances, solar, air and ground source heat

pumps…

New business opportunities: CARS

Ultra low carbon vehicle demonstratorannounced 23rd June: over 300 ultra low carbon vehicles in the UK

the largest group in Birmingham/Coventry

EVs and PHEVs potentially 50% of new car sales in the UK by

2023: 1.4 million vehicles

Skills for maintenance and repair

New infrastructure

High efficiency electric motors, AC…

The low carbon economy will offer a

lot of opportunities: how can we make

sure we are ready for them?

Thank you

www.theccc.org.uk