building risk resilient infrastructure: incorporating ... · accounting for and estimating risks...

Building risk resilient infrastructure: incorporating disaster and climate risk into Energy, Transport and

ICT Sector planning in Central Asia

Madhurima Sarkar-SwaisgoodExpert group meeting: Advancing co-deployment financing through

the Asia Pacific Information Superhighway in North and

Central Asia31 January, Almaty Kazakhstan

Formerly an infrastructure investment

Estimate global investment ininfrastructure 2015-2030approximately USD 90 trillion

Unless this investment is riskinformed, it represents a majorinvestment in future disasters

Message #1

Disaster and climate risk is outpacing

resilience in North and Central Asia

Disasters are impacting the sub-region

Occurrence of disasters,especially from extremeweather events has been on therise in the past two decades

1

10

100

Floods Earthquakes Extreme Temperature Landslides

Num

ber

of

occura

nces

(log s

cale

)

Increased occurance of extreme weather and seismic

events in Central Asia

1980-1999 2000-2018

Damage and loss fromdisasters, especially fromextreme weather events hasbeen on the rise

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

Floods Earthquakes Extreme Temperature Landslides

'000 U

SD

(lo

g s

cale

)

Increased damage and loss from extreme weather and

seismic events in Central Asia

1980-1999 2000-2018

Source: ESCAP analysis based on EM-DAT data (2019). Countries analyzed include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russian Federation, Tajikistan,

Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

Future disaster impacts in the sub-region

Source: Global Assessment Report, 2015

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

Average annual loss by 2030

(% of GDP)

Earthquake Wind Storm surge Tsunami Floods Volcano

Message #2

Disasters are shared vulnerabilities that pose

high risks to critical infrastructure sectors ;

disaster impacts are amplified because sectors

are interconnected

Risk Information= Evidence Based

Decision Making

1. Identify critical infrastructure sectors @ risk;

2. Identify inter-linkages and interdependencies among critical sectors;

3. Put in place “hard” (built environment) and “soft” (land use plan, building codes) resiliency.

Multi-hazards across the sub-region

Seismic hazard PGA RT 475 years

Landslide

Flood hazard 100 years

LEGENDHAZARDS

Seismic hazard PGA RT 475 years

LEGEND

HAZARDS

ICT infrastructure

ICT – Fiber optic cables

Hazard risk to ICT infrastructure

Hazard risk to transport infrastructure

Seismic hazard PGA RT 475 years

Landslide

Flood hazard 100 years

LEGEND

Asian highway nodes

HAZARDS

Road network – Asian highway

Seismic hazard PGA RT 475 years

Landslide

Flood hazard 100 years

LEGEND

HAZARDS

Energy infrastructure (power plants)

Solar

Coal

Hydropower

Hazard risk to energy infrastructure

(Source: based on Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015; ESCAP, Network Analysis, 2014)

Multiple disaster risk needs to be accounted for when looking

at infrastructure projects and co-deployment

Transportation and ICT co-deployment

Flood risk

Earthquake risk(Transboundary)

Earthquake risk(Transboundary)

Parts of the Asian Highway are in multi-hazard disaster risk hotspots

Accounting for and estimating risks from

current and future hazards need to be

mainstreamed into infrastructure planning

Message #3

Earthquake and landslide risk

(Transboundary)

Flood risk

Flood risk

Earthquake risk

Example- Transport infrastructure connecting Almaty and

Bishkek

LEGEND

Capital cities

Asian highway nodes

Road network – Asian highway

Asian highway connecting Bishkek and

Almaty

Example- Transport infrastructure connecting Almaty and

Bishkek

Bishkek and Almaty transport exposure to multi-hazards

Seismic hazard PGA RT 475 years

Landslide

Flood hazard 100 years

LEGEND

Major cities

Asian highway nodes

HAZARDS

Road network – Asian highway

Asian highway connecting Bishkek and

Almaty

Landslide riskLandslide riskHigh Earthquake risk

Some Earthquake risk

Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Seismic hazard PGA RT 475 years

Landslide

Flood hazard 100 years

LEGEND

Major cities

Asian highway nodes

HAZARDS

ICT infrastructure

Road network – Asian highway

ICT – Fiber optic cables

ICT cables

Some Earthquake risk

Landslide riskLandslide and high earthquake

risk

Bishkek and Almaty ICT exposure to multi-hazards

Earthquake risk

Some earthquake riskSolar

Hydropower

Coal

Landslide risk Landslide risk

Flood Risk

Bishkek and Almaty infrastructure exposure to multi-hazards

Message #3

Climate change is going to exacerbate hazards

and pose additional risks; probabilistic models

need to be developed to account for these risks

on infrastructure sectors

Climate change is projected to accelerate in the sub-region

There is general agreement that temperatures are expected to rise by 2030by around one to two degrees Centigrade.

Available estimates for precipitation indicate a correlation between risingtemperature and heightened average annual precipitation.

The level of UNCERTAINITY is

growing….we need future climate data to estimate the

risks

Source: UNDP 2009, Natural disaster risks in Central Asia- A synthesis

Hydropower exposure to water stress and drought (2030-2060 projection)

Drought/water stress can poses a substantial

risk in the energy sector, particularly when

looking at hydropower

(Source: Based on Water Risk Atlas by World Resources Institute, 2015; Based on ESCAP Asia Pacific Energy Portal, 2017)

Addressing future disaster and climate risks requires adopting a probabilistic approach towards measuring risk

Probabilistic risk models

Probabilistic risk models can provide robust estimates of risk for

countries and specific infrastructure sectors

Metrics include Annual Average Loss (AAL) and Probable

Maximum Loss (PML)

The Global Risk Model: Annual Average Loss (AAL)

Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Mongolia

Message #4

ESCAP has been at the forefront of providing

disaster risk analysis to countries in Asia and the

Pacific and is developing sector specific AAL for

countries in Central Asia under the Development

Account project

Country EXPOSED VALUE AALAAL/Capital

stockAAL/GFCF

AAL/Social

expenditure

Million US$ Million US$ [‰] [%] [%]Kazakhstan 734.310 750,46 1,02 1,73 4,10Kyrgyzstan 18.467 92,68 5,02 3,90 8,20

Mongolia 36.588 34,87 0,95 1,20 2,22

Multi-hazard AAL (earthquakes and floods)

Estimating possible direct and indirect losses

Country AAL AAL/GDPAAL/Capital

stockAAL/GFCF

AAL/Social

expenditure

Million US$ [%] [‰] [%] [%]Kazakhstan 1876,15 1,02 2,55 4,33 10,26

Kyrgyzstan 231,7 3,47 12,55 9,75 20,51

Mongolia 87,175 0,74 2,38 3,00 5,55

Loss

Exceedance r

ate [#

/year]

Current risk

Loss

Exceedance r

ate [#

/year]

Resilience target

Risk reduction

Identify risk management alternatives

Structural:Adoption of standards for new infrastructure investments

Engineering assessments to retrofit critical infrastructure

Financial:Design of risk transfer

instruments

Estimation of costs of risk transfer

Response:Contingency plans

Early warning systems

Reduces Direct Loss

Reduces Net Loss and

accelerates recovery

Improves system performance and reduces the Indirect Loss.

Risk metrics for resilient infrastructure

National multi-hazard

risk profile

High resolution infrastructure

sector risk modelRisk management strategy

LEC/ AAL / PML

Extensive risk

Identify financing gaps

Implications for sustainable

development

Define resilience targets

and strategy

Integrate into public and

private investment planning

AAL / PML values for each sector

or region (energy, transport etc.)

Identification of critical risks in

networks and nodes

Modelling of indirect losses

Identification of risk layers.

Define risk appetite

Adoption of standards for new

infrastructure investments

Retrofit critical infrastructure

Risk transfer

Contingency plans and early

warning systems

Finance and

planning ministries

Sector line ministries and sub-

national governmentsUtility companies,

infrastructure operators

Cost-effective risk

management strategies

Climate change scenarios

Development Account project

Develop multi-hazard risk assessment and future cost estimates in Central Asia

Partner with CEDRR to hold joint training and capacity

development workshops

Going forward…

THANKYOU

Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood, PhDEconomic Affairs OfficerICT and Disaster Risk Reduction Division, UNESCAPEmail: sarkar-swaisgood@un.org

Consultant: Maria Dewi BernadetEmail: maria.dewi@un.org