business management - analysis

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http://AcademyOfKnowledge.orgAnalysis - Business EngineersMohammad Tawfik

Forecasting in Business

Mohammad Tawfik

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What is forecasting?

● Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed.

Wikipedia

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Why Forecasting?

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Predicting the future!

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Inventory requirements

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Financial requirements

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Shipping requirements

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Market expectations

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Human resources requirements

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A good forecast must be ...

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Meaningful

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Reliable

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Accurate

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Timely

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How?

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Data, Data, Data!

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Naive forecasting

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Judgmental forecasting

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Crowd wisdom

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Weighted averages

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Time regression

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Steps of forecasting

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Determine purpose

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Establish time horizon

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Select technique

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Obtain data

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Forecast!

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Follow up

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Bibliography

● BUSINESS-PLAN FORECASTING, by Steven D. Peterson, Peter E. Jaret, Barbara Findlay Schenck

● Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies, by Conrad Carlberg

● Sales Forecasting: A Practical Guide, by Mark Blessington● Sales and Operations Planning The How-To Handbook,

by Thomas F. Wallace and Robert A Stahl● Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analys,

by John Guerard