business opportunities in the real-time automation & controls (rtac) marketplace ed finamore,...
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Business Opportunities in the Real-time Automation & Controls (RTAC) Marketplace
Ed Finamore, Electric Utility Practice Mgr., InfoNetrix LLC
Sunday, Sept. 7, 2003 • Wyndham Anatole Hotel
Dallas, Texas
Presentation Overview
• Goals: Today 2003 & Beyond
• Summary of Q2-2003 Study Results
• Base Year 2002 Results
• What’s Ahead
Goals: Today
• Provide Information Study Methodology Study Leadership
and Team
• We Listen! Feedback on
Project Activity Reports
Suggestions for Improvement
• Data Format• Database Content
Goals: 2003
• Build the best team• Become the Market
Research Leader in: T&D Automation Substation Automation
• Achieve 100% Client Satisfaction
• Work Hard & Have Fun• Be recognized as being
the best source for project and market data for all targeted markets
InfoNetrix Program Content
Study Team
• RTAC Study Team Mike Smith, Principal-in-Charge Ed Finamore, PE, MBA, Project Manager
• Don Block, MS, PE, Senior Analyst• Russ Savage, Sr. Analyst
Study Methodology
• Study Methodology Build a team of utility IT/automation experts
• Team members have an average of 20+ years of utility automation/IT experience
Build a database of all electric utilities in the US and Canada
• Database contains most US/Canadian utilities• Interview coverage targets utilities with 30,000+
metered customers
Leverage the skills, expertise, and experience of the study team and research methodology to provide project data and market insights
Report Format & Content
• Business Horizons™ Reports Quarterly Report Format Electronic Delivery* MS-Excel spreadsheet
format (optional) Custom reports (optional) Various report tabulations
(*Website access coming soon)
Company Company XXXXXXXXXContact XXX XXXX Title SCADA Supv Project 1
Address XXXX St/Pr XX T /D/ B B
City XXXX Zip 12345 LDate 04/12/02
Phone (XXX) XXX-XXXX Ext Meters 310000
Fax T Subs 6
Email Dsubs 34
Type IOU
Existing Existing Sys EMS/SCADA NumberRTUs 40
Applications SCADA, Power flow analysis, State Cost, $000s $1,100
Estimator
Cost F/S Soft
Supplier ACS Award Date 06/01/88
OperatingSys Unix Completion Date 10/01/00
Consultant KEMA Consult Award 06/01/87
Con Tasks Specification ConsultCost,$000s $75
Communication Leased lines CommADate
CommSupplier CommLDate
Protocol(s) ACS,DNP CommCost, $000s $0
Planned Planned Sys Add DA Pl # RTUs 20
Plan'd App Automated switching, recloser Budget, $000s $150
control, Feeder monitoring
Budget F/S Soft
PossSuppliers ACS, S&C, Open Spec Date 01/01/03
Plan'dOpSys Unix Bid Date 04/01/03
Award Date 07/01/03
PossConsultant None ConsultAdate
Consult Tasks Budget, $000s $0
Plan'd Comm. Open CommAdate 07/01/03
PossCommSup Open CommBud,$000s $50
Planned Protocol DNPCommentsWill soon begin the migration to DNP. KEMA was involved in the specification on the 1998 system and also was involved in the site acceptance testing and cost justification for the 2000 system. Some of the substations listed above are T & D. Using Cooper reclosers. DA is being explored now - they hope to get started in 2003.
Project Datasheet Format
Summary of Q2-2003 Results
• Total Calls are Tabulated By Type By Size
• Projects Identified/Sorted into Various Categories Systems RTU Add-ons Communications Consulting
Dollar Values Summarized to Provide Current Forecasts
And General Industry Outlook
Total Utilities Called: Q2-03 (by Type)
Total: 267 Utilities
5%11%
18%
23%
43%CAN
FSD
IOU
MUN
REC
Total Projects Identified, Q2 2003
Number of Projects
Number of RTUs
Total ValueMillions
Systems 87 862 51.2
RTU Add-ons 48 1571 9.7
Communications 59 N/A 5.1
Consulting 14 N/A 1
Total Utilities Called: Q2-03 (by Size) Total: 267 Utilities
37%
30%
12%
13%
8% 0%
<20K
20 - 50K
50 - 100K
100 - 500K
>500K
37%
30%
12%
13%
8% 0%
<20K
20 - 50K
50 - 100K
100 - 500K
>500K
A Few Statistics About the Q2 Projects
• Largest System Project Identified $5 million (est.) SCADA/DA Upgrade/Add-on at a Large IOU
• Smallest System Project Identified $10,000 SCADA Project at a Small Municipal
• Average $ Value of a System Project Mean = $588,000 Median = $300,000
Dollar Value of Reported Q2 System Projects Exceeds Q1 Results
The Market Recovery Is Gaining Momentum!
Observations, Trends, etc.
• Q1-2003 Rebound Continued in Q2 Many smaller custom projects- RECs involved Base monitoring vs. advanced systems Less software; more intelligent devices (IEDs) More shared assets: meters, radios, outage/load
management functions
• Protocol Issues DNP – de facto standard, but less of an issue Use of Ethernet continues to grow
• Communications Trends Increased use of fiber networks/video security Cyber-security vulnerability issues
Summary of 2002 Baseline Results
• Total Calls Made By Type By Size
• Total # of Projects Identified, #/RTUS, & $ Value Systems RTU Add-ons Communications Consulting
• Supplier Summary “Mentions” By Segment
2002 Utilities Called By Type:Good Representative Sample
5% 5%
15%
1%
28%
46%
CAN
FSD
IOU
ISO/RTO
MUN
REC
5% 5%
15%
1%
28%
46%
CAN
FSD
IOU
ISO/RTO
MUN
REC
2002 Utilities Called By Size:All Major Utilities Contacted
37%
31%
12%
11%
9% 0%
<20K
20 - 50K
50 - 100K
100 - 500K
>500K
37%
31%
12%
11%
9% 0%
<20K
20 - 50K
50 - 100K
100 - 500K
>500K
Total Projects Identified (2002)
Number of Projects
Number of RTUs
Total ValueMillions
Systems 206 3,325 120.7
RTU Add-ons 108 10,240 34.7
Communications 149 N/A 12.2
Consulting 47 N/A 3.8
Supplier “Mentions” Summary
SUPPLIERS Percentage of "Mentions" Among Planned System Projects
Utility Type CAN FSD IOU MUN REC Overall
ABB --- --- 2% 3% 5% 4%
ACS --- 7% 2% 6% 8% 6%
Alstom ESCA --- --- 15% --- --- 2%
C3-ilex --- --- --- 2% 2% 1%
GE 17% --- 5% 2% 3% 4%
Metso --- --- --- 5% 3% 3%
Open Systems Intl --- 7% --- 1% 6% 3%
QEI --- --- --- 6% 4% 4%
Qualitrol --- --- 5% --- 1% 1%
SEL 11% 13% 2% 3% 3% 4%
Siemens 6% --- 5% 7% 4% 5%
Survalent 6% --- --- 3% --- 1%
Other 6% --- 17% 13% 14% 13%
None Mentioned 54% 73% 47% 49% 47% 49%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
What’s Ahead…
• Q3-2003 Report Progress Started in July, 2003 Project Activity Report to be delivered mid-October 2003 Will contain results of approximately 250 utility updates
• 2003 Year-end Results Will again call nearly 1,000 US/Canadian electric utilities Upcoming Summits
• TDMS Spring 2004 Summit tentatively scheduled for January 2004 in Orlando (co-located with 2004 DistribuTech Conference)
• GMCS 2004 planned for April in Seattle (co-located with GITA Conference)
• UCCS planned for May 2004 in Miami (Partnership with UtiliPoint International; Albuquerque, NM)
• New programs for 2003 & 2004 coming soon: Stay Tuned!
Thank you for your participation!
The InfoNetrix Team
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