by: james delk. decision making is the study of identifying and choosing alternatives based on the...
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Decision-Making Techniques
By: James Delk
What are Decision-Making Techniques(DMTs)?
Decision making is the study of identifying and choosing alternatives based on the values and preferences of the decision maker. Making a decision implies that there are alternative choices to be considered, and in such a case we want not only to identify as many of these alternatives as possible but to choose the one that best fits with our goals, objectives, desires, values, and so on.. (Harris (1980))
Figure 1[1]
What are DMTs cont.
“Decision making techniques fall into three major categories: random; intuition based; or analytical. ”[2]
Requirements
Apples to oranges? Assigning values
Figure 2[3]
DMT Setup Define the problem Determine requirements Establish goals Identify alternatives Define criteria Select the method to be used Evaluate against criteria Validate against problem[4]
Why use DMTs
Physical representation of options
Double check variables Future reference Presentations Standard of measurement “if you don’t know where
your going it doesn’t matter which way you go”(Lewis Carroll)
Figure 3[5]
DMT Example
question/decision/option:
pros (for - advantages)
scorecons (against - disadvantages)
score
totals totals
Pros vs. Cons (weighted)
Figure 5[6]
DMT ExampleAnalytic Hierarchy Process
Figure 6[2]
DMT ExampleSimple Decision Tree
Figure 7[2]
the number of possible decision trees is exponential in the number of attributes
DMT ExampleSimple Influence Diagram
Figure 8[2]
DMT ExampleLinear Programming
Figure 9[7]
Computer Science?
AI Databases Programmi
ng System
design Neural
networks
Figure 10[8]
Computer Science cont.
System architecture
Figure 11[8]
Game Theory Game theory is "the study of mathematical
models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers.“[9]
A BA –1, 1 3, –3B 0, 0 –2, 2
Zero-sum gain game theory
Figure 12[9]
Multi Agent Systems A multi-agent system (MAS) is a system composed of
multiple interacting intelligent agents within an environment.[10]
Multi-agent systems are dependent upon a theoretical base that is provided through game theory.
Multi-agent system
Figure 13[10]
MAS cont. Allowing
multiple units to break down computations to the easiest level for completion by many different agents
Figure 14[11]
Game theory sample code
''' Approximate the strategy oddments for 2 person zero-sum games of perfect information. Applies the iterative solution method described by J.D. Williams in his classic book, The Compleat Strategyst, ISBN 0-486-25101-2. See chapter 5, page 180 for details. ‘'' from operator import add, neg def solve(payoff_matrix, iterations=100): 'Return the oddments (mixed strategy ratios) for a given payoff matrix' transpose = zip(*payoff_matrix) numrows = len(payoff_matrix) numcols = len(transpose) row_cum_payoff = [0] * numrows col_cum_payoff = [0] * numcols colpos = range(numcols) rowpos = map(neg, xrange(numrows)) colcnt = [0] * numcols rowcnt = [0] * numrows active = 0 for i in xrange(iterations): rowcnt[active] += 1 col_cum_payoff = map(add, payoff_matrix[active], col_cum_payoff) active = min(zip(col_cum_payoff, colpos))[1] colcnt[active] += 1 row_cum_payoff = map(add, transpose[active], row_cum_payoff) active = -max(zip(row_cum_payoff, rowpos))[1] value_of_game = (max(row_cum_payoff) + min(col_cum_payoff)) / 2.0 / iterations return rowcnt, colcnt, value_of_game
Figure 15[12]
O((m+n)*iterations
Example AI processIBM’s Watson AI’s decision processhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cU-AhmQ363I
Figure 16[13]
References [1] hhttp://chamonixvue.wordpress.com/2012/02/06/decision-making/ [2] http://www.decision-making-solutions.com/decision_making_techniques.html [3]http://blogs.helsinki.fi/dervin/2012/03/13/cfp-appels-and-oranges/ [4] Fülöp, J.: Introduction to Decision Making Methods. Working Paper 05-6,
Laboratory of Operations Research and Decision Systems, Computer and Automation Institute, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, November 2005
[5]http://djcase.com/case-in-point/ginny-wallace/structured-decision-making-common-sense-made-explicit
[6] http://www.businessballs.com/problemsolving.htm [7]http://www.cs.duke.edu/courses/spring08/cps296.2/ [8]http://www.ece.ubc.ca/sites/default/files/Falessi%202011%20CSUR.pdf [9] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory [10] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-agent_system [11]http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2012/02/superorganism-open-forum.html [12]
http://code.activestate.com/recipes/496825-game-theory-payoff-matrix-solver/ [13] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:DeepQA.svg
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