by lourdes v. tibig
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by
Lourdes V. Tibig
Presented at the In-Session Workshop on Impacts of and Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change,
Bonn, Germany, 18 June 2004
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The Philippines
7,107 islands
total area: ~ 300,000 km2
total coastline : 33,900 km.
total forest lands: 15 million hectares
wetlands:14,100 km2
groundwater resources:50,000 km2
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climate
• high maximum and minimum temperatures
• heavy annual rainfall : 1000 mm to 5000 mm
• mean tropical cyclone occurrences : 20 per year
trends
• increasing daytime temperatures, more hot days
• increasing night time temperatures, more warm nights
• no significant trends in rainfall
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non-climate factors
• demography:
~ 80 million in 2000 with an annual growth rate of 2.4%
large population in megacities
• economy:
mostly agriculture-based
• land-use change:
enormous due to industrialization and population growth
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How are climate variability /change risks perceived in the Philippines?
• weather/climate-related hazards (in terms of damages, fatalities and social and economic costs)
• socio-economic vulnerabilities (including environmental changes/degradation)
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• weather/climate-related hazards
floods
- tropical cyclones
- storm surges
- intense monsoon rains
droughts
- El Niño -related
Number and intensity of these extreme events have been seen to increase.
Damages due to these events have also been increasing.
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NUMBER OF DEATHS
Earthquake & Others 25%
tropical Cyclones 68%
Floodings 5%
Landslides 2%
PERSONS AFFECTED
Tropical Cyclones 77%
Earthquake & Others 4%
Floodings 13%
Drought 6%
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGESTropical Cyclones 70%
Earthquake & Others 15%
Floodings 4%
Drought 11%
Figure 2: Major natural disasters in the Philippines (1971- 2000)
In 1995, 3 destructive tropical cyclones caused
fatalities :
1,164 risk is 1 person in every 50,000
losses:
US$ 601.75 million contribution of 1 person in every 91 or contribution of 708,000 persons to the GNP for 1995
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vulnerability to climate variability
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5
10
15
20
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1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001Year
Lo
sses/d
am
ag
es (
P b
illio
n)
Figure 3: The costs of disastrous tropical cyclones have exhibited an upward trend in recent decades.
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Climate change risks for each sector
Agriculture and food supply sector
highly dependent on water (both a resource and a hazard)
Figure 6: Philippine rice production. (Arrows indicate El Niño events.)
In 1998, the El Niño event caused an 80% - drop in agricultural
production.
- for rice production alone, a US$ 100 million loss
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Coastal resources
Its vulnerability :
- 10 cm/decade SLR in some coastal cities
- long history of storm surges (48 known occurrences in 50 years with as much as 9-m storm surge height)
- some areas already partially inundated
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Coastal resources (continued)
endangered access to clean water during floods
intrusion of saltwater in its agricultural areas
aggravated flooding potential esp. in low-lying areas
higher risks to lives and damages in coastal areas
impacts on marine ecosystems (reefs, corals, etc.)
- more frequent episodes of toxic red tides
- migration of fish to areas with more favorable conditions leading to diminished harvest (coastal fishing = 40 – 60% of total
fish catch)
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Water resources
impacts of La Niña /El Niño
La Niña more intense rains floods, soil erosion more tropical cyclone occurrences
Climate change impacts
frequency of floods/droughts amount/quality of water (impacts on agriculture,
power generation, public health, etc.)
El Niño diminished rains less groundwater
shorter return periods of floods
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Human health sector
Figure 7: Potential health impacts of climate and its change
will further lead to climatic stress on human health
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More extreme events will lead to:
• disruptions of environmental health services and infrastructures (water supply,public sanitation, etc.)
• significant rise in water-, food- and vector-borne diseases
• conditions that could cause outbreak of diseases like dengue, malaria and cholera (esp. in depressed areas)
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some expected climate risks for health
• could cause an increase in epidemic potential of 12 to 27% for malaria, 31 to 47% for dengue, 11 to 17% for schistosomiasis, etc.
• more frequent cholera and diarrhea incidences
• could also cause an increase in respiratory illnesses
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Summary:
Climate change will alter the number and
frequency of extreme events which could cause
the exponential increase of adverse impacts
on humans, natural ecosystems and the
environment in the Philippines, (most
important of which are human survival and the
quality of life).
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Climate change will have lasting consequences.
In addressing climate change,
the job is just beginning.
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