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COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Terrorism in the 21st Century:
An Introduction
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Notes: - The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the position of the United States Military Academy, the Department of the Army, or the Department of Defense.
DoD Disclaimer
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Understanding the Strategy
• NATO definition of terrorism:The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence
against individuals or property in an attempt to coerce or intimidate governments or societies to achieve political, religious or ideological objectives
• Sun Tzu– Know yourself
– Know your allies
– Know your enemy
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Sun Tzu: Know Your Enemy
• What motivates terrorists?• How does someone become a suicide bomber?• What do these people want? • What are they capable of?• How do they view this struggle?
“You have to be lucky everyday – We only have to be lucky once” - IRA Bomber
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Key Terms
• Vision• Power• Belief• Strategy• Tactic• Duty• Shame• Freedom fighter• Self-sacrifice
AB95-5.PPT// ##
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Key Terms
• Vision – “Shape the future”• Power to achieve the vision• Belief in a higher cause• Strategy – to compel, coerce, etc.• Tactic – bombing, assassination, etc.• Duty to the cause, to family, to God• Shame upon you for not doing seeking justice• Freedom fighter – must kill to secure freedom (?)• Self-sacrifice – to be killed in the service of a higher cause
is “heroic”
AB95-5.PPT// ##
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism StudiesAB95-5.PPT
// ##
Primary Types
• Left-wing• Right-wing• Ethno-nationalist (separatist)• Religious• State• State-Sponsored
Defining Terrorism
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Left-wing Terrorists
• Driven by liberal or idealist political concepts• Prefer revolutionary anti-authoritarian anti-
materialist agendas• Typically target elites that symbolize authority• Examples:
– Anarchists, Earth First, Animal Liberation Front
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Right-wing Terrorists
• Often target race and ethnicity• Examples:
– Aryan Brotherhood, the Order, White Aryan Nation
Ethno-nationalist/Separatists
• Usually have clear territorial objectives– Liberation/separation– Popular support usually along ethnic/racial lines.
• Examples: – Tamil Tigers, Chechens, ETA, IRA, PKK
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Religious terrorists
• Belief in a struggle of good vs evil– Acting along desires of a diety – target is thus not
necessarily human– Feel unconstrained by law – higher calling– Complete alienation from existing socio/political order– Support may be diffuse
• Examples: – al Qaeda, Hizballah, Hamas, Jemaah Islamiyah,
Christian Militia, Aum Shinrikyo, Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, Amal, Lehi, Irgun
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
State Terrorism
• Governments can engage in acts of terrorism
• Examples:– Iraq, Saddam Hussein deployed chemical
weapons in Kurdish villages, killing thousands– Intent was to frighten other villages into
stopping their political revolt– It worked
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
State-Sponsored Terrorism
• Governments can also support terrorist groups that do their bidding
• Examples:– Iran, which supports Hizballah– Before 9/11, Hizballah had killed more
Americans than any other terror group– Embassy bombings, kidnappings, targeted
assassinations, suicide attack on Marine barracks at Beirut airport
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon23 October 1983
• 241 Dead• 105 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
A Brief History of Modern Terrorism• Roughly 130-year history• 4 Waves, each roughly 40-45 years
– Anarchist Wave– Anti-Colonial/Decolonization Wave– New Left Wave/Leftist anti-Western sentiment– Religious Inspiration Wave
• Issue to consider for each wave:– Doctrines of terror– Technology (especially for communication/propoganda)– Avenues of funding and support
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Terrorism as Strategy• Terrorism as means to achieve goals and objectives
• Strategic goals include:– Political change (e.g., overthrow govt., drive out occupiers, etc.)– Social change (e.g., France headscarf ban)– Economic change (e.g., stop resource export)– Religious change (e.g., fundamentalism)
• Overall goal: create a “better” world
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Some Strategic Objectives of Terrorism
• Recognition: Gaining national or international recognition for their cause; recruiting new personnel; raising funds; demonstrating their strength
• Coercion: Force a desired behavior of an individual or government
• Intimidation: Prevent individuals, groups, or governments from acting
• Provocation: Provoking overreaction by a government to the attack on symbolic targets or personnel, thereby gaining sympathy for their cause.
• Insurgency support: Forcing the government to overextend itself in dealing with the threat, thereby allowing the insurgency to gain support and commit further attacks against the government.
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
New York, World Trade CenterFebruary 26, 19936 Dead, 1,042 Injured
Oklahoma CityMurrah Federal Building,
19 April 1995168 Dead, 490 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Matsumoto, JapanMarch, 19947 Dead, 34 Injured
Sarin gas kills by paralyzing muscles so that a person cannot breathe.
Sarin enters the body by inhalation, ingestion, and through the eyes and skin.
Symptoms begin with watery eyes, drooling, and excessive sweating, and then rapidly progress to difficulty in breathing, dimness of vision, nausea, vomiting, twitching, and headache.
Ultimately the victim will become comatose and suffocate as a consequence of convulsive spasms.
Tokyo, JapanTeito Rapid Transit Authority (Subway System) March 20, 199512 Dead, 5,000 Injured
Aum Shinrikyo and the Sarin Gas AttacksJapan, 1994 & 1995
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Khobar Towers - Dhahran, Saudi Arabia 25 June 1996
• 19 Dead
• 240 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
American Embassy Bombings, Kenya and TanzaniaAugust 1998 200 Americans, Kenyans, and Tanzanians deadOver 5,000 injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
1999 LAX Attack Plan
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
The Strategy of Terrorism
• Increasing interest in “soft targets” (economically strategic impact, and less protected) such as:
– pubs in Northern Ireland & London UK– open markets & cafes in Israel– international airport, Sri Lanka– bus in Manila, the Philippines– shopping mall in southern Philippines– nightclub in Bali, Indonesia– banks in Istanbul, Turkey– hotel in Jakarta, Indonesia– nightclub in Berlin, Germany
– and, of course . . .
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
New York City & Washington, DCSeptember 11, 2001
2,973 Dead, and 10,000+ Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Modern Trends in Global Terrorism
• More violent attacks (increasing lethality)• Increasing use of suicide bombers
(the ultimate smart bomb)
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Karachi, PakistanMay 8, 2002 June 14, 2002
12 Dead50 Injured
14 Dead, including11 French engineers
Bus attackAttack on U.S. Consulate
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Bali, IndonesiaOctober 12, 2002 202 Dead
350 Injured
Citizens from 21 countries, mostly Western tourists, were killed in the blasts
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Casablanca, MoroccoMay 17, 2003
44 Dead107 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Jakarta, IndonesiaAugust 5, 2003
12 Dead60 Injured
J.W. Marriott Hotel, Jakarta
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Riyadh, Saudi ArabiaNovember 8, 2003 April 21, 2004
4 Dead148 Injured
3 simultaneous suicide car bomb attacks on Al-Muhaya apartment complex
Attack on Security Services Headquarters
17 Dead122 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Istanbul, TurkeyNovember 20, 2003
27 Dead400 Injured
Primary Targets: British consulate and the HSBC bank headquarters
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Madrid, SpainMarch 11, 2004
191 Dead1,035 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Jakarta, IndonesiaSeptember 9, 2004
9 Dead173 Injured
Australian Embassy was primary target
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
London, UKJuly 7, 2005
54 Dead716 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Strategy and Recruitment• Terrorism is an individual’s strategic choice most
often driven by a combination of:– Intense grievances– Sense of crisis– Address a power imbalance - empower the
disenfranchised
• The ties that bind: training camps, extended family, social networks; trusted networks = key
• Combination of ideology and psychology
• No constraints re: geography, organizational affiliation, etc.
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Modern Terrorism and Recruitment
• Overall goal: create a “better” world– Powerful message for recruitment . . .
– Video 1– Video 2– Video 3– Video 4– Video 5
Jihad
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Strategy and Training
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Strategy and Training
• Afghanistan• Algeria• Bosnia• Chechnya• Colombia• Egypt• Indonesia• Japan• Kashmir• Lebanon• Libya
Establish training camps – developing the will to kill and the skill to kill
• Operational space: Geographic isolation • Teachers: Experts in relevant knowledge, e.g., military combat experience• Committed learners• Time, money, and basic necessities
• Northern Ireland
• Peru• The Philippines• Somalia• Spain• Sri Lanka• Sudan• Syria• Turkey• United States• Uzbekistan
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Strategy and Training• Psychological dimensions
• Moral disengagement– Displacement of responsibility– Disregard for/distortion of consequences– Dehumanization– Moral justification
• Group power over behavior, personal decisions
• Preparation for martyrdom
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Suicide Terrorism as Logical StrategySuicide Terrorism as Logical Strategy
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
To be distinguished from:• High-risk missions w/out suicide as main intent• Fooled couriers • Suicide – without homicide – for a political cause
Definition of Suicide Terrorism
Intentionally killing oneself for the purpose of killing others, in the service
of a political or ideological goal
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Suicide Terrorism: Who?Suicide Terrorism: Who?
Perception: • Generalized profile of suicide
terrorists, including:
– Young– Single– Male– Uneducated– Religious fanatics
Reality• The “profile” is wrong• Suicide terrorists are:
– Preteen - mid-sixties
– Both single and married with families
– Both male and female
– Both educated and uneducated
– Not motivated by religious fanaticism
– World’s leader in suicide terror are Hindu; Tamil Tigers who are conducting insurgency against Sri Lanka
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Trends: Most deadly form of terrorism (so far)
• Israel: 0.5% of attacks, 56% of fatalities.
• U.S.: 9/11 – 10 times more deadly than any previous terrorist attack in history.– Hizballah, Lebanon
• 1981 attack on the Iraqi Embassy in Beirut• 1983 – attack on the U.S. Embassy in Beirut• 1983 – attack on the Marines sleeping in barracks at the
Beirut airport (241 killed)
• Also, suicide attacks typically get more media coverage; more “strategic communications” effect
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
- Lebanon - Kuwait - Sri Lanka
Trends: 1980s
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
- Israel - India - Pakistan - Yemen - Algeria - Chechnya - Kenya - Tanzania - Panama - Argentina - Croatia - Australia - Turkey - Russia - Morocco - Indonesia - Saudi Arabia - Afghanistan - Indonesia - Spain - U.K. - U.S.
Trends: 1990-2005
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
81 9199
163
0
40
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240
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Suicide Attacks Worldwide : 2001 -- 2005
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Suicide Terrorism: Why?Suicide Terrorism: Why?
Because it works . . . Because it works . . .
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon23 October 1983
• 241 Dead• 105 Injured
“We couldn’t stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines.”
-- Ronald Reagan, An American Life
“We couldn’t stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines.”
-- Ronald Reagan, An American Life
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Why Are Suicide Attacks Effective?• Suicide attacks work because they have a different
structure• With suicide terrorism model the weakerweaker acts as coerceracts as coercer
and the stronger actor is the target• Key difference
– Target of suicide campaign cannot easily adjust to minimize future damage
Baghdad -- 14 Oct 03Baghdad -- 14 Oct 03Baghdad -- 14 Oct 03Baghdad -- 14 Oct 03
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Questions?
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Counterterrorism Strategy Post-9/11
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
2. MIDLIFE (formerly DIME) CT Approach
Question: Once we understand the threat, how do we address it?
Answer: We employ all the instruments of national power available to us.
• Military• Intelligence• Diplomacy• Legal• Information• Financial• Economic
Question: Once we understand the threat, how do we address it?
Answer: We employ all the instruments of national power available to us.
• Military• Intelligence• Diplomacy• Legal• Information• Financial• Economic
• Case studies of groups and
events help us learn about
each of these dimensions
• Case studies of groups and
events help us learn about
each of these dimensions
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Intelligence: Learn from our own mistakes• We assumed simultaneous 9/11 attacks in U.S. were
beyond the capabilities of terrorists• Overestimated the significance of past successes & the
terrorists’ own incompetence• Attention was focused exclusively on opposite ends of
the terrorist technological spectrum• Believed terrorists were still
interested in publicity and not killing
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Elements of the National CT Strategy
4 D’s:• Defeat terrorist organizations of a
global reach• Deny terrorists the sponsorship,
support, and sanctuary they need to survive
• Diminish the underlying conditions that promote the despair and destructive visions of political change that lead people to embrace terrorism
• Defend against terrorist attacks on the U.S., our citizens and our interests around the world
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Coordination Levels
ALLIESALLIES Coalition
Interagency
Joint
ArmyCombined
Arms
Army Navy Air Force Marines
OTHERAGENCIES
DOD DOS CIA
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
National Counterterrorism Center
• NCTC currently has assignees (USG staff) from: • Federal Bureau of Investigation
• Department of Defense• Central Intelligence Agency• Department of Homeland Security• Department of State • Others – DOE, NRC, HHS, USDA, USCHP
• Assignees to NCTC retain authorities of parent entities
• In NCTC, key organizations involved in the fight against terrorism are collectively fulfilling shared responsibilities
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
In NCTC, key organizations involved in the fight against terrorism are collectively fulfilling shared responsibilities
Terrorism Information Access and Integration
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
• Beyond implementing Center responsibilities, the greater goal is facilitating a counterterrorism “system” as part of a greater U.S. Government (USG) system-of-systems
• All USG elements need not be centralized; however, a distributed but integrated framework must be consciously agreed upon and orchestrated• Roles and responsibilities of USG CT elements must be as unambiguous and straightforward as possible; intentional rather than haphazard redundancy
Toward a Counterterrorism “System”
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.Director of Terrorism Studies
Questions?
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