c ombating t errorism c enter at west point wednesday 4 october: film: inside 9/11 (e hour: all...
Post on 26-Mar-2015
214 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
• Wednesday 4 October: Film: Inside 9/11 (E hour: All sections meet in TH348)
• Friday 6 October: Book Review due
• Tuesday 10 October:WPR– Comprehensive– Study lesson objectives, assigned readings, etc
• DC Trip Finalists – see list
SS474: Terrorism and Counterterrorism
Lesson 8: AQ Pre-9/11
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon23 October 1983
• 241 Dead• 105 Injured
“We couldn’t stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines.”
-- Ronald Reagan, An American Life
“We couldn’t stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines.”
-- Ronald Reagan, An American Life
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
New York, World Trade CenterFebruary 26, 19936 Dead, 1,042 Injured
Oklahoma CityMurrah Federal Building,
19 April 1995168 Dead, 490 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
Matsumoto, JapanMarch, 19947 Dead, 34 Injured
Sarin gas kills by paralyzing muscles so that a person cannot breathe.
Sarin enters the body by inhalation, ingestion, and through the eyes and skin.
Symptoms begin with watery eyes, drooling, and excessive sweating, and then rapidly progress to difficulty in breathing, dimness of vision, nausea, vomiting, twitching, and headache.
Ultimately the victim will become comatose and suffocate as a consequence of convulsive spasms.
Tokyo, JapanTeito Rapid Transit Authority (Subway System) March 20, 199512 Dead, 5,000 Injured
Aum Shinrikyo and the Sarin Gas AttacksJapan, 1994 & 1995
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
Khobar Towers - Dhahran, Saudi Arabia 25 June 1996
• 19 Dead
• 240 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
American Embassy Bombings, Kenya and TanzaniaAugust 1998 200 Americans, Kenyans, and Tanzanians deadOver 5,000 injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
1999 LAX Attack Plan
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
The Strategy of Terrorism
• Increasing interest in “soft targets” (economically strategic impact, and less protected) such as:
– pubs in Northern Ireland & London UK– open markets & cafes in Israel– international airport, Sri Lanka– bus in Manila, the Philippines– shopping mall in southern Philippines– nightclub in Bali, Indonesia– banks in Istanbul, Turkey– hotel in Jakarta, Indonesia– nightclub in Berlin, Germany
– and, of course . . .
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
New York City & Washington, DCSeptember 11, 2001
2,973 Dead, and 10,000+ Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
Modern Trends in Global Terrorism
• More violent attacks (increasing lethality)• Increasing use of suicide bombers
(the ultimate smart bomb)
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
Karachi, PakistanMay 8, 2002 June 14, 2002
12 Dead50 Injured
14 Dead, including11 French engineers
Bus attackAttack on U.S. Consulate
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
Bali, IndonesiaOctober 12, 2002 202 Dead
350 Injured
Citizens from 21 countries, mostly Western tourists, were killed in the blasts
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
Casablanca, MoroccoMay 17, 2003
44 Dead107 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
Jakarta, IndonesiaAugust 5, 2003
12 Dead60 Injured
J.W. Marriott Hotel, Jakarta
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
Riyadh, Saudi ArabiaNovember 8, 2003 April 21, 2004
4 Dead148 Injured
3 simultaneous suicide car bomb attacks on Al-Muhaya apartment complex
Attack on Security Services Headquarters
17 Dead122 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
Istanbul, TurkeyNovember 20, 2003
27 Dead400 Injured
Primary Targets: British consulate and the HSBC bank headquarters
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
Madrid, SpainMarch 11, 2004
191 Dead1,035 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
Jakarta, IndonesiaSeptember 9, 2004
9 Dead173 Injured
Australian Embassy was primary target
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
London, UKJuly 7, 2005
54 Dead716 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
Why?
What’s the history, strategy, etc. of the modern terrorism threat?
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
AQ Pre-9/11• What is al Qaeda’s strategy?
What are their strategic objectives?
• 1996 fatwa– declaration of war, warned of presence of American and
British “Crusader forces” • Saudi Arabia would become a beach head to impose a new
imperialism on the region to obtain its oil
– “It is no secret that warding off the American enemy is the top duty after faith and nothing should take priority over it”
– All ulema are “unanimous that it is an individual duty to fight an invading enemy”
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
• 1998 Fatwa – shift from the near enemy to the far enemy
• Bin Laden’s critical contribution = re-directing energies of Jihadists toward attacking the U.S. anywhere
• AQ and bin Laden do not want to be global leader of terrorists; rather, provide a spark, motivator, bring them under ideological umbrella
AQ Pre-9/11
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
AQ Pre-9/11Appreciating the Strategic Story:
– Al Qaeda “proper" desires large attacks on US– Al Qaeda is focused on US economy– What about other groups & their objectives?– US interests abroad remain vulnerable– We are dealing with a strategic enemy– Perceptions matter– Long-view of the story is critical:
“Connecting the dots” vs. “Knowing the story
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
ICE: AQ Timeline
In Groups of 4:
• Construct a timeline of key events leading up to 9/11
• Demonstrate how early terrorist groups or events have some relation to the events of 9/11
• Try to go as far back as 1968
2004 1968
?
1995
AumShinrikyo(Tokyo)
1986
Pan Am(Tel Aviv)
1994
Air France#8969
1996
bin LadenFatwa
1998bin Laden
Fatwa2000
USS Cole
1999 Millennium
PlotsLAX, Jordan
1993
WTCBombing
Landmark Plot
1st attack on U.S. soil?
KSM is uncle of Yousef
Importantconceptualshift from
“near enemy”to “far enemy”
3/11Madrid
2001
9/11
Focused U.S. security policy towards
non-state actors andWMD concerns
YousefKSM
Islamic Terrorism Timeline: A Strategic View
Embassybombings
Khobar Towers
1983
BeirutEmbassy& MarineBarracks
lessonslearned?
1985
Somaliapaper tiger?
7/7London
OplanBojinka
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
• Three capabilities critical to 9/11 still exist – Ability to identify and exploit a key gap in opponents’ defenses– Effective and clever use of deception and denial– Suicide attacks employed to ensure operation’s success
• Theoretically, a vast reservoir of trained recruits remains available for activation/mobilization– Tens of thousands jihadists trained in past decade– Means and methods of terrorism widely disseminated
AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats
• Method of attack– Depends on which “Al Qaeda” you are dealing with – Al Qaeda prefers coordinated attacks in waves– Well-planned with strong reconnaissance efforts
• Detailed planning efforts• Rehearsals• Strong operational security
Most likely means• High yield explosives• Vehicle delivery
Most difficult• Unconventional weapons
Con
sequ
ence
Probability
VBIEDWMD
IED
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point
AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats
Al Qaeda of today is not the Al Qaeda of yesterday– Robust organization – Now global social movement– Strong command and control – Now loose direction– Operational freedom – Now focused on operational
security– Dangerous organization – Now still extremely
dangerous
Questions??
top related