camx-psat source apportionment modeling results

CAMx-PSATSource Apportionment

Modeling Results

Stationary Sources Joint Forum Meeting

November 14, 2006

Tempe, AZ

Source Apportionment Technique

• CAMx air quality model with PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT)

• Tracks sources of sulfate and nitrate• PSAT completed for 2 cases:

– Plan 2002c– Base 2018b

18 Source Regions on a 36 km Grid

- 2 7 3 6 - 2 4 1 2 - 2 0 8 8 - 1 7 6 4 - 1 4 4 0 - 1 1 1 6 - 7 9 2 - 4 6 8 - 1 4 4 1 8 0 5 0 4 8 2 8 1 1 5 2 1 4 7 6 1 8 0 0 2 1 2 4 2 4 4 8- 2 0 8 8

- 1 8 7 2

- 1 6 5 6

- 1 4 4 0

- 1 2 2 4

- 1 0 0 8

- 7 9 2

- 5 7 6

- 3 6 0

- 1 4 4

7 2

2 8 8

5 0 4

7 2 0

9 3 6

1 1 5 2

1 3 6 8

1 5 8 4

1 8 0 0

26

9

1 2

4

58

1 3

1 13

1 7

1 5

1 5

1 6

1 6

1 6

1 8 1 8

1 4

1 7

1 4

1 0

Eight Source Categories

• Examples of PSAT “sources”:– MV_CO = mobile sources in Colorado– PT_CE = point sorces in CENRAP– BCON = transport from modeling domain boundaries (derived from

GEOS-CHEM)

ICON Initial conditions

BCON Boundary conditions

PT Point sources

MV Mobile sources

ANF WRAP anthropogenic fires

Natural WRAP natural fires and biogenics

NWF Elevated fires in other RPOs

AR All other sources (non-elevated fires in other RPOs, area sources, offshore, oil & gas area sources, etc.)

Contribution of Colorado Mobile Sourcesto January 2002 Average NO3 Concentration

Contribution of Colorado Mobile Sourcesto January 2018 Average NO3 Concentration

Percent Contribution of WRAP Point Sourcesto NO3 at IMPROVE Sites on Worst Visibility Days (2018)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

AGTI1

BAND1

BRCA1

CABI1

CHIR1

CORI1

DEVA1

FOPE1

GLAC1

GRSA1

HOOV1

JARB1

KALM1

LOST1

MOHO1

MOZI1

NOCH1

PEFO1

PORE1

RAFA1

SACR1

SAGU1

SAWT1

SNPA1

SULA1

THSI1

ULBE1

WHPA1

YELL2

IMPROVE Monitoring Sites

Pe

rce

nt

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n

Top 12 Class I AreasMt. Zirkel, COMesa Verde, COCanyonlands, UTWeminuche, COCapitol Reef, UTRocky Mountain, COZion, UTSaguaro, AZSycamore Canyon, AZBandelier, NMGreat Sand Dunes, COPetrified Forest, AZ

Percent Contribution of WRAP Point Sourcesto SO4 at IMPROVE Sites on Worst Visibility Days (2018)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

AGTI1

BAND1

BRCA1

CABI1

CHIR1

CORI1

DEVA1

FOPE1

GLAC1

GRSA1

HOOV1

JARB1

KALM1

LOST1

MOHO1

MOZI1

NOCH1

PEFO1

PORE1

RAFA1

SACR1

SAGU1

SAWT1

SNPA1

SULA1

THSI1

ULBE1

WHPA1

YELL2

IMPROVE Monitoring Sites

Pe

rce

nt

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n

Columbia River Gorge

Top 12 Class I AreasMt. Zirkel, CORocky Mountain, COBridger, WYMesa Verde, COPetrified Forest, AZWeminuche, COBandelier, NMWind Cave, SDGreat Sand Dunes, COCanyonlands, UTNorth Cascades, WATheodore Roosevelt, ND

Percent Contribution of All Sourcesto SO4 at IMPROVE Sites on Worst Visibility Days (2018)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

AGTI1

BAND1

BRCA1

CABI1

CHIR1

CORI1

DEVA1

FOPE1

GLAC1

GRSA1

HOOV1

JARB1

KALM1

LOST1

MOHO1

MOZI1

NOCH1

PEFO1

PORE1

RAFA1

SACR1

SAGU1

SAWT1

SNPA1

SULA1

THSI1

ULBE1

WHPA1

YELL2

IMPROVE Monitoring Sites

Pe

rce

nt

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n

WRAP PT WRAP Other Antrho WRAP Natural Canada Mexico

CENRAP East US Pacific Ocean Initial Boundary

Contribution of Boundary Conditions to August 2018Average SO4 Concentration

Contribution of Canada Point Sources to August 2018Average SO4 Concentration

Contribution of CENRAP Point Sources to August 2018Average SO4 Concentration

Contribution of Mexico Point Sources to August 2018Average SO4 Concentration

Contribution of Pacific Ocean Sources to August 2018Average SO4 Concentration

Contribution of Colorado Point Sources to August 2018Average SO4 Concentration

Contribution of Wyoming Point Sources to August 2018Average SO4 Concentration

Percent Contribution of WRAP Point Sources to SO4from All US Anthro Sources at IMPROVE Sites on Worst Visibility Days (2018)

(All sources except WRAP Natural, Canada, Mexico, Pacific, and Boundary)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

AGTI1

BAND1

BRCA1

CABI1

CHIR1

CORI1

DEVA1

FOPE1

GLAC1

GRSA1

HOOV1

JARB1

KALM1

LOST1

MOHO1

MOZI1

NOCH1

PEFO1

PORE1

RAFA1

SACR1

SAGU1

SAWT1

SNPA1

SULA1

THSI1

ULBE1

WHPA1

YELL2

IMPROVE Monitoring Sites

Pe

rce

nt

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n

Summary

• WRAP point sources are a significant contributor to SO4 and NO3 at many Class I areas

• However, reasonable progress towards meeting natural conditions, especially beyond 2018, will require additional strategies.

For More Information

• Modeling results available at:– WRAP Technical Support System

• http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/

– WRAP Regional Modeling Center• http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/rmc/