cards against the future: generating possibilities instead of predictions

Cards Against the Future Generating Possibilities Instead of Predictions

Emily Empel I @localrat I #NerdNite

Traditional stores will have the same analytic

intelligence as online.

http://www.businessinsider.com/predictions-for-the-future-of-retail-2014-1#ixzz2vqPQsgno

Duh.

The spread of the Internet will enhance

global connectivity, fostering more positive

relationships among societies.

http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/03/11/digital-life-in-2025/

Egypt?

Syria?

Ukraine?

By 2017, as many as 35 percent of

government shared-service organizations

will be managed by private sector

companies.

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2638115

So what?

We value predictions and certainty when

planning for the future.

But, what about

the weird?

By 2040, nonbiological intelligence will be

billions of times more capable than

biological intelligence.

Ray Kurzweil

WTF?

Let’s play in the future according to a new

set of rules.

The future is going to be weird. Explore ideas you don’t agree with; pay

attention to the immeasurable fringe.

Time

Awareness

Emerging

Event

Trend

Mainstream

Source: Maree Conway, Thinking Futures (adapted from Graham Molitor)

The future is a mash up of the present.

Take an outside-in approach to change and

intellectually “occupy” the world.

Organizational

Focus

Business Environment

External Forces

Society

Technology

Environment

Economy

Politics

The future is not predictable. Embrace uncertainty; think beyond the

“beyond”.

Time

Awareness

Source: Maree Conway, Thinking Futures (adapted from Graham Molitor)

Horizon 1

Horizon 2

There is no one future.. Generate multiple scenarios when thinking

about the future.

Source: Thinking Futures