caribbean disaster risk management & climate change adaptation: data to decision making workshop

Caribbean Disaster Risk Management & Climate Change Adaptation:

Data to Decision Making Workshop

Average Annual Losses as a % of GDP Source: Germanwatch, 2012

A Region at Risk

Losses from disasters are fiscal shocks, which often result in budgetary deficits & increased debt

Belize - 1961

Dominica - 1979

St Lucia - 1980

Jamaica - 1988

AB - 1995 Dominica - 1995

St. Kitts & Nevis - 1995

St. Kitts & Nevis - 1998

Grenada - 2004

Guyana - 2005

St Lucia - 2010

0%

100%

200%

Select Damages from Disasters as a % of GDP

Hurricanes:David & Freder-

ick

Hurricane:Allen

Hurricane:Hattie

Hurricane:Luis

Hurricane:Georges

Hurricane:Ivan

Flood Hurricane:Tomas

Hurricanes:Luis & Mar-

ilyn Hurricane:Luis

Hurricane:Gilbert

Data to Decision Making

NHS-0144-2DM-4N

Problem Definition

Decision Making

Visualization & Interpretation

Data Need Identification

& Data Development (Field Collection)

Data/Risk Analysis

Hazard Vulnerability FunctionsExposure

Risk Analysis is Data Intensive

Risk Analysis Output

Challenges Persist

• Not enough data to carry out relevant analysis

• Existing data not readily available

• Numerous data format

• Poor or questionable data quality

• Scale of the data not sufficient

• Metadata non-existent or scant

• Lack of a data sharing mechanism

• Lack of capacity to generate and/or interpret risk analysis

Building Capacity to Perform the Data to

Decision MakingContinuum

Open Data for Resilience

The Open Data for Resilience Initiative (OpenDRI) is a global partnership that aims to encourage and facilitate the sharing and use of climate and disaster data to enable more effective decision-making by providing the rationale, technical assistance, and tools for data sharing.

Climate ChangeAdaptation

Immediate damage assessment

Scenario analysis for emergency

preparednessInfrastructure Design

Territorial planning Visualization of hazard and risk

Data/Risk Analysis

Set of Tools to Assist Decision Making

Seismic hazard map Landslides hazard map Flood hazard map

Land Use Planning and Zoning

DAY

Scenario Analysis for Emergency Preparedness - # of injured

NIGHT

Specifications for Infrastructure Design

Stru

ctur

al

Mea

sure

s

Non-Structural Measures

The Caribbean Cannot Build its’ Way Out of Risk

Immediate Damage Estimation

Damage Distribution Calculation

Surface Response Spatial

Distribution

Physical damage

Human losses

• Working with governments in the OECS

• Complementing existing efforts

• Building partnerships at a global level and with regional institutions like the CCRIF & UWI

• Making the case for open data

• Participatory technical assistance

• Free open source software & tools

• Community of Practitioners

Working Together

A Global, Country-Led Effort

Regional Institutions

UWI DRRC

Seismic RCGovernments

MDBs/Donors

Education

Capacity

Data Management

CDEMACCRIF

Communities

Climate Change Adaptation• The UNFCCC defines it as actions taken to help communities and

ecosystems cope with changing climate condition. • The IPCC describes it as adjustment in natural or human systems

in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.

• The UN Development Program calls it a process by which strategies to moderate, cope with and take advantage of the consequences of climatic events are enhanced, developed, and implemented.

• The UK Climate Impacts Program defines it as the process or outcome of a process that leads to a reduction in harm or risk of harm, or realization of benefits associated with climate variability and climate change.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

DRM DRR CCA

Community-based disaster risk management/reduction

Disaster PreparednessResponse capacity

Stockpiling Temporary shelters

Capacity development of national/local

authorities and communities

Livelihood protection

Life-saving measures

Early warning/early action

Urban Planning• Construction

norms

• Socio-economic stabilization

• Livelihoods

Income diversification

Greening the economy

Environmental protection

Natural resource management

Time

Adapted from: http://www.iom.int/Template/migration-climate-change-environmental-degradation/interactive-factsheet/index.html

Food security

Water security

Public health

Livelihoods

Coastal zones

Land

Adaptation Thematic Areas

Policy/planning

Capacity building/awareness

Information management

Investment decisions

Practices/resource management

Adaptation Processes

Adapted from UNDP

Adaptation Dimension

• Adaptive capacity – building the capacity for a population to adapt provides a foundation for anticipating and adjusting to climate conditions that will continue to change

• Adaptive action – adaptive capacity must be applied to specific decisions and actions to directly reduce or manage the biophysical impact to CC or actions may address non-climatic factors contributing to vulnerability

• Sustained development – successful sustainable development in spite of continuing changes posed by climate change

The definition of EBA from the Convention on Biological Diversity :• “Ecosystem-based adaptation may be described as the use of ecosystem management

activities to support societal adaptation. Ecosystem-based adaptation identifies and implements a range of strategies for the management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems to provide services that enable people to adapt to the impacts of climate change. It aims to increase the resilience and reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems and people in the face of climate change. Ecosystem-based adaptation is most appropriately integrated into broader adaptation and development strategies”

Definition

Broadening the climate adaptation toolkit to include protecting and restoring natural resources to help people

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) is a viable and cost effective way to reduce the vulnerability of human communities to climate change impacts and ensure the sustainability of our limited natural resources

Hypothesis

Source: CBD, second ad hoc technical expert group on biodiversity and climate change, second meeting, Helsinki 18-22 April 2009; Document: UNEP/CBD/AHTEG/BD-CC-2/2/6, 27 May 2009

In the context of TNC’s work, this means:• EBA is the protection, sustainable management and restoration of natural

systems to help human communities respond to climate change and to adapt to adverse impacts

• EBA is:– A critical part of overall climate adaptation and climate-ready development strategies

that include a suite of climate change adaptation responses, typically involving multiple sectors

– A practical example of the benefits of conservation and restoration for human communities in the face of climate change

– An opportunity to align conservation objectives with development objectives• EBA is not:

– Simply an attempt to “climate proof” biodiversity in our sites or build climate resilience into conservation planning

– A repackaging of our existing work to be more appealing to funders

EBA projects must:

1. be implemented in a climate change-vulnerable place with socio-economically vulnerable communities and biologically significant ecosystems

2. address and offer solutions to specific human vulnerabilities to climate change

3. engage key communities, decision-makers, stakeholders

• Coasts present a stark intersection of human needs and climate change effects

• Coastal adaptation is more than one third of the total adaptation cost(1)

• Coastal ecosystems include marshes, mangroves, coral and bivalve reefs, seagrasses, barrier islands and dunes which provide multiple and essential benefits to communities and have already been seriously lost and degraded. This measurably affects benefits to humans and the ability of these systems to help humans adapt

– Both the impacts of climate change and potential responses to them have the potential for further degrading these systems and reducing or eliminating essential services to vulnerable human communities

• In the Caribbean, flooding is of particular concern because a majority of people reside within a narrow coastal strip. A significant amount of tourism and fishing also occurs along this same strip.

Source: (1) “The Costs to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change,” World Bank Aug 2010; (2) “Convenient Solutions to an Inconvenient Truth: Ecosystem-based Approaches to Climate Change.” Environment Department, The World Bank, June 2009; America’s Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change, National Research Council

Coastal and Marine EBA

Mainstreaming of Coastal EBA• Enhance the understanding of and capacity to implement EBA

through building the scientific and economic foundation, decision support tools and approaches and policy guidelines for EBA

• Execute projects like “At the Water’s Edge”

• Assist local communities with EBA by providing EBA guidelines and best practices documentation and outreach

• Increase awareness and influence policy and public funding to incorporate EBA into policies and standards

• Engage the hazard mitigation community (FEMA, insurance agencies, etc.) to use EBA approaches to jointly achieve hazard mitigation and conservation objectives

Grey Infrastructure• Seawall• Revetments

Coastal Defense

Spectrum of Adaptive Action

Ecologically Active (Grey) Infrastructure

http://www.econcretetech.com/

Grey Infrastructure• Seawall• Revetments

Ecologically ActiveInfrastructure (Grey/Green Infrastructure)

Coastal Defense

Spectrum of Adaptive Action

http://inhabitat.com/moma-exhibit-offers-real-solutions-to-nyc-rising-tides/

http://www.rebuildbydesign.org/projects/

Turenscape

Turenscape

Grey Infrastructure• Seawall• Revetments

Ecologically ActiveInfrastructure (Grey/Green Infrastructure)

Eco engineering

Coastal Defense

Multiuse Design• Ecosystem services

• Coastal defense• Recreation• Providing food

• Climate adaptive coastal management• DRM/DRR

Green Infrastructure• Vast mangrove tracts• Barrier reef• Large dune systems• Littoral forest – coral

reef complex - beach

Spectrum of Adaptive Action

Com

mun

ity V

ulne

rabi

lity

Low

Hig

h

Ecosystem base adaptation

Adaptation Decisions Being Made

Nationally• Integrated Coastal Zone Management/National

Adaptation Programmes of Action• What is the potential loss and where?• How much loss can be averted and with what actions?• Where can adaptation actions be placed?Locally• How adaptation sites are designed?• How the community capacity and awareness is

increased?

Role of Spatial Data

• Underpins and facilitates adaptation work• Outcome/output is not a GIS product

• Multi-sector/themed layers needed– Assess risk and vulnerability– Raise awareness– Site EBA locations

• Communicates issues of scale• Mapping ecosystem services