cattle outlook (title)
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Ron Plain
April 22, 2015
Cattle Outlook (title)
Retail Choice Beef Prices, Monthly
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Cents per Pound
Source: USDA/ERS
10 monthly records in 2014
U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
25019
45
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
f
Pounds
Source: USDA/ERS
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Million Head
2014: 33.9 million head, up 0.5%
First increase since 1995
Source: USDA/NASS
U. S. Calf Crop, 1945-2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Percent
Imports Exports
U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Production, monthly
Source: USDA/ERS
Dollar Exchange Rate
USDA expects 2015 meat exports to be down 6% and meat imports to be up 4% compared to 2014.
C-S-0804/17/15
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
2014 cattle slaughter was down 6.9%2015 year-to-date is down 6.0%
C-S-1804/17/15
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
2014 steer dressed weight was up 1.0%2015 year-to-date weight is up 1.6%
C-S-1404/17/15
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
2014 cow slaughter was down 13.8%2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%
C-S-1304/17/15
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
2014 heifer slaughter was down 7.9%2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%
Large U.S. Feedlots, Monthly
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Head
2012
2013
2014
2015
Mar 1 cattle on feed: down 0.5%
Cattle on Feed
04/13/15
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Choice Steer Breakeven PriceS. Plains Cattle Feedlots, Monthly
75
95
115
135
155
175
195
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$ Per Cwt.
Breakeven Projected Breakeven
Source: LMIC
Cost of Gain is roughly $73/cwt.
U.S. Commercial Beef ProductionMillion Pounds
*forecast
2013 2014 2015
Qtr 1 6,172 5,868 5,660
Qtr 2 6,516 6,183 6,240*
Qtr 3 6,609 6,178 6,210*
Qtr 4 6,423 6,023 6,100*
Year 25,720 24,252 24,210*
----- % Change -----
2013-14 2014-15.
- 4.9% - 3.5%.
- 5.1% +0.9%.
- 6.4% +0.5%.
- 6.2% +1.3%.
- 5.7% - 0.2%
5 Area Slaughter Steer PricesChoice Steers Per Live Hundredweight
2012 2013 2014 2015
Qtr 1 $125.29 $125.52 $146.34 $162.43
Qtr 2 $121.91 $124.95 $147.82 $162-168*
Qtr 3 $119.69 $122.30 $158.49 $157-169*
Qtr 4 $125.54 $130.77 $165.60 $157-171*
Year $122.86 $125.89 $154.56 $160-167*
*forecast
Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price,Monthly Average 2000-2015
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan
00
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Jan
16
Dollars per Cwt.
Cash Futures
OKC 750-800# Feeder Steer Price,Monthly Average 2000-2015
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
Jan
00
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Jan
16
Dollars per Cwt.
Cash Futures
Estimated Average Cow Calf ReturnsReturns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
$ Per Cow
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
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