ccpca mineart

Sea Level Rise

Local Level Project ImplementationsCCPCA Conference

San Jose State University

October 11, 2013

Projects Incorporating SLR

•Sea Level Rise• Port of San Francisco – SLR adaptation• Port of Oakland – Levee raise• Balboa Island Seawalls

•SLR and Climate Change • Infrastructure Improvements• Risk Analysis

Sea Level Rise Adaptation Ports of San Francisco and Oakland

•Sea Level Rise Analysis,•Coastal Inundation Study, •Locate vulnerable areas, and •Mitigation alternative analysis with recommendations

Coastal Inundation

•100-year event• Existing• 2050, +15 inches• 2100, +55 inches

•110 years of tidal data•Ocean swell, wind waves and fresh water inflows not modified for climate change

100-Year Water Level Results

Adaptation

• Port of Oakland raised levees +1 foot + foundation• Port of San Francisco identified existing and future sources of flooding

Balboa Seawalls

Presentation Title

Opt 1: Waterside seawall replacement options: Least invasive and expensive

Opt 2: Landside options: Greatest impact to properties, and Most expensive

100yr Incremental Approach

8

What and When to Include Climate Change?

Scenario Name CO2 Increase Global Climate Model UsedSRESa2 – gfdl CO2 emissions continue to accelerate National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

(NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (gfdl)

SRESb1 – gfdl The rate of emissions growth moderates and the emission rates themselves eventually decrease

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (gfdl)

SRESa2 – ncar CO2 emissions continue to accelerate Parallel Climate Model (pcm), by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (ncar)

SRESb1 – ncar The rate of emissions growth moderates and the emission rates themselves eventually decrease

Parallel Climate Model (pcm), by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (ncar)

When – Water levels are affected by freshwater inflowWhat - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIPS3)

16 different Global Climate Models (GCMs), 3 different CO2 emission scenarios and several different initial conditions for a total of 112 different projections

Assumption

The future change in frequency of a given current return period event based on climate change model results will produce the same change in frequency for existing current return period

Example100-year flood frequency from the 1951–2000 flood frequency data has a 0.022 (45 year) flood frequency in the year 2050 (2026–2075 flood frequency curve)

Combine SLR and Climate Change (Delta)

• Sea Level Rise in North Bay and Delta needs to be adjusted from Ocean Value• Hydraulic relationships, Hydrodynamic models

• Flows and Tides are Independent• Flood occurs when storm and high

tides coincide • Monte Carlo

Change in Flood Frequency at Rio Vista

Effect of Climate Change and SLR

Return Period ( years)

Excedance Probability

Increase in Water Level (feet)

2050 2100

500 0.002 3.97 7.36

200 0.005 3.48 6.43

100 0.01 3.19 5.93

75 0.013 2.95 5.67

50 0.02 2.48 5.07

25 0.04 2.14 3.96

20 0.05 2.04 3.41

10 0.1 1.91 2.86

5 0.2 1.73 2.56

2 0.5 1.53 2.06

1.0 1.0 1.31 1.66

Questions???

Wave Runup