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CDM reforestation activities under Kyoto Protocol, implemented on coca cultivation degraded lands of
Peruvian Amazon: risk or opportunity ?
MALTA 21/10/2011 Chiara A.R. Corradi ccorradi@unitus.it
It is provided an assessment of the feasibility and the convenience of land use change from degraded coca cultivation fields (Erythroxylum coca) and subsistence crops into sustainable agroforestry and forestry systems eligible under AR CDM, for the generation of carbon credits.
It is quantified the carbon sink gained by reforestation activities in the
Peruvian Amazon, considering a 20-year time horizon and the production of temporary carbon credits
An examination of the socio-economic profitability of CDM agroforestry
systems as new sustainable business related to the production of woody, non-woody products and the sharing of carbon credits on areas where coca cultivation is common (although not exclusive) is done.
The questions : could AR CDM play a role in the efforts of illicit crop
eradication? If so, which solution are more suitable among the proposed one?
MALTA 21/10/2011
Activities in situ
1-Participative approach of local farmers
Voluntary participation and reserach of land suitable to the project according to the national definition of forest
MALTA 21/10/2011
2- Local institutions
Università del la Selva: Supporto tecnico per campionamenti: laboratori, supporto studenti etc..
Cooperativa produttori di caffè
“la Divisoria”
Local nurserie ECOselva
University and cooperatives
MALTA 21/10/2011
3- Site selection
1. General description (location, coordinates, surveyors)
2. Land tenure status (public, private, owner’s name, ecc)
3. Present Land Use (crops, grazing land, forest, unproductive,…)
4. Additionality (information on other funded projects)
5. Present natural vegetation cover (high, pecent of cover)
6. Soil description
7. Landform description
8. Current human pressure
MALTA 21/10/2011
NOM_owner location
H
A
USO_1
986 USO_1989 USO_1999 USO_2004 USO_2007
Bravo Condezo
Ignacio Daniel Alomias Robles 6 Cafe
Café
Abandonad
o Pasto Pasto Pasto
Carrillo Sanchez
Gamaniel Daniel Alomias Robles 1 Pasto Pasto Coca Coca Coca
Carlos Duran Victor Daniel Alomias Robles 1 Purma Coca Coca Coca Coca
Murga Espinoza
Guilde Daniel Alomias Robles 1 Coca Coca Coca Coca Coca
Rivera Severo Limo Hermilio Valdizan 1 Pasto Pasto Pasto Pasto Pasto
Polo de Villena Niere
Felipa Hermilio Valdizan 1 Purma Pasto Pasto Pasto Pasto
Polo de Villena Niere
Felipa Hermilio Valdizan 1 Purma Pasto Pasto Pasto Pasto
Juanante Sabino Jose
AntonIO Daniel Alomias Robles 1 Cafe
Cafe
abandonad
o Purma Shapumba shapumba
Tolentino Simon
Aquilino Hermilio Valdizan 3 Purma Purma Maiz Maiz Maiz
Cjumo Vargas
Rosalio Daniel Alomias Robles 1 Purma Shapumba Shapumba Coca Coca
Cjumo Vargas
Rosalio Daniel Alomias Robles 1 Coca Shapumba Shapumba Shapumba Shapumba
Nazario Geronimo
Santiago Daniel Alomias Robles 1 Purma Platano
Purma/Intervenido,Purma
joven muy poco Papaya Pasto
Nazario Geronimo
Santiago Daniel Alomias Robles 1 Purma Platano
Purma/Intervenido, Purma
muy poco Papaya Pasto
Piñan Vargas Elias Daniel Alomias Robles 2 Platano Papaya Papaya Platano Platano
Demonstration of Land elegibility: historical and current data
MALTA 21/10/2011
Methodology AR-AMS0001: evolution Title Simplified baseline and monitoring methodologies for small-scale A/R CDM project activities implemented on
grasslands or croplands with limited displacement of pre-project activities
Version number 6
Scale Small scale
Status Active
Valid from 17 Sep 10 onwards
Sectoral scope(s) 14
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Previous Versions
• Title: Simplified baseline and monitoring methodologies for small-scale afforestation and reforestation project
activities under the clean development mechanism implemented on grasslands or croplands
Version number 5
Validity Valid from 17 Oct 08 to 16 Sep 10
Requests for registration can be submitted until 17 Mar 2012 23:59:59 GMT
•Title: Simplified baseline and monitoring methodologies for small-scale afforestation and reforestation project
activities under the clean development mechanism implemented on grasslands or croplands
Version number 4
Validity Valid from 10 Aug 07 to 16 Oct 08
MALTA 21/10/2011
Baseline scenario
Stratification according to land use/ land cover: - grazing lands, - coca fields and croplands, -degraded lands(shapumba and rabo de zorro)
• Satellite Images 1990-2000-2006 • Direct Intervews (about 200 families to get 300 ha
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Project scenario
agroforestry with cacao for flat areas
ESPECIE SÍMBOLO Nº
Linderos
Bolaina 100
Capirona
100
Caoba
31
Sombra
Permanent
e
Guaba 93
Shihuahu
co 31
Moena
Alcanfor 31
Agricola Cacao 1111
TOTAL 1504
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Carbon Flux calculation ASSUMPTIONS
The application of this methodology is based on two assumptions: -the baseline net GHG removals by sinks is assumed to be zero because in the long term it is expected a progressive degradation of the soil due to the overexploitation of lands with a decrease of the C stock in the soil and in the living biomass. The baseline carbon stocks in the carbons pools is constant at the level of the existing carbon stock measured at the start of the project activity, by using a conservative approach; - the leakage is also assumed to be zero, because it is expected that A/R CDM agroforestry system will provide at least the same good and services of the pre-project conditions, by an increase of the productivity of highly valuable products (coffea, cacao and wood).
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- C sinks from 5 pools, but SSC meth allows to calculate only LIVING BIOMASS
- Emissions generated by the project (CO2 e non-CO2)
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EX-ANTE calculation
The agroforestry and forestry systems
adopted have a carbon sequestration
capacity between 18,1 and 66,9 tCO2/ha/y,
according to the growth rate of the species
and the differentiated age of harvesting.
tree density Mean growth
rate
wood
density
tree above
ground
biomass
increment
total
biomass
increment
total carbon
increment
Total CO2
increment
Scientific name P/ha m3/tree/year (t/m3)
t
dm/tree/year t dm/ha/year C/ha/year CO2/ha/year
Guazuma crinita 100 0,0429 0,41 0,026 3,744 1,872 6,86
Calycophylum spruceanum 100 0,0053 0,76 0,006 0,858 0,429 1,57
Inga edulis 93 0,0160 0,51 2,173 1,086 3,98
Cedrela odorata 31 0,0347 0,42 0,022 0,961 0,481 1,76
Ocotea costulata 31 0,0620 0,46 0,043 1,883 0,942 3,45
Clarisia racemosa 31 0,0347 0,59 0,031 1,351 0,675 2,48
Coffea arabica 3333 0,004 0,002 0,01
TOTAL 3719 10,97 5,49 20,12
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GROSS GHG SEQUETRATION – BASELINE - LEAKAGE =
NET ATHROP. CO2 SINK OF THE PROJECT
-10000
5000
20000
35000
50000
65000
80000
95000
110000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
CO2 storage in the pre-project scenario ACTUAL NET GHG REMOVALS BY SINKS
NET ANTHROPOGENIC REMOVALS BY SINKS
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Wood biomass for domestic usei (pruning and programmed cuts)
Valuable wood at the end of rotation cycle
Coffea/cacao production
Annual crops (not acconuted in to KP estimetes)
Carbon Credit generation
RESULTS MALTA 21/10/2011
Socio-economic analysis
A socio-economical evaluation is based on the analysis of alternatives.
CDM agroforestry vs COCA crops
Other subsistence crops similarly cultivated do not provide real profit to the families, but only a regime of low quality food, therefore are not considered for this analysis. The cost-benefit analysis concerns 3 parallel assessments, each one evaluating a specific area of the sustainable development. •The economic sphere: comparison of costs and benefits of the components excluding environmental externalities and induced effects on the general economic system. Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit/Cost ratio (CB ratio) and internal rate of return (IRR) are calculated for each land use scheme •A social dimension is evaluated by comparing the different levels of employment produced by single alternatives; •A simple environmental analysis based on the evaluation of biodiversity and carbon stock, and a more qualitative examination of linked factors.
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The monetary value of alternatives
To corroborate in objective manner the comparison between pre-project coca cultivation practice (H0) with the project scenario alternatives under CDM activities, are here reported the
results of the monetary approach
Present value
of expenditures and
revenues
H0 discount rate 10%
COCA
Agroforestry Wood plantation
Cacao Coffea Forestry low terrace
Wood and non wood products $17.909,98 $24.493,98 $25.263,81 $47.696,70
Carbon sequestration 0 $425,98 $330,32 $444,93
Production costs
$8.971,99 $4.306,96 $4.725,01 $2.267,66
Public funds 0 $635,44 $727,65 $501,96
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If we analyze the revenues, the alternatives proposed by CDM project are more convenient that the coca cultivation since this crop is very much demanding of soil inputs to maintain an acceptable productivities of
leaves. Coca cultivation is also penalized by the fact that the carbon credits generated by the growth of plants (even thought they are limited) cannot be accounted
.
Investments analysis (discount rate 10%)
Indicator
H0 H1
Coca Agroforestry Wood plantation
Cacao Coffea Forestry low terrace
NPV $8.937,99 $19.352,5 $20.538,8 $45.429,0
CB ratio 1,99 4,49 4,34 21,03
IRR 270,9 64,64% 165,47% not calc.
The investment analysis shows that all the considered CDM alternatives are acceptable at financial level (NPV>0). Each one would have a very different capacity to generate profits, as shown by the indicator Cost/Benefit ratio, being the forestry system the more profitable one.
MALTA 21/10/2011
Social evaluation
The assessment of social development in the project area before CDM implementation (H0) and after CDM implementation (H1).
Days of work of generated by pre-project activities (H0) and by CDM alternatives (H1)
Alternatives
Total Yearly average
Absolute value H1-H0
Yearly average H1-H0
H0 Coca cultivation 1.383 0 69 0
H1
Agrof. Cacao 1.455 72 73 4
Agrof Coffea 1.871 488 94 24
Forestry low terrace 746 -638 37 -32
Dynamic flux of work (in absolute value) related to each alternative to coca cultivation. The more convenient solution in term of quantity of work deliverable is the coffea plantations (94
days of work per year), whilst the system which provides minor work employment is the forestry system (only 37 days of work). The other alternatives are comparable.
MALTA 21/10/2011
Environmental evaluation
All the CDM models implemented contribute to higher biodiversity: six indigenous
species each model against monoculture of coca.
The implementation of the A/R CDM project activities is able to interrupt the
persistent overexploitation of the deforested lands, rather than coca field which
are monospecific cultivation and causes soil desertification.
All the CDM alternative proposed are sustainable in the long term, and all three
proposed systems are being re-establishing the tree cover and the vertical
structure of the vegetation, as well as the potential growth for epiphytes and
lianas plants which will arise the local biodiversity, in a new ecosystem
equilibrium.
Forest canopies filter the solar radiation, the rainfall, the wind speed , and
facilitate the return of local flora and fauna able to live in the several niches of
the forest layers (return of birds, insects, micro and macro mammals). The
landscape will be slowly restored and risk of soil erosion minimized, too .
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Additionality of CDM project
Despite this socio economic analysis indicate that profits achievable by carbon credits are limited in comparison to other profits from fruit and wood, nevertheless the implemented CDM and the generation of tradable carbon credits provide the additionality required by Kyoto Protocol rules for a number of other non-financial aspects. Analysis of Environmental and Social barriers (LULUCF guidelines).
1 -Technological barriers:
The AR CDM project fund provide planting materials that otherwise would not be available in the project area due to the absence of local nurseries.
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2 - Barriers due to local ecological conditions (a)The overexploitation of soil due to migratory agriculture and coca cultivations generate the irreversible degradation of lands and impoverishment of the natural ecosystem. (b) The practice of slash-and-burning of existing vegetation which is cyclically repeated by the landowners (on average every 4 years) causes the irreversible loss of the tree cover and the substitution of forest ecosystems into impoverished and unproductive grasslands and croplands.
3- Barriers due to social conditions: lack of skilled and/or properly
trained labour force AR CDM project ensure long term benefits by the introduction of productive and sustainable agroforestry, under the assistance of United Nation support (UNODC expertise). Local communities would never be able to convert their (illegal) activities spontaneously because of fear of threats and lack of technical knowledge on models of alternative development. Farmers are trained directly in their fields by UNODC personnel.
MALTA 21/10/2011
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