center for education policy research | regional strategic data project meeting kentucky department...

Center for Education Policy Research |

Regional Strategic Data Project MeetingKentucky Department of Education

Fall 2014

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• Welcome and Introductions• Human Capital Diagnostic• College Going Diagnostic• Review of data for the Cooperative• Working Lunch• Next Steps

Agenda

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Who We Are

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Commissioner’s Delivery Unit (CDU)The mission of the CDU is to keep KDE focused on the strategic goals of the KY Board of Education.

– Strategy Team Work– Quarterly Assessments– Semi-Annual Stocktakes– Research and Analysis to Inform Strategies

Who We Are

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• Three year partnership with SDP• Share longitudinal findings concerning teacher

human capital trends at the state and regional levels in order to inform the state equitable distribution plan.

• Share longitudinal findings concerning students’ college-going trajectories at the state, regional and school levels to inform CSIPs/CDIPs

Today’s Purpose

Center for Education Policy Research |

SDP Human Capital DiagnosticKentucky Department of Education

Fall 2014

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MISSION Transform the use of data in

education to improve student achievement.

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The SDP Family

• 62 Partners• 125 Fellows• 73 Alumni

Services to State and Local Education Agencies

Fellowship Program

Training Services

Custom Research & Diagnostics

Software-driven Analytics

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RECRUITMENT

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• High-poverty schools and schools with low average test scores are more likely to hire new teachers.

• High-minority schools and schools located in cities are more likely to hire new teachers.

Key Findings

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91.6%

8.4%

ReturningTeachers

NewHires

Notes: Sample includes teachers with teacher job codes in traditional schools in the 2009-10 through 2011-12 school years,with 127,630 teacher years and 50,340 unique teachers. All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

Share of Teachers Who Are New Hires

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7.98.4*

7.9

9.4*

02

46

81

01

21

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Bottom 2nd 3rd Top *Significantly different from bottom quartile value, at the 95 percent confidence level.Notes: Sample includes teachers with teacher job codes in traditional schools in the 2009-10 through 2011-12 school years,with 127,630 teacher years and 50,340 unique teachers. All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

by School F/RPM QuartileShare of Teachers Who Are New Hires

Higher Poverty

15

10.4

7.8* 7.5* 7.4*

02

46

81

01

21

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Bottom 2nd 3rd Top *Significantly different from bottom quartile value, at the 95 percent confidence level.Notes: Sample includes teachers with teacher job codes in traditional schools in the 2009-10 through 2011-12 school years,with 104,798 teacher years and 41,787 unique teachers. All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

by School Math Standardized Test Score QuartileShare of Teachers Who Are New Hires in Elementary and Middle Schools

Lower Test Scores

16

6.67.1*

8.2*

10.7*

02

46

81

01

21

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Bottom 2nd 3rd Top *Significantly different from bottom quartile value, at the 95 percent confidence level.Notes: Sample includes teachers with teacher job codes in traditional schools in the 2009-10 through 2011-12 school years,with 127,630 teacher years and 50,340 unique teachers. All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

by School's Minority QuartileShare of Teachers Who Are New Hires

Higher % Minority

17

10.4

8.8*8.0*

7.4*

02

46

81

01

21

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City Suburb Town Rural *Significantly different from City value, at the 95 percent confidence level.Notes: Sample includes teachers with teacher job codes in traditional schools in the 2009-10 through 2011-12 school years,with 127,566 teacher years and 50,328 unique teachers. All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

by School's LocaleShare of Teachers Who Are New Hires

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7.8

9.6 9.8

6.9

9.8

5.8

8.8

6.3

9.1

02

46

81

01

21

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GRREC OVEC CKEC KEDC WKEC SESC NKCES KVEC JEFF CO Notes: Sample includes teachers with teacher job codes in traditional schools in the 2009-10 through 2011-12 school years,with 127,630 teacher years and 50,340 unique teachers. All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

by Educational CooperativeShare of Teachers Who Are New Hires

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PLACEMENT

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• Newly hired teachers are significantly more likely to be placed with students with lower incoming math scores, compared with other teachers.

• This is true in comparisons both across and within schools.

Key Findings

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-0.23*

-0.18*

-0.08*

-0.03

-.4

-.3

-.2

-.1

0.1

.2

Diff

ere

nce

in P

rior

Yea

r T

est S

core

s

Across Schools Within Schools

Middle Schools Elementary Schools

*Significantly different from zero, at the 95 percent confidence level.Notes: Sample includes traditional school teachers with teacher job codes and their students in grades 4 through 8 with prior year test scores in the2009-10 through 2011-12 school years, with 4,128 middle school teacher years, 308,918 middle school student years, 2,003 unique middle schoolteachers, 196,037 unique middle school students, 6,933 elementary school teacher years, 213,483 elementary school student years, 3,563 uniqueelementary school teachers, and 153,707 unique elementary school students. Test scores are normalized to have an average of zero and astandard deviation of one. All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

Difference in Average Prior Math Performanceof Students Assigned to Newly Hired Teachers

Compared to All Other Teachers

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DEVELOPMENT

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• Controlling for student characteristics, returning teachers have a larger impact on student test scores than newly hired teachers.

Key Findings

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0.0230.025*

0.101*0.101*

0.1

.2.3

.4

Diff

ere

nce

in T

each

er

Impa

ct

Math Reading

Middle Schools Elementary Schools

*Significantly different from zero, at the 95 percent confidence level.Notes: Sample includes traditional school teachers with teacher job codes and their students in grades 4 through 8 with prior year test scores in the2009-10 through 2010-11 school years, with 2,700 middle school math teacher years, 2,806 middle school reading teacher years,1,674 unique middle school math teachers, 1,793 unique middle school reading teachers, 4,613 elementary school math teacher years,5,427 elementary school reading teacher years, 2,961 unique elementary school math teachers, and 3,481 unique elementary school reading teachers.Test scores are normalized to have an average of zero and a standard deviation of one. All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

Teacher Impact of Returning TeachersCompared to First Year of Teaching in State

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0

.06

.08

.12 .12 .12 .12 .12.11 .11

0.0

5.1

.15

.2M

ath

Tea

che

r Im

pact

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+Year(s) of Teaching

Math Teacher Impact 95% Confidence Interval

Notes: Sample includes comprehensive and magnet school teachers in the 2006-07 through 2011-12 school years with teacher job codes and teacher impact estimates who are linked to 4th through 8th grade students, with 5,448 teacher years and 1,721 unique teachers. Teacher impactson student test scores are average within-teacher gains compared to novice teachers. All data are from Delaware Department of Education records.

Math Teacher Impact Compared to First Year of Teaching

In other agencies…

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EVALUATION

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• There is wide variation in median student growth percentiles for Kentucky teachers.

Key Findings

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0.0

1.0

2.0

3S

har

e o

f Te

ach

ers

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Teacher MGP

Reading

Math

Note: Sample includes 2,475 teachers in 2012-13.All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

Distribution of Elementary School Teacher MGPs in 2013

Math:Mean: 51.2, SD:16.7

Reading:Mean: 50.3, SD: 13.2

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0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4S

har

e o

f Te

ach

ers

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Teacher MGP

Reading

Math

Note: Sample includes 2,315 teachers in 2012-13.All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

Distribution of Middle School Teacher MGPs in 2013

Math:Mean: 50.7, SD: 15.0

Reading:Mean: 49.9, SD: 11.8

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RETENTION/TURNOVER

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• Teachers in high-poverty schools and in schools with low average test scores are more likely to transfer to other schools in the following year.

• Schools located in cities have higher teacher turnover.• Just over half of newly hired teachers were still teaching in

the same school two years later.

Key Findings

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86.1%

2.9%

1.9%

7.7%

1.4%

Same School

Transfer Within District

Transfer to Another District

Leave Teaching inKentucky Schools

Likely Retiring

Notes: Sample includes teachers with teacher job codes in traditional schools in the 2008-09 through 2010-11 school years,with 126,902 teacher years and 49,455 unique teachers. All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

Average Teacher Retention

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2.4 2.7* 2.7*

4.7*

2.0 2.2* 1.8 1.4*8.8 8.8 8.5

9.6*

13.1 13.8* 13.1

15.7*

01

02

03

04

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Top3rd2ndBottom

Transfer Within Districts

Transfer to Another District

Leave Teaching in Kentucky Schools

*Significantly different from bottom F/RPM quartile value, at the 95 percent confidence level.Notes: Sample includes teachers with teacher job codes in traditional schools in the 2008-09 through 2010-11 school years,with 126,902 teacher years and 49,455 unique teachers. Retention analysis is based on one-year retention rates.All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

by School F/RPM QuartileAverage Teacher Turnover

Higher Poverty

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4.6

3.1* 2.6*2.3*1.8

1.6 1.7 1.610.5

8.7* 8.5* 7.8*

17.0

13.4* 12.8*11.8*

01

02

03

04

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Bottom 2nd 3rd Top

Transfer Within Districts

Transfer to Another District

Leave Teaching in Kentucky Schools

*Significantly different from bottom quartile value, at the 95 percent confidence level.Notes: Sample includes teachers with teacher job codes in traditional schools in the 2008-09 through 2010-11 school years,with 104,240 teacher years and 41,029 unique teachers. Retention analysis is based on one-year retention rates.All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

by School Math Standardized Test Score QuartileAverage Teacher Turnover in Elementary and Middle Schools

Lower Test Scores

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5.6

3.4* 2.1*2.3*

1.1 1.8* 2.4*2.0*9.8 9.2* 9.1* 8.3*

16.4

14.4* 13.6*12.6*

01

02

03

04

0P

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rs

City Suburb Town Rural

Transfer Within Districts

Transfer to Another District

Leave Teaching in Kentucky Schools

*Significantly different from City value, at the 95 percent confidence level.Notes: Sample includes teachers with teacher job codes in traditional schools in the 2008-09 through 2010-11 school years,with 126,838 teacher years and 49,428 unique teachers. Retention analysis is based on one-year retention rates.All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

by LocaleAverage Teacher Turnover

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2.4

3.1 2.8

2.0

2.3

1.6

2.9

2.5

6.5

1.9

2.7 2.52.0

2.6

1.4

2.4

1.4 0.3

7.9

9.9 10.08.6

10.4

6.6

9.27.9

9.6

12.2

15.6 15.3

12.6

15.3

9.7

14.5

11.8

16.4

01

02

03

04

0P

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rs

GRREC OVEC CKEC KEDC WKEC SESC NKCES KVEC JEFF CO

Transfer Within Districts

Transfer to Another District

Leave Teaching in Kentucky Schools

Notes: Sample includes teachers with teacher job codes in traditional schools in the 2008-09 through 2010-11 school years,with 126,902 teacher years and 49,455 unique teachers. Retention analysis is based on one-year retention rates.All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

by Educational CooperativeAverage Teacher Turnover

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87.6

77.3

67.7

90.2

82.2

73.9

100.0

91.8

84.9

77.2

02

04

06

08

01

00P

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rs

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Still Teaching in Kentucky

Still Teaching at Same District

Still Teaching at Same School

Notes: Sample includes 40,635 traditional school teachers with teacher job codes in the 2008-09 school year.All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

Teacher Trajectory (All Teachers)

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71.6

55.7

76.9

62.8

100.0

82.1

70.3

02

04

06

08

01

00P

erc

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f Tea

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rs

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Still Teaching in Kentucky

Still Teaching at Same District

Still Teaching at Same School

Notes: Sample includes 3,542 traditional school teachers with teacher job codes in the 2009-10 school year.All data are from Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics.

Newly Hired Teacher Trajectory

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• What data surprises you or do you find most interesting?

• What measures would you recommend for the state’s Equity Plan?

• Other thoughts/reactions.

Discussion