challenges of the 21st century economy
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The New Hampshire Forum on Higher Education
Recommended Strategy Going Forward
A Report to the Board of GovernorsOctober 30, 2002
Submitted by
Gallagher, Callahan & Gartrell, P.A.Contact: Dr. Lisa K. Shapiro, Chief Economist
www.gcglaw.com
800-528-1181
2
Background Summary of Recommendations Challenges of the 21st Century Economy Forum Strategic Direction Implementation and Next Steps
Overview
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BackgroundBackground
4
Background
Mission StatementThe Forum’s mission is to sustain and grow New Hampshire’s prosperity by ensuring a workforce of highly educated and well-trained workers.
Vision Statement New Hampshire is a community where more citizens seek to attend and have affordable access to in-state higher education institutions and continuing education opportunities, and where higher education institutions are recognized for responsively meeting the evolving business demand for well-educated and skilled workers, providing NH with a well-prepared workforce with which to sustain its economy.
Background
5
Background
Goals to Achieve Mission and Vision
Access &Access &AffordabilityAffordability
Working Partnerships BetweenWorking Partnerships BetweenBusiness/Colleges/UniversitiesBusiness/Colleges/Universities
Change Attitudes and BehaviorsChange Attitudes and Behaviors
Credible VoiceCredible Voice
Nec
essa
ry R
esou
rces
Nec
essa
ry R
esou
rces
Knowledgeable BoardKnowledgeable Board
Necessary R
esources
Necessary R
esources
Citizens KnowCitizens KnowImportance ofImportance of
Higher EducationHigher Education
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Background
Forum Research
Data Data
ReportsReports
ReportsReports
ReportsReports
Data Data
Data Data
Data Data
StudiesStudies
StudiesStudies
StudiesStudies
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Background Strategic Direction of the Forum
Data/StudiesData/Studies
Action 1Action 1 Data/StudiesData/Studies
Action 2Action 2
Data/StudiesData/Studies
Action 3Action 3
Data/Studies Data/Studies
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Summary of RecommendationsSummary of Recommendations
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Summary of Recommendations Strategic Direction for the Forum
Frame problem as the challenge of the 21st century economy
In this economy, business, education and government must work together more closely to keep pace and stay competitive
The Forum’s strategy is to become the “place” where business, education, and government connect to find new ways to grow, attract and retain knowledgeable workers
Summary of Recommendations
Forum Strategic Direction
10
A B
C
Summary of RecommendationsStrategic Direction for the Forum
Forum M
ission
NewNew HighHigh
OldOld LowLow
Eco
nom
yE
cono
my Job S
killsJob S
kills
Summary of Recommendations
Forum Strategic Direction
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A B
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Summary of Recommendations Strategic Direction for the Forum
AccessibleAccessible& Affordable& Affordable
No Access & No Access & Not AffordableNot Affordable
Hig
her E
ducation
Hig
her E
ducation
Forum M
ission
NewNew
OldOld
Eco
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yE
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Summary of Recommendations
Forum Strategic Direction
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Summary of Recommendations Strategic Direction of the Forum
Forum has Necessary ResourcesForum has Necessary Resources
Access and AffordabilityAccess and Affordability
Citizens Know Importance of Higher EducationCitizens Know Importance of Higher Education
Working Partnerships betweenWorking Partnerships betweenBusiness/Colleges/UniversitiesBusiness/Colleges/Universities
Change Attitudes and BehaviorsChange Attitudes and Behaviors
Credible VoiceCredible Voice
Knowledgeable BoardKnowledgeable Board
Summary of Recommendations
Forum Strategic Direction
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Summary of Recommendations
Strategic Direction
Programs
Policy
Promotion
Summary of Recommendations
Power of Partnerships
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Case Statement
Investing in New Hampshire’s Economic Future
Investing in New Hampshire’s Economic FutureStaying competitive in a quickly changing, global economy requires New Hampshire’s higher education institutions and businesses to collaborate in new and innovative ways. The fastest growing sectors in the new economy require highly trained workers with specialized educational and training needs throughout their changing careers – often outside of the traditional classroom. Working closely together, business and education can respond more effectively and efficiently to New Hampshire’s shifting economic needs in ways that allow more people to access learning and the careers of tomorrow.
Summary of Recommendations
Case Statement
17
The Challenge 7 out of 10 of New Hampshire’s fastest growing jobs over the next 10 years require
a post-secondary degree
Demand for college-educated workers is forecasted to outpace supply nationwide
Mobile workforce creates competition for New Hampshire grads
Fast changing economy requires lifelong learning and training creating older, non-traditional student population
New economy jobs require highly specific training
New Hampshire higher education costs outpace inflation
Declining government resources decrease financial aid
Summary of Recommendations
Case Statement
18
The New Hampshire Forum on Higher Education – comprised of business, education and public policy leaders – is committed to ensuring a workforce of highly educated and well-trained citizens to sustain New Hampshire’s economic prosperity.
Because the needs of business, higher education and government are increasingly interconnected, the continued vitality of our evolving economy depends on our ability to anticipate future needs. Whether it’s building awareness, creating access to affordable higher education or specialized workforce training, addressing these needs requires new levels of collaboration in an economy driven by information.
The Forum acts as a catalyst to bring together the strengths and assets of educational, business and government entities to facilitate partnerships, share best practices and discover new ways to work together to ensure New Hampshire’s success in the 21st century economy.
Together, we can play a positive and important role in sustaining New Hampshire educational advancement and economic growth.
Summary of Recommendations
Case Statement
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20
21
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Implementation and Next Steps
Get working partnerships going Engineering/Science/Technology Quality Educators Federal Higher Education Act Reauthorization
Get the Forum message out
Get on and stay on State government leaders’ agenda
Get Forum content up to speed
Summary of Recommendations
23
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
What is the Economy Like?
What works in this Economy?
What can the Forum do as a Catalyst?
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
24
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Information Drives the Economy
Economic Output Per Worker
$19,404 $26,843
1977Less Money
More Physical Goods
1997More Money
Less Physical Goods
38% more
$Output per worker
5,300 lbs 4,100 lbs
23% LessPounds of Output per Worker
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Information Drives the Economy
25
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Education Fuels the Economy
Growth in Mean Earnings
$74,
361
$92,
507
$58,
294
$48,
263
$38,
238
$36,
242
$30,
324
$24,
279
$38,
427
$87,
575
$106
,840
$72,
297
$59,
485
$40,
404
$40,
209
$33,
110
$25,
474
$45,
034
Total No HS diploma HS Diploma Some College Associate'sDegree
Bachelor'sDegree
Master'sDegree
ProfessionalDegree
DoctoralDegree
1991 2000
17%
5%
9%11% 6%
23%
24%
15%
18%
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Education Fuels the Economy
26
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Growth in Share of More Highly Educated Workers
2000
20%
9%
13%
29%
19%
10%
1990 Graduate/
Professional Degree
8%
Bachelor's Degree
16%
Associate's Degree
8%
No H.S.Diploma
18%
H.S. Graduate/ Equivalency
32%
Some college,
No Degree
18%
New Hampshire
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Growth in Share of More Highly Educated Workers
27
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy More Post-Secondary Degrees Are Needed
National Forecast for Workers with College Degrees National Forecast for Workers with College Degrees To Fill New and Replacement Jobs, 2012 To Fill New and Replacement Jobs, 2012
Demand(new graduates needed)
Supply(current degree trends)
18 Million18 Million
12 Million12 Million
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy More Post-Secondary Degrees Are Needed
28
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields
Nursing
Registered and Practical Nursing graduates peaked in NH in 1995, at over 1,000, but has since declined to 416
NH is expected to have 599 annual job openings for RNs and LPNs, and another 261 for Nursing Aides
More than half of NH’s practicing nurses were 45 years old or over in 2001
Just as these nurses are retiring, demand for nursing will increase because of the aging population
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields
29
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields
Teaching
NH conferred 1.7% fewer Bachelor’s Degrees in education in 2000 than in 1992; the US conferred 0.1% more
NH has about 17,500 educators today and expects at least 820 annual K-12 job openings
As many as 500-700 teachers are projected to retire annually, and the retirement rate is projected to double in the next 5 years
Since 1999, Alternative Certification has increased by 187, and total annual certification has reached 1,696
But not all new teachers get jobs in NH, and 67% are not being certified in critical shortage areas, e.g., math, chemistry, special education, and sciences
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields
30
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
7 out of 10 Occupations in NH with the Fastest Growth Rates Require an Associate's Degree or More
Occupation Projected Growth1998-2008
Computer Support Specialist 87.9%
Systems Analyst 87.4%
Desktop Publishing Specialist 84.4%
Database Administrator 72.6%
Home Health Aide 62.3%
Instructional Coordinator 60.4%
Physician Assistant 59.9%
Computer Engineer 57.1%
Medical Assistant 56.9%
Medical Record Technician 53.3%
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
7 out of 10 Occupations in NH with the Fastest Growth Rates Require an Associate's Degree or More
31
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy Many of the Occupations in NH Adding the Most New
Jobs Do Not Require a Post-Secondary Degree
• 50%-60% of projected job openings require less than an Associate's Degree
Occupation Growth Education / Training
Retail Salespersons 4,025 Short-term on-the-job training
Registered Nurses 3,103 Associate's degree
Cashiers 2,874 Short-term on-the-job training
General Managers & Top Executives 2,699 Work experience plus degree
System Analysts 2,364 Bachelor's Degree
General Office Clerks 1,854 Short-term on-the-job training
Nursing Aides, Orderlies & Attendants 1,747 Short-term on-the-job training
Computer Support Specialists 1,707 Associate's Degree
Teacher Aides, Paraprofessionals 1,682 Short-term on-the-job training
First-line Supervisor of Sales & Related Workers 1,600 Work experience in related occupation
1998-20081998-2008
32
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Businesses Need Workers with Special Skill Sets
While demand for engineers and technology workers is expected to increase over the medium and long-term, the number of degrees conferred has declined, and even more so in NH. There has been nearly a 31% decline in annual degrees conferred in NH for engineers as compared with a 6% decline nationally
Aggregating across all computer sciences and engineer degrees, NH still lagged the U.S.
NHNH USUS
-2.8%-2.8% +6.2%+6.2%
Growth in Bachelor’s DegreesIn Computer Sciences and Engineering
1995 to 2000
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Businesses Need Workers with Special Skill Sets
33
Because there is a decline in “old, stable” industrial jobs, educational institutions, students, and businesses continue to intersect throughout a person’s lifetime
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Fast Changing Economy Requires FastChanging Education System
Interaction of Business and Higher EducationInteraction of Business and Higher Education
Old WayOld Way New WayNew Way
Post Secondary Post Secondary EducationEducation
BusinessesBusinesses Post Secondary Post Secondary EducationEducation
BusinessesBusinesses
34
The aging population will accelerate the number of non-traditional students pursuing post-secondary degrees
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Aging Population
NH Population Growth Rates: 1990-2000 and 2005-2015
1990-2000 2005-2015
Total 11% 7%
0-24 years old 4% 0%
25-64 years old 15% 7%
65+ years old 18% 31%
35
On average, college-educated workers have held 4 jobs since graduation, and expect at least one more job change in the future
The percent of adults participating in adult education has increased
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Non-Traditional Students
Percent of AdultsWho Participated in Adult Education1
(by age)
1991 1999
16 to 24 yrs old 33.9% 50.7%
25 to 34 yrs old 41.5% 60.3%
35 to 44 yrs old 45.2% 51.7%
45 to 54 yrs old 32.8% 49.5%
54 to 64 yrs old 22.4% 35.2%
65+ yrs old 10.3% 18.7%
36
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Regional Migration
In Thousands
-298
-228
-120
-43
4
22
43
-1,716
-408
1
NYNJMACTPARIMEVTNH
In Millions
-0.3
0.2
5
-2.7
1
Northeast
Midwest
West
South
Net Population Change By Region
(1990 to 2000 - millions of people)
Net Population ChangeFor Northeast States
(1990 to 2000 - thousands of people)
37
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Immigration
Per cent Share of U.S. J obs Fi l led By For eign-Born
10.6%
21.6%
41.1%
16.2%
16.9%
11.7%
14.9%
14.6%
10.7%
23.5%
31.3%
18.2%
13.0%
27.0%
54.5%
20.5%
20.8%
16.4%
21.6%
17.3%
16.3%
32.9%
37.1%
22.1%
T otal
P hysicians
Medical Scientists
Mathematicians & Computer Scientists
Computer P r ogr ammer s
E ngineer s
Col lege T eacher s
Health & Nur sing Aids
Constr uction T r ades
Constr uction Labor er s
P r ivate Household Ser vices
Food Ser vice Wor ker s
1996
2001
38
The trend of positive net-migration into NH continued through 2001
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Hampshire Migration
State In Out Net
California 11,068 10,491 577
Connecticut 11,862 7,314 4,548
Florida 17,494 26,081 -8,587
Maine 23,076 24,364 -1,288
Massachusetts 113,105 66,727 46,378
New York 17,759 11,009 6,750
Vermont 16,846 15,446 1,400
Total for NH 300,326 249,120 51,206
NH Migration, Top States and Total1995 - 2001
39
Net migration from MA into NH may slow in the future, as the number of people aged 25-64 years will only grow 3% (2005-2015), down from 9% (1990-2000)
MA is still expected to lose 815,000 people by 2025, one of the largest losses in the country
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Hampshire Migration
40
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Hampshire Post-Secondary Performance
NH has one of the lowest high school completion rates in New England, but has an average rank when compared nationally
NH does a better job at sending its high school freshmen to go on to college
High School to College Rate2002
State Percent Rank
Connecticut 48% 8
Maine 43% 16
Massachusetts 54% 3
New Hampshire 44% 14
Rhode Island 47% 9
Vermont 40% 25
41
Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyPost-Secondary Education in New Hampshire
NH growth in post-secondary degrees per capita has been below the national average
Growth in Degrees Per Capita Conferred1990 to 2000
StateAssociate's Degrees
Bachelor's Degrees
Connecticut -12.1% 2.6%
Maine 14.4% 10.5%
Massachusetts -24.5% -7.8%
New Hampshire 8.5% 3.4%
Rhode Island -2.8% -8.5%
Vermont 16.8% -1.1%
US 9.7% 4.1%
42
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Post-Secondary Education in New Hampshire
But NH produces a large number of graduates per capita
Degrees Conferred Per 1,000 PopulationYR 2000
StateAssociate's
Degrees RankBachelor's Degrees Rank
Connecticut 1.3 47 4.4 29
Maine 1.7 31 4.4 26
Massachusetts 1.7 36 6.7 6
New Hampshire 2.5 13 6.3 8
Rhode Island 3.4 4 8.0 2
Vermont 2.6 12 7.9 3
US 2.0 NA 4.4 NA
And is among the top 5 states with a high percentage of college freshmen from outside of the state
43
NH ranks second in the nation for in-state residents who attend college out-of-state
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Hampshire College Student Migration
Percent Rank
Connecticut 43% 5
Maine 39% 6
Massachusetts 28% 15
New Hampshire 50% 2
Rhode Island 33% 10
Vermont 49% 3
Region 36%
U.S. 16%
By State of ResidenceFall 2000
44
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Mobility Creates Competition for Graduates
19%
37%45%
High SchoolHigh SchoolDegreeDegree
CollegeCollegeDegreeDegree
AdvancedAdvancedDegreeDegree
Percent of People Nationally Who Move Out of State(by education level)
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Mobility Creates Competition for Graduates
45
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
College Student Migration Patterns
The top 4 reasons why NH high school graduates do not attend USNH:
Major not offered They want to experience a different environment Better academic reputation Not the right location
College graduates migrate to states with: Higher job growth Lower unemployment Higher pay Lower housing costs Better amenities
Price-quality issues
46
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Migration Patterns
Nationally, 81% of students who graduate from home state institutions live in their home state after four years, compared to only 52% of those who go out-of-state for their post-secondary education
A 2002 point-in-time query from a NH data base found that 78% of NH students attending NH post-secondary schools remain in NH during the first few years after graduating. after a small decline, this number increases to 91% returning within 16 years after graduation
The query also found that 56% of NH students attending non-NH post-secondary schools returned to NH shortly after graduating; this number steadily increased to 88% returning within 16 years after graduation
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Migration Patterns
47
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Higher Education Costs Increasing
Nationally, over the last two decades, the cost of attending public and private colleges has grown more rapidly than inflation and faster than family income
In NH, tuition and fees at public four-year colleges and universities increased by 52% over the last decade – the biggest increase in New England - to the highest costs: $5,557
The median family income in NH over the same decade increased by 19%
NH’s tuition and fees at private four-year institutions increased by 17%, to $18,105, which is about average for New England
48
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Government Resources are Declining
Recession created State budget deficits
Uncertain, subdued recovery
Fiscal conservatism
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Government Resources are Declining
49
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Traditional Relationships Disappearing
Mobility
Rapid Change
Lack of Community
Life as Byte-Sized Pieces
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Traditional Relationships Disappearing
50
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Economy Requires New Types of Relationships
Listserv, for people with common interests
eBay, for buyers and sellers
Just-in-time inventory management, for businesses
Distance learning, for students and workers
On-line licensing, for government
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Economy Requires New Types of Relationships
51
Forum Strategic DirectionForum Strategic Direction
52
Forum Strategic Direction
Strategic Partnerships Connect NH Students to NH Businesses
Challenges
Demand for more educated workers High mobility, especially among college
educated Shortages in critical fields Fast-paced changing economy Need for special skill sets Need for continuous education Increasing numbers of non-traditional
students Aging population Immigration Migration Access and Affordability Declining Government Resources
The Benefits of Partnerships
More likely to attend NH schools
More likely to stay in NH
More likely to return to NH
More financial resources to increase access to post-secondary education
Better educational opportunities
Meets the changing educational needs of students and business
Makes NH businesses more competitive
Forum Strategic Direction
Strategic Partnerships Connect NH Students to NH Businesses
53
Forum Strategic Direction
The Forum helps businesses: Learn what NH educational institutions offer
Identify opportunities to connect to NH students, their future workforce
Suggest what NH educational institutions should offer
Connect with other businesses that may have shared needs
Develop, attract, and retain well-educated workers to meet their needs
Forum Strategic Direction
54
Forum Strategic Direction
The Forum helps educators:
Learn what the NH marketplace needs
Expand opportunities for students
Make their intellectual work relevant to NH businesses
Generate new curriculum and educational approaches
Forum Strategic Direction
55
Forum Strategic Direction
The Forum helps government:
Learn about business/higher education partnerships and efforts
Find ways to leverage funds most to help New Hampshire students, institutions, and businesses
Shape public policy to develop, attract, and retain well-educated workers
Forum Strategic Direction
56
Forum Strategic Direction Examples of Types of Partnerships
Internships
Apprenticeships
Scholarships
Customized Degree Programs
Contract Training/Education
Cooperative Education
Distance Learning
Curriculum Development
Faculty Internships in Business
Executive-On-Loan Appointments
Research Initiatives
Student/Employee Recruitment
College Credit for On-Job Training
Technology Transfer Programs
Industry Advisory Groups
Networking Events
Clearinghouse
Joint Advocacy
Forum Strategic Direction Examples of Types of Partnerships
57
Information gathering and promotion• They exist
• Not well-known nor easily accessible
Expanding existing partnerships Use “third party” Forum to energize and expand
Identifying and developing new opportunities Forum “place” to identify new opportunities
Forum Strategic Direction
Types of Partnership Activities
58
Implementation and Next StepsImplementation and Next Steps
59
Implementation and Next Steps
Get working partnerships going Engineering/Science/Technology Quality Educators Federal Higher Education Act Reauthorization
Get the Forum message out
Get on and stay on State government leaders’ agenda
Get Forum content up to speed
Implementation and Next Steps
60
Implementation and Next Steps
Wrap up, roll out, implement, measure, quality educator Task Force recommendations (1/03)
Develop/launch/measure initiative to expand engineering/technology connections between business, higher education, and government (Commence work December 2002)
• Identify members of the Board with interest to form a Task Force
• Identify additional industry/education experts and stakeholders
• Supporting research
• Define the work and how to expand existing efforts such as Project Lead The Way and Dual Admissions programs
• Promote, implement, measure
Implementation and Next Steps
61
Implementation and Next Steps
Investigate the creation of an industry advisory group in healthcare to expand connections of existing programs and to propose, agree, implement, and measure outcomes (Q1-2003)
Develop a joint advocacy position on Federal re-authorization of the Higher Education Act of 1965 (merit awards, Pell Grants, loan and debt burden issues, performance measures, graduation rates)
• Host discussions
• Policy briefing
• Joint advocacy
Implementation and Next Steps
62
Implementation and Next Steps
Refine external promotional materials (Q1-2003)• Evolve talking points and power point presentation (12/03)• Develop Press & Media Kit (12/02)• Finalized 4-page Case Statement (12/02)• Complete Higher Education Economic Impact Study (1/03)• Get on the web
Board of Governors to speak to business, education, and government audiences on need for Forum and actions taken (Q1-2003)
• Board members identify opportunities to speak (2 per member)• Identify 10 key spokespeople willing to become familiar with the
Forum’s talking points and to deliver the message• Complete 30 speaking engagements during Q1-2003• Collect names and ideas to expand partnerships at speaking
engagements
Implementation and Next Steps
63
Implementation and Next Steps
Implement media strategy & communications plan (Q1-2003 & beyond)
• Speaking Engagements• Media and Editorial Boards• Radio and TV Talk Shows
Develop/Implement government relations strategy to get on and stay on State government leaders’ agenda (Q4-2002 & beyond )
Host Reception at BAE Systems with Patrick Callan “Measuring Up 2002” (11/13/02) (Attend and Bring a Colleague)
64
Implementation and Next Steps
Host Legislative Breakfast 1/23/03 – Higher Education Economic Impact Study (Attend and Bring a Colleague)
Build out Forum “members” through speaking engagements, surveys, industry advisory groups, promotional opportunities, web presence (Q1 & Q2 2003)
Create an inventory of existing innovative business/higher education partnerships to include in Forum promotional materials and to promote (Q1-2003) – Request College Presidents/Business Leaders to submit examples based on a Forum template
65
Implementation and Next Steps
Create user-friendly access to existing partnerships for students, educators, business, and government in New Hampshire (Q2 & Q3 2003)
Showcase one partnership example at the January(?)2003 Governors’ Meeting
Track supply/demand trends to identify areas of opportunity for the Forum to act as a catalyst to increase connections and opportunities
• Survey businesses• Survey educators • Survey best practices• Track labor market data trends
Implementation and Next Steps
66
Sources & NotesInformation Drives the Economy
Source: “10 Driving Principles of the New Economy,” Business 2.0, March 2000.
Education Fuels the Economy
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Educational Attainment – Full-Time, Year-Round Workers, 25 Years Old and Over by Mean Earnings and Sex, 2000 Dollars.”
Notes: Nationwide data; “HS Diploma” includes equivalency.
Growth in Share of More Highly Educated Workers
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Notes: Residents 25 years old and over.
More Post-Secondary Degrees Are Needed
Source: “Challenges Facing the American Workplace: The American Workplace Report,” Employment Policy Foundation, 2002, Figure 57, at 36.
Notes: “College Degrees” refer to baccalaureate degrees.
New Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields
Nursing:
Sources: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), “Completions” Surveys; New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, “New Hampshire Employment Projections by Industry and Occupation, Base Year 1998 to Projected Year 2008,” January 2001; “Proposal to US Department of Labor H-1B Technical Skills Training Grant,” Workforce Opportunity Council, April 22, 2002, at 3.
Sources & Notes
67
Sources & NotesNew Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields Teaching: Sources: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), “Completions” Surveys; New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, “New Hampshire Employment Projections by Industry and Occupation, Base Year 1998 to Projected Year 2008,” January 2001; “Teacher Shortage in NH: A USNH Report and Response, White Paper,” June 19, 2002 at 4; New Hampshire Department of Education, Division of Program Support, Bureau of Credentiality, “New Certificate Issues” and “Number Who Are Employed in Public School,” (Revised Date) September 24, 2002; New Hampshire Retirement System.
7 out of 10 Fastest Growing Occupations in NH Require an Associates Degree or MoreSource: New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, “New Hampshire Employment Projections by Industry and Occupation, Base Year 1998 to Projected Year 2008,” January 2001, at 38.
Many of the Occupations in NH Adding the Most New Jobs Do Not Require a Post-Secondary DegreeSource: New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, “New Hampshire Employment Projections by Industry and Occupation, Base Year 1998 to Projected Year 2008,” January 2001, at 33 and 41; “meeting the Challenge: Higher Education and the New Economy in New Hampshire,” Ross Gittell and Brian Gottlob, February 2001, at 7.Notes: New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, projects that about 37% of all new jobs created in NH will require at least a two-year college degree, while Gittell and Gottlob believe that 50% of all new jobs will be for college-educated workers, based on their analysis.
Sources & Notes
68
Sources & NotesBusinesses Need Workers with Special Skill SetsSource: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), “Completions” Surveys.
Aging PopulationSource: U.S. Census Bureau, historical population data and “Projections of the Population, By Age and Sex, of States: 1995 to 2025.”
Non-Traditional StudentsSources: U.S. Department of Education; “Lifetime Learning Survey,” George Mason University and the Potomac KnowledgeWay, June 1998; U.S. Department of Education, Office of Educational Research and Improvement, National Center for Education Statistics, Statistical Analysis Report, “Participation Trends and Patterns in Adult Education: 1991 to 1999,” February 2002, Table B3, at 71.Notes: College-educated workers surveyed were aged 30-55 and out of school for at least ten years. Trends in career changes cut across all industries and all kinds of degrees earned. Adult education activities include adult basic education, English as a Second Language course, apprenticeship programs, some programs leading to a formal (typically college) credential, courses taken for work-related reasons, and non-work related courses. Full-time participation in post-secondary credential programs by those aged 16-24 is not counted as an adult education activity. Adults are defined as civilian, non-institutionalized individuals aged 16 or older who are not in elementary or secondary education.
Regional MigrationSource: The Washington Post, “The Northeast’s Shifting Labor Supply,” July 22, 2002 at A3.)
ImmigrationSource: Barron’s, “New Melting Pot,” September 2, 2002, at 17-19, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Sources & Notes
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Sources & NotesNew Hampshire Migration The trend of…Source: “Economic Perspectives for New England and New Hampshire,” Presentation by Denis Delay to the NH Business & Industry Association, September 25, 2002.
New Hampshire MigrationNet migration… and MA is still…Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Projections of the Population, By Age and Sex, of States: 1995 to 2025.”
New Hampshire College Student MigrationSource: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, "Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2000 and Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2000," NCES 2002-212, by Laura G. Knapp et al, Table 21.Notes: All First-Time, First-Year Degree / Certificate Seeking Students Enrolled in Title IV Degree-Granting Institutions, by State of Residence: Fall 2000; Ranks reflect the 50 states and the District of Columbia
Mobility Creates Competition for Graduates Source: Kodrzychi, Y.K., “Migration of Recent College Graduates: Evidence of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth,” New England Economic Review, January/February 2001, at 15. Notes: Percentage reflects all first-time, first-year degree / certificate seeking students enrolled in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the Fall of 2000. Percentages vary depending on whether or not students graduated from high school in the last 12 months and on the type of institution they attend (e.g., private, public, 2-year, 4-year). The NLSY (a project of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics) is based on a nationally representative sample of about 6,000 persons who were 14 to 22 years old in 1979 and were interviewed once a year until 1994 and once every other year thereafter.
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Sources & NotesMigration PatternsSource: The New Hampshire Forum on Higher Education’s Draft Mission Statement, August 9, 2002; New Hampshire Higher Education Assistance Foundation’s Network Migration Report, September 11, 2002 (DRAFT – not yet publicly available).
College Student Migration PatternsSources: Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Senior Survey; Kodrzycki, Yolanda K., “Migration of Recent College Graduates: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth,” New England Economic Review, January/February 2001, at 18.
New Hampshire Post-Secondary PerformanceSource: “Measuring Up 2002, the State-by-State Report Card for Higher Education,” The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, "State Comparison Results: Raw Scores Participation."Notes: Data in table reflect high school freshmen enrolling in college within 4 years in any state. The rankings reported here are generally representative of how NH ranks in the region and the nation. However, estimates of high school completion rates and college participation rates vary significantly depending on which populations are included in the analyses and which years are looked at. For example, “Measuring Up 2002” found that NH had the lowest public and private high school completion rate of any New England state, at 86%, and ranked 35th nationally, while “Postsecondary Education Opportunity” found that NH had the second lowest public high school completion rate of any New England state, at 74%, and ranked 17th nationally. As another example, “Dashboard Indicators: Higher Education in New Hampshire, Fall 2001" reports that the ratio of college-bound seniors to high school graduates was 82% in 1999, the second highest of any New England state and well above the lowest rate of 64% in Vermont. In comparison, “Postsecondary Education Opportunity” found that NH’s rate of public and private high school graduates going on to college
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Sources & NotesNew Hampshire Post-Secondary Performance (Notes continued)was 59%, ranked 23rd nationally, while a survey of NH's graduating high school class of June 2001 found that 71% of those graduating were continuing on to a postsecondary institution. Finally, "Meeting the Challenge" (Gittell and Gottlob) indicates that the percent of NH high school graduates going on to post-secondary institutions is about 66%, described as "average" but lower than NH's economic peer states.
Post-secondary Education in NHNH growth…Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1993 (Table 236) and 2001 (Table 251), based on Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), "Completions" Survey.
Post-Secondary Education in New HampshireBut NH produces… Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1993 (Table 236) and 2001 (Table 257) based on Integrated Postsecondary Education Data Systems (IPEDS) “Completions” Survey; U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, “Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2000, and Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2000,” National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics 2002-212, Laura G .Knapp et al, Table 21. Notes: Ranked best to worst, 50 states and D.C.
Higher Education Costs Increasing Source: "Losing Ground - A National Status Report on the Affordability of American Higher Education," The National Policy Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, 2002, at 22-30.Notes: All dollar amounts and percentage increases are adjusted for inflation. Figures for annual tuition and fees at public four-year institutions are for 1992 through 2001, those for private four-year institutions are for 1991 through 2000, and those for annual median family income for four-person families are for 1991 through 2000.
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