changes in household formation (scotland) esther roughsedge household estimates & projections...

Changes in household formation(Scotland)

Esther Roughsedge

Household Estimates & Projections BranchNational Records of Scotland (NRS)

Workshop on UK population change and housing across the life course

June 2015

Outline

• Sources– Household estimates and projections – Census, housing statistics, surveys

• Results– Trends in household formation– Trends in different age groups

• Older people• Young people

Household projections

• Produced every two years – most recent set 2012-based.

• Projections of the number of households 25 years into the future, by:– Council area

– Age of head of household

– Household type

• Projections are based on past trends. They are not forecasts – we don’t attempt to account for future economic or social changes.

• Lots of overlaps in the trends and methods used in different parts of the UK.

Household projections method

• Take population projections; • Subtract population living in communal

establishments, e.g., student halls, barracks, care homes;

• Project forward information on household type (‘headship rates’), e.g., single adult, two adults plus children– Use three censuses (1991, 2001 and 2011). – Scottish Household Survey data for 2012 - weights

Household estimates • Produced from Council Tax information• Neighbourhood level data on:

– Households / occupied dwellings.– Empty dwellings and second homes.– Some information on household type, e.g., single adult

discounts.– Type of dwelling (e.g., flat, detached house etc.).– Number of rooms.– Council Tax band of dwelling – giving a rough idea of value.

• Also allows analysis by level of deprivation and urban/rural areas.

% dwellings in Council Tax band A-C around St Andrews

Uses of household estimates and projections

• Assessing housing need and demand.• Allocating land to housing.• Planning services, including community

care, waste collection, water and sewerage services.

• Transport models.

Overall trends in household formation

Household numbers rising faster than population

-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Per

cen

tag

e ch

ang

e si

nce

199

1

Year

By 2013 there were almost 18% more households than in 1991

In constrast, the population was just under 5 per cent higher

Source: NRS population and household estimates

More people living alone and in smaller households

Number of households, by size

Source: NRS household estimates

The fall in average household size is slowing

Household projections results

Source: NRS household projections (2012-based)

Increases in smaller households

Source: NRS household projections (2012-based)

More one-adult households in urban areas, and in more deprived areas

Source: NRS household estimates – households receiving a Council Tax discount as they only contain 1 adult (2013)

Older people

The population is ageing

300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90+

Age

(5

year

age

gro

ups)

Population

FemaleMale

1861

300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90+

Age

(5

year

age

gro

ups)

Population

FemaleMale

1961

Source: NRS population estimates and projections

Biggest growth is in older households

Source: NRS household projections (2012-based)

Households containing 1 or 2 older adults

Source: NRS household projections (2012-based)

Note: These charts just cover the three largest household types for these age groups

Older people - summary

• Women live longer than men→ Older women are more likely to live alone

• Men’s life expectancy is increasing faster→ More older couple households→ More men living alone

→ Implications for housing and social / health care

Young adults

Global economic downturn

• Fall in house-building• More difficult to get a mortgage• More economic uncertainty

→ This has affected household formation, with the biggest effect on young adults.

Long-term trends in house-building

Increase in young males living alone is smaller than previously projected; also applies to young females

Source: NRS household projections (2010- and 2012-based)

Increase in young males living alone is smaller than previously projected; also applies to young females

Source: NRS household projections (2010- and 2012-based)

Reduction in 3+ adult households headed by 45-64yr olds is lower than projected previously

Source: NRS household projections (2010- and 2012-based)

Reduction in 3+ adult households headed by 45-64yr olds is lower than projected previously

Source: NRS household projections (2010- and 2012-based)

Young adults

Source: Census

Young adults

More young adults are living with

parents, and fewer are living as a

couple

Source: Census

Tenure by age, 2001 & 2011

Source: Census

Tenure by age, 2001 & 2011

Source: Census

Summary• Household numbers are still increasing,

but by less than in the past.• Biggest changes are among young adults:

– Fewer living alone or in couples.– More living with parents.– More renting.

• Older people are most likely to live alone– Particularly older women– Large increases in numbers of older people

Contact details

• Esther.Roughsedge@nrscotland.gov.uk• Tel 0131 3144251• www.nrscotland.gov.uk• Register for updates on ScotStat at

www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/ scotstat

• The Scottish Government is recruiting for Statisticians – pass it on!

• www.work-for-scotland.org