changing missouri demographics: local population trends january 22nd, 2010 springfield, missouri...
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Changing Missouri Demographics: Local Population Trends
January 22nd, 2010
Springfield, Missouri
Tracy Greever-Rice PhD, Associate Director Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA)University of Missouri
Overview of Session
• A few words about OSEDA• Missouri Demographic Trends• The 2010 Census
– The Decennial Census 2010– The American Community Survey (ACS)
• Understanding Local Missouri Communities Using ACS Applications– http://mcdc1.missouri.edu/acsprofiles/acsprofileme
nu.html
• Data Data
• Information Information
• Knowledge Knowledge
• WisdomWisdom
“The construction of knowledge involves the orderly loss of information, not it’s mindless accumulation.”
-- Kenneth Boulding
Http://WWW.OSEDA.MISSOURI.EDU
OSEDA collaborates with partners in the analysis of social and economic data in ways that contribute to improvements in the well-being of people, enterprises and communities.
OSEDA…
Change in Population By State2000 – 2008
Change in Population By State 2000 – 2008 Total Population 2009
World: 6.8 Billion
U.S.: 307 Million
Mo.: 5,987,580
Missouri 381,515 6.8%
US 24,834,593 8.8%
Using the latest 2009Population Estimates to make projections for2010 -- Missouri retainsthe 9th
The December estimatesshow Arizona growing alittle less rapidly…
But, migration is beingimpacted by the recession, and “Complete Count” issues may make the difference.
Population Estimates
• More Population Estimates via OSEDA at
MCDC.missouri.edu• Sub-County Estimates for 2008 just
released….Columbia officially over 100,000.
• OSEDA County Profiles
2010 Census
• Mother of all address lists (enumeration)• Only “Short Form” in 2010 (the count)• Reapportionment and redistricting file by the end of
2010.• Representation and Resource Allocation• Issues: “Disproportionate Undercount”• Hence: “Complete Count” Programs
• Instead of “Long Form” we have:– “The American Community Survey”
American Community Survey
• Nationwide, continuous annual survey collecting the information on the 2000 Census “long form”– Demographic, Economic, Social and Housing– From 1 in 6 households in 2000 to 1 in 8 now– Three Million households a year
• Most definitive source of such data (allocations)• Involves Margins of Error --- ( +/- ) like polls.
– OSEDA Web application uses bold font for low MOE…
• Three types of estimates each year based on size– 1-Year -- 65,000 population or more (Available Now) – 3-Year -- 20,000 population or more (Available Now)– 5-year -- Less than 20,000 population (Coming fall 2010)
American Community Survey
• Resources:– Http://OSEDA.Missouri.edu– Http://mcdc.missouri.edu – Http://census.gov
• ApplicationsHttp://OSEDA.Missouri.edu
Reports/Applications
Demographics
Profiles
Trendshttp://mcdc1.missouri.edu/acsprofiles/acsprofilemenu.html
http://mcdc1.missouri.edu/acsprofiles/acstrendmenu.html
Under 20K PeriodEstimates will beAvailable in the fallof 2010
Annual County Maps will then be possible from ACS
Public Use Mirco Areas (PUMS)
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