chapter 18, section iv. traditional methods political party organizations party leaders in cities...
Post on 27-Dec-2015
218 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION
Chapter 18, Section IV
Traditional Methods
Political Party OrganizationsParty leaders in cities communicated with
national party leaders keeping them posted about the publics attitudes and opinions
Interest GroupsOften represent only a small vocal minority
concerned with a specific issue
Traditional Methods
Mass MediaNewscasts that get higher ratings show
more public interestDrawbacks are that media relies on shock
value and this can distort reality○ People that get their news solely from TV tend
to be pessimistic
Traditional Methods
Shock Value Examples
Traditional Methods
Letter WritingInterest groups stage massive letter writing
campaigns generating thousands of lettersNational Write Your Congressman
○ For profit service that sums up legislation and helps you contact your elected officials
Purple Letter○ For profit service
that helps you contact electedofficials
Traditional Methods
Electronic AccessEmailFaxTwitterInternet
Straw PollsUnscientific attempts to measure public
opinionBiased sample – people who respond are
self selected (they choose to respond)
Scientific Polling Sample Populations
The Universe: group of people being studied○ If I asked the senior class where the prom should be
held, what would be the universe?Representative Sample: Small group of people
representative of the universe○ If I asked every fourth senior homeroom the same
question, I would have a representative sample of your class
Random Sampling: Everyone in the universe has an equal chance of being selected○ 1,200-1,500 adults accurately measure the opinions of
212 million people
Scientific Polling
Sampling Error: How much the sample results may differ from the sample universe1,200-1,500 people
give us an error of +/- 3%
Unskewed Polls
Scientific Polling
Sampling ProceduresCluster Sampling – organizing sampling by
geographical divisions○ Race○ Gender○ Age○ Education
Scientific Polling
Poll QuestionsDo you believe serial murderers should be
executed?Do you support capital punishment?
Scientific Polling
Mail and Phone PollsCheaper than in home interviews
○ Less polls are returned (mail only 10-15%)Random Digit Dialing
○ Area code and first three digits are selected and a computer picks the last 4
○ People don’t answer the phone, or don’t want to answer the questions
Scientific Polling
Interpreting ResultsNever completely accurate
○ Honesty?Has improved greatly since its inception in
the 1930’sCan usually predict outcomes within a few
percentage points
top related