chemical weapons how are they “unconventional?”. i. history of cw: see readings note the process...

Chemical WeaponsChemical Weapons

How are they How are they “unconventional?”“unconventional?”

I. History of CW: See ReadingsI. History of CW: See Readings

Note the process of “agent escalation” – Note the process of “agent escalation” – tear gas tear gas chlorine chlorine phosgene phosgene mustard mustard lewisite, etc. lewisite, etc.

Note also the efforts to control CWNote also the efforts to control CW

Finally, compare military effects of CW to Finally, compare military effects of CW to conventional explosivesconventional explosives

II. Effects of CWII. Effects of CW

A.A. Distinction between protected / Distinction between protected / unprotected targets: CW seldom kills unprotected targets: CW seldom kills protected troops.protected troops.

B.B. Specific Agents Have Different EffectsSpecific Agents Have Different Effects

1. “Poison Gas:” Blood Gases and 1. “Poison Gas:” Blood Gases and Pulmonary AgentsPulmonary Agents

a.a. Casualties: High within small areasCasualties: High within small areas

b.b. Uses on the battlefield: Quickly dispersed by Uses on the battlefield: Quickly dispersed by wind and diluted by airwind and diluted by air

c.c. Recent uses: Used for executions in Recent uses: Used for executions in enclosed areas, used by Iraqi insurgentsenclosed areas, used by Iraqi insurgents

d. Sources of Condemnationd. Sources of Condemnationi.i. Use for executions and mass murder Use for executions and mass murder

(Holocaust)(Holocaust)

ii.ii. Secondary effect on medical personnel during Secondary effect on medical personnel during surgery (release of toxic gases)surgery (release of toxic gases)

iii.iii. Agent Escalation and Mass casualties in WW IAgent Escalation and Mass casualties in WW I

2. Vesicants2. Vesicantsa.a. Casualties: Casualties:

i.i. Mustard: Few in short-term but many over Mustard: Few in short-term but many over long period. High proportion of wounded to long period. High proportion of wounded to killed.killed.

ii.ii. Lewisite: Many casualties quickly – death Lewisite: Many casualties quickly – death can occur within minutes.can occur within minutes.

b.b. Uses on the battlefield: Mass casualties Uses on the battlefield: Mass casualties to overload medical systems, force use to overload medical systems, force use of bulky CW equipment, secondary area of bulky CW equipment, secondary area contaminationcontamination

c.c. Recent uses: Most common agents used Recent uses: Most common agents used in modern wars (Yemen, Iran-Iraq)in modern wars (Yemen, Iran-Iraq)

d. Sources of Condemnationd. Sources of Condemnationi.i. Invisibility of threat – Soldiers can acquire lethal doses Invisibility of threat – Soldiers can acquire lethal doses

without realizing it, then die painfully days laterwithout realizing it, then die painfully days later

ii.ii. Nature of injuries – Blistering and burns. Example Nature of injuries – Blistering and burns. Example (Iranian casualty from Iraqi mustard attack):(Iranian casualty from Iraqi mustard attack):

3. Nerve Agents3. Nerve Agentsa.a. Casualties: Very high within area of exposure. Casualties: Very high within area of exposure.

Decline with distance and timeDecline with distance and timeb.b. Uses on the battlefield: Mass fatalities, Area Uses on the battlefield: Mass fatalities, Area

contamination, force use of bulky CW equipmentcontamination, force use of bulky CW equipmentc.c. Recent uses: Iraqi use against Kurds, Aum ShinrikyoRecent uses: Iraqi use against Kurds, Aum Shinrikyod.d. Sources of condemnation: Invisibility, pre-existing Sources of condemnation: Invisibility, pre-existing

norms against CWnorms against CW

4. Incapacitants (CS, BZ, Fentanyl)4. Incapacitants (CS, BZ, Fentanyl)

a.a. Casualties: Designed to temporarily disable Casualties: Designed to temporarily disable without killing. Overdoses can be lethal.without killing. Overdoses can be lethal.

b.b. Uses on the Battlefield: Flush enemies from Uses on the Battlefield: Flush enemies from bunkers, disable command/control, avoiding bunkers, disable command/control, avoiding civilian deaths in riots and hostage rescue civilian deaths in riots and hostage rescue situationssituations

c.c. Recent Uses: US in Vietnam, Iraq against Iran Recent Uses: US in Vietnam, Iraq against Iran and Kurds, Waco and Moscow theater siegesand Kurds, Waco and Moscow theater sieges

d.d. Sources of condemnation: Agent escalation in Sources of condemnation: Agent escalation in WW I and subsequent conflictsWW I and subsequent conflicts

III. The Law of CW III. The Law of CW UseUse (Proliferation will come later…)(Proliferation will come later…)

A.A. Declaration of St. Petersburg (1868) – Declaration of St. Petersburg (1868) – Renounces use of small (< 400 g) Renounces use of small (< 400 g) “fulminating or inflammable” projectiles in “fulminating or inflammable” projectiles in war (explosive bullets) war (explosive bullets) between between signatoriessignatories

B.B. Hague Convention (1899) – Renounces Hague Convention (1899) – Renounces use of projectiles that diffuse use of projectiles that diffuse asphyxiating or deleterious gases asphyxiating or deleterious gases (Germany claims chlorine cylinder attack (Germany claims chlorine cylinder attack doesn’t violate – later claims Mustard doesn’t violate – later claims Mustard isn’t a gas)isn’t a gas)

C. Geneva Protocol (1925)C. Geneva Protocol (1925)

Prohibited the use of "asphyxiating gas, or Prohibited the use of "asphyxiating gas, or any other kind of gas, liquids, substances any other kind of gas, liquids, substances or similar materials“or similar materials“Only applied to interstate wars (states Only applied to interstate wars (states reserved the right to use CW against their reserved the right to use CW against their own people or colonies)own people or colonies)Many nations reserve right to retaliate Many nations reserve right to retaliate against violatorsagainst violatorsAmbiguous use of “other” is interpreted to Ambiguous use of “other” is interpreted to allow nonlethal CWallow nonlethal CW

D. The Chemical Weapons D. The Chemical Weapons ConventionConvention

Outlaws all use of CW agents except:Outlaws all use of CW agents except:““1. Industrial, agricultural, research, medical, pharmaceutical 1. Industrial, agricultural, research, medical, pharmaceutical or other peaceful purposes;or other peaceful purposes;2. Protective purposes, namely those purposes directly 2. Protective purposes, namely those purposes directly related to protection against toxic chemicals and to protection related to protection against toxic chemicals and to protection against chemical weapons;against chemical weapons;3. Military purposes not connected with the use of chemical 3. Military purposes not connected with the use of chemical weapons and not dependent on the use of the toxic weapons and not dependent on the use of the toxic properties of chemicals as a method of warfare;properties of chemicals as a method of warfare;4. Law enforcement including domestic riot control 4. Law enforcement including domestic riot control purposes.”purposes.”

Note that riot control agents Note that riot control agents areare now prohibited now prohibited in in warfarewarfareAlso note that toxic chemicals are OK if their Also note that toxic chemicals are OK if their other properties (flammability, explosiveness, other properties (flammability, explosiveness, etc) are the key to their military effectivenessetc) are the key to their military effectiveness

E. Which countries can legally use CW?E. Which countries can legally use CW?Not bound by Geneva Protocol or CWC:Not bound by Geneva Protocol or CWC:– Bahamas (signed CWC but has not ratified)Bahamas (signed CWC but has not ratified)– Comoros (signed CWC but has not ratified)Comoros (signed CWC but has not ratified)– Congo (signed CWC but has not ratified)Congo (signed CWC but has not ratified)– Myanmar (signed CWC but has not ratified)Myanmar (signed CWC but has not ratified)– SomaliaSomalia

Bound by Geneva Protocol but not CWC: Bound by Geneva Protocol but not CWC: – Central African Republic (signed CWC but has not ratified)Central African Republic (signed CWC but has not ratified)– Dominican Republic (signed CWC but has not ratified)Dominican Republic (signed CWC but has not ratified)– Guinea-Bissau (signed CWC but has not ratified)Guinea-Bissau (signed CWC but has not ratified)– Israel (signed CWC but has not ratified)Israel (signed CWC but has not ratified)– Angola Angola – BarbadosBarbados– North KoreaNorth Korea– EgyptEgypt– Iraq (bound by UN cease-fire agreement of 1991)Iraq (bound by UN cease-fire agreement of 1991)– LebanonLebanon– Syrian Arab RepublicSyrian Arab Republic

III. Are CW WMD?III. Are CW WMD?A.A. Problem: Accurate modeling difficult. Examples:Problem: Accurate modeling difficult. Examples:

1. Single release may generate multiple plumes1. Single release may generate multiple plumes

2. Buildings affect dispersion2. Buildings affect dispersion

B. DHS ScenariosB. DHS Scenarios

Mustard/Lewisite released by aircraft over Mustard/Lewisite released by aircraft over stadium of 100,000 peoplestadium of 100,000 people– 150 fatalities; 70,000 hospitalized150 fatalities; 70,000 hospitalized

Sarin injected into three large office Sarin injected into three large office buildings using six injectorsbuildings using six injectors– 6,000 fatalities (95% of building occupants); 6,000 fatalities (95% of building occupants);

350 injuries350 injuries

C. Rough EstimationC. Rough Estimation

Model plume as if no terrain exists. Plume is Model plume as if no terrain exists. Plume is teardrop-shaped (if wind > 10 km/hr) or circular teardrop-shaped (if wind > 10 km/hr) or circular (if little wind) from point of release(if little wind) from point of releasePlume is more elongated as wind increases, but Plume is more elongated as wind increases, but also less concentratedalso less concentratedDivide plume into zonesDivide plume into zonesAssign each zone a lethality level (% killed) Assign each zone a lethality level (% killed) based on likely dosebased on likely doseEstimate # of people in each zone and apply Estimate # of people in each zone and apply lethality levels to determine deathslethality levels to determine deaths

Sample Lethality TableSample Lethality Table

D. Persistence: Difficult to estimate economic D. Persistence: Difficult to estimate economic damages or area-denial importancedamages or area-denial importance

Since attacks have little effect on Since attacks have little effect on protected targets, real intent is often to protected targets, real intent is often to degrade efficiency through contamination degrade efficiency through contamination (requires bulky protective gear)(requires bulky protective gear)

E. Chemicals compared to E. Chemicals compared to bioweapons and nuclear weaponsbioweapons and nuclear weapons

F. Example: Attack on NYCF. Example: Attack on NYC(King’s County Census Tracts)(King’s County Census Tracts)Map = Approx. 7 miles acrossMap = Approx. 7 miles across

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Wind 15 MPH

Attack ParametersAttack Parameters

Nerve Gas (Sarin) sprayed at ground level Nerve Gas (Sarin) sprayed at ground level from trucks over 2-block areafrom trucks over 2-block area

About 2000 Gallons usedAbout 2000 Gallons used

Point of attackPoint of attack

Wind 15 MPH

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Plume by TimePlume by Time

Wind 15 MPH

0

1

2

3

4

5

3 minutes 6 minutes 12 minutes

Plume by TimePlume by Time

Wind 15 MPH

0

1

2

3

4

5

3 minutes 6 minutes 12 minutes

Next Step: Figure Next Step: Figure out how many are out how many are

in each plume in each plume areaarea

Zooming in on Zooming in on affected area….affected area….

Next Step: Figure Next Step: Figure out how many are out how many are

in each plume in each plume areaarea

Averaging Averaging Population per Population per Census TractCensus Tract

Average People

845

2363

3717

5649

10934

Next Step: Figure Next Step: Figure out how many are out how many are

in each plume in each plume areaarea

Count Census Count Census Tracts in each zoneTracts in each zone

AvePop 0-3 m 3-6 m 6-12 m

845 1 0 5

2363 2 7 13

3717 0 4 4

5649 0 .75 1.5

10934 .67 0 1

How many were exposed?How many were exposed?Simple model assumes no protection – as if Simple model assumes no protection – as if everyone was standing outsideeveryone was standing outside

AvePop 0-3 m 3-6 m 6-12 m

845 1 0 5

2363 2 7 13

3717 0 4 4

5649 0 .75 1.5

10934 .67 0 1

How many were exposed?How many were exposed?Multiply number of tracts by average tract Multiply number of tracts by average tract population…..population…..

AvePop 0-3 m 3-6 m 6-12 m

845 845 0 4225

2363 5726 16541 30719

3717 0 14868 14868

5649 0 4237 8474

10934 7326 0 10934

How many were exposed?How many were exposed?Multiply number of tracts by average tract Multiply number of tracts by average tract population…..population…..

AvePop 0-3 m 3-6 m 6-12 m

845 845 0 4225

2363 5726 16541 30719

3717 0 14868 14868

5649 0 4237 8474

10934 7326 0 10934

TOTALS 13897 35646 69220

Compare to average lethality for Compare to average lethality for each zoneeach zone

Problem: requires data on aerosol Problem: requires data on aerosol dispersion given wind speed and dispersion given wind speed and quantities used. Pre-calculated tables quantities used. Pre-calculated tables best.best.

Sample data for Sarin:Sample data for Sarin:– 3 min zone = 30% dead3 min zone = 30% dead– 3-6 min zone = 15% dead3-6 min zone = 15% dead– 6-12 min zone = 5% dead6-12 min zone = 5% dead

Adding up deathsAdding up deaths

ZoneZone ExposedExposed LethalityLethality DEADDEAD

3 min3 min 1389713897 30%30% 41694169

6 min6 min 3564635646 15%15% 53475347

12 min12 min 6922069220 5%5% 34613461

TOTALTOTAL 1297712977