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Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
China CE and HA Industry Overview
IHS TECHNOLOGY, MEDIA AND TELECOM
Bing Zhang 张 兵
Director, Research and Analysis | TMT Shenzhen China
Bing.zhang@ihsmarkit.com
May 2018
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
China Consumer Markets
2
Worldwide and China Consumer Electronic market
China Home Appliance
Wrap Up
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
China Consumer Markets Economy is the key driving force of consumer market, consumption habits differ greatly in China
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
China economy outlook summary
4
*Annual average, **Billions of US dollars
0
100
200
300
400
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
0
3
6
9
12
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200
2
4
6
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Real GDP growth (%)
Exchange rate per US dollar*
Consumer price inflation (%)
Current-account balance**
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
• Real GDP increased 6.9% y/y in
2017, supported by policy stimulus
to ensure stability, it is expected to
keep increasing the coming years,
with higher than 6% y/y.
• Efforts to reduce excess industrial
capacity, the anti-pollution
campaign, and a housing-market
correction will slow real GDP
growth from 6.8% in 2017 to 6.5%
in 2018 and 6.2% in 2019.
• The yuan is expected to
depreciate gradually against the
US dollar through 2020.
• Under China’s 13th five-year plan,
services will account for 70% of
incremental growth in 2016–20, up
from about 60% in 2011–15.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
China’s consumption growth is expected to rise in 2018; Engel’s law in action,
consumption habits differ greatly between Beijing and in-land provinces
Note: 2016 urban data for 31 provinces and municipalities in China
Food spending and household income
Guangdong
Beijing
Shanghai
Jiangsu
TianjinShandong
FujianXinjiang
TibetHainan
HunanChongqing Hubei
HeilongjiangJiangxi
Sichuan
Shanxi
Shaanxi
Henan
Qinghai Hebei
GuizhouGansuJilin
Ningxia
Inner Mongolia
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Entertainment spending and household income
Jiangsu
Beijing
Guangdong Shanghai
ZhejiangTianjin
Jilin
Gansu
Guizhou
Shaanxi
Fujian
Henan
Hunan
Sichuan
Yunnan
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
Shanxi
Hainan
Guangxi
Heilongjiang
Xinjiang
Sichuan
5
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
China Consumer Electronic marketMost consumer devices become commodity with low growth rate, including smart phone.
New tech and value-added service keep driving long-term market
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 7
Worldwide Consumer electronics revenue forecast by product, 2015-2021• Portable device, large appliances, and A/V products contribute to major sales revenue in 2021.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Portable device Large Home appliance Home computing Home audio and video Small and personal appliance Personal appliance Consumer robotics
Consumer electronics revenue forecast by product, 2018-2021
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Bil
lio
ns
of
Do
lla
rs
36.4%
35.8%
12.6%
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 8
China Consumer electronics annual growth ratio in shipment volumes forecast by
product, 2018-2021
• PC market will suffer decline, but other segments will retain unit growth in the future three years
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Portable device Large Home appliance Home computing Home audio and video Small and personal appliance Personal appliance Consumer robotics
Consumer electronics annual growth ratio in shipment volumes forecast by product, 2018-2021
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Gro
wth
Rate
Y/Y
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Global Display Capacity Expansion & China Shares
TFT Array (including AMOLED Backplane) Capacity By Countries
(Million Sq. Meters)
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
America China
Germany India
Japan Korea
Singapore Taiwan
55%
52%
39%
AMOLED Capacity By Countries (K Sq. Meters)
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
China Japan
Korea Taiwan
12%
38%
38%
9
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Demand & Capacity Growth Rate
10
• In theory, it is forecast a three-year over-supply to occur in 2018-2020. But, the first oversupply in H2 2017-H1 2018 may
make some new investments postponed, and larger size demand grows as prices go down sharply.
Total TFT array capacity vs. large-area and small/medium FPD module demand growth rate
© 2018 IHS Markit
Notes: Demand includes AMEPD, AMLCD, AMOLED, a-Si, LTPS and oxide panels for both large-area and small/medium applications. Capacity includes all ramped capacity for fabs with ≥30% probability for all applications,, glass sizes and technologies.
Source: IHS Markit
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
LCD, AMOLED, AMEPD Demand Y/Y% 16% 6% 14% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 2% 4% 3%
TFT Capacity for AM Applications Y/Y% 8% 5% 5% 7% 6% 3% 9% 11% 8% 5% 1% 0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Y/Y
Gro
wth
(%
)
Old Fab Shut-
down
Investments in Gen 10.5
(4 fabs - BOE, CSOT, LGD,
Sharp)..More Gen 8/8.6
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
TV Resolution trend changes every 6 years
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
HD(1366 x 768) FHD(1920 x 1080) 4K(3840 x 2160) 8K(7680 x 4320) Average LCD TV size(inch)
LCD TV panel penetration forecasting by resolution
© 2018 IHS Markit
Pen
etr
ati
on
(%)
Notes: LCD TV panel only
Source: IHS Markit
11
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Worldwide TV household penetrations have reached already 80% since 2015 with
Net Additions falling quickly, China follow the trend
72.0%
73.0%
74.0%
75.0%
76.0%
77.0%
78.0%
79.0%
80.0%
81.0%
82.0%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Replacements(000s) Net Additions(000s) Worldwide TV Household Penetration(%)
9-pt - IHS column and line - 2015
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Do
me
sti
c C
on
su
mp
tio
n(0
00
s)
TV
Ho
us
eh
old
Pe
ne
trati
on
(%
)
Worldwide TV Domestic Consumption Split between Net Additions and Replacements
12
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Total 199.5 207.7 210.8 248.4 248.6 232.8 227.4 234.9 226.2 222.7 215.2 222.7 228.3 237.5 237.4 240.1
RP 1.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
OLED 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.5 3.6 6.0 7.1 9.4
PDP 11.3 14.4 14.2 18.4 17.2 13.3 10.3 6.6 0.2 0.0
LCD 79.2 106.4 145.4 191.6 205.3 203.3 209.9 224.9 224.3 221.5 213.5 220.2 224.7 231.5 230.3 230.7
CRT 107.2 86.4 51.1 38.3 26.0 16.1 7.1 3.4 1.3 0.5 0.1
FP TV Y/Y Growth 63.8% 33.5% 32.1% 31.6% 6.0% -2.6% 1.7% 5.1% -2.9% -1.2% -3.2% 3.6% 2.5% 4.0% 0.0% 1.1%
Y/Y Growth w/o Mexico Subsidy 4.0% -5.1% 2.0% -3.0%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
0
50
100
150
200
250
Y/Y
Un
it G
row
th
WW TV Shipment Forecast by Technology (Million Units)
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
WW TV Shipment Forecast by Technology ~ Total TV demand flat after a small
replacement cycle peak in 2020. OLED TV in 2020-2022 is up by increased capacity.• LCD TV demand in 2017 fell 213.5M units mostly driven by falling demand in China. OLED TV shipments had 200K units
upside on Q4’17 forecast.
13
• Around 10 years
replacement cycle
• Final transition to
flat panel TVs in
emerging regions
• Huge capacity of
Gen. 10.5 coming
• UHD broadcast
starts, 4K stream -
ing contents
available
Numbers of TVs
per household
will fall toward
1 units
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Japan North America Western Europe Eastern Europe China Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
WW Flat Panel TV Shipment Forecast by Technology (Million Units)
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Flat panel TV demand in 2017 in North America and China especially was damaged
by steep panel price increases. Price sensitivity remains very high in both regions• In 2016, TV shipments for US and China in 2016 was good, due to better firm consumer spending and currency exchange
rate. Demand for both regions in 2017 was weak.
14
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
TV Related Highlights Toward 2020 and Beyond
Key Topics Region ~ 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021~
4K Broadcasting Korea, Japan
8K Broadcasting Japan (NHK,
BS only)
4K/HDR Streaming WW
Technology WW
8K TV Japan ~
120Hz65”+
China ~
60Hz65”+
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
4K/8K TV Related Highlights toward 2020
OLED Printing
QD LCD QLED
Streaming Services & Streaming TVs
Left
Handed
Tuner
spec
Right
Handed
15
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
0.0
10,000.0
20,000.0
30,000.0
40,000.0
50,000.0
60,000.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
China TV Shipment Forecast by Size Category/Resolution/Features (Millions of Units)
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Sh
ipm
en
ts (
tho
us
an
ds o
f u
nit
s)
TV Features Forecast ~ Continued trend of larger sizes, 4K/HDR and Smart TV will
drive the demand globally, even faster in China
• Hot topics of features are OLED and 8K TVs from now on
16
Premium
w/ 4K TV and contents
SpecialtyPremium ? Specialty
Fashion
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
iFLYTEK dominates voice control and voice assistant in Smart TVs, while
DuerOS of Baidu is aggressively to enter this market.
• iFLYTEK is a national key software enterprise dedicated to the research of intelligent speech and language technologies, development of software and chip products.
• Voice control function was very popular several years ago along with the fast adoption of smart TV, major local brands have been adopting iFLYTEK solution for over
5 years, iFLYTEK focus in China market with the advantage of complicated reginal languages, in addition to mandarin.
• In overseas market, tier-1 Chinese brands are adopting Google assistant mainly.
17
iFLYTEK
AISpeech under Ali
DuerOS of Baidu
Sogou under sohu
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
China smartphone is saturated, it’s couldn’t have fast growth in the future years
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Smartphone 401.99 416.87 475.65 463.75 469.37 479.53 493.22 502.80
AGR 26.3% 3.7% 14.10% -2.50% 1.20% 2.20% 2.90% 1.90%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
Smartphone AGR
18
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
China market is high concentrated,The top 4 players take up about 70% market share
and leading growth in China market in 2017Market Share Of Each Brand In China Market(Unit:%) YOY growth by Brand In China Market(Unit:Million/%)
Source: Mobile handset database country, IHS Markit
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017
Huawei OPPO Vivo Xiaomi Apple Other Gionee
Meizu Samsung ZTE Coolpad LeEco Hisense Lenovo
TCL Alcatel Sony HTC LG Microsoft
OEM 2016 2017 YOYHuawei 76.2 90.9 19%
OPPO 76.7 86.3 12%
Vivo 71.1 73.1 3%
Xiaomi 53.0 56.1 6%
Apple 49.1 48.1 -2%
Other 21.0 26.2 25%
Gionee 20.4 15.0 -26%
Meizu 20.7 14.3 -31%
Samsung 31.3 13.1 -58%
ZTE 13.6 7.7 -44%
Coolpad 12.9 3.2 -75%
LeEco 18.9 2.0 -89%
Hisense 3.4 1.7 -51%
Lenovo 4.7 1.0 -80%
TCL Alcatel 0.7 0.3 -63%
Sony 0.4 0.2 -53%
HTC 0.7 0.2 -77%
LG 0.1 0.1 -30%
Microsoft 0.8 0.0 -100%
Total 475.6 439.2 -8%
19
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Huawei OPPO Vivo Xiaomi Apple
Samsung Goinne Nubia HTC Nokia
Smartisan Oneplus GOME Sharp 3600
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
sharp
Galaxy S8
AQUOS S2
M7
Maimang6
Honor7X
F205
Redmi5
Wide display smartphone model number is China market Lowest Bezel-Less smartphone price in china market every month(unit: RMB)
Chinese brands pushed the 18:9 aspect ratio smartphones to the lower-end
segment within about half years
Source: IHS Markit
20
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Dual camera product market share of will reached to 35.9% in 2018, it will little bit
higher than world level
Dual camera forecast of China market(Unit: million/%)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2016 2017 2018
Dual Camera Market share
⚫ The Chinese brand is very aggressive on Dual camera
product,since Huawei launched P9 by corporate with
Leica. But the large prat of volume is dominated by Apple,
LG in the worldwide.
⚫ Most part of Chinese brand launched the Dual camera
product in the from 2017Q2, but most of models are
flagship model.
⚫ In the second half year, As the Dual camera productivity
get mature and it cost down, the dual camera product will
extend into lower end product.
⚫ OPPO, vivo and Huawei Leading the shipment on dual
camera.
Source: IHS Markit
21
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Camera will keep being upgraded in China market,when UGC(User Generated
Content)time is coming
• There are about 150 K short videos being uploaded on these APP in every minutes ,most users are female who
below 30 years old
The total users reached 700 millions in 2017
November, from the 100million in 2016 June
There are about 200 million users in 2017 October,
the average daily use time lasted more than 70
minutes, and the total daily volume exceeded 3
billion.
There are 280 million by monthly Active Users
The team was formed in early 2016, The total
community day VV has reached 300 million,
with users watching over 100 videos on
average every day
The number of active users on June 30, 2017 has
reached 152 million, a 33.3% year-on-year growth.
the total platform has grown by more than 12 million
users.
the peak performance of the second and little curry shows has
exceeded 2.5 billion times, with daily upload volume exceeding
1.5 million and daily coverage of over 70 million users, in
December 2016.
22
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Worldwide and China Notebook PC Shipment Forecast
• Notebook shipments are projected to be 167M units with 1% Y/Y declined in 2018 by component supply constrained
impact and return to positive growth in 2019 by PC replacement demand caused by end of support of Win 7 & Win Server
2008 since 2020.
23
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Worldwide and China Tablet PC Shipment Forecast
• Low-priced 9.7” iPad ($329 starting) helped Apple to gain shares in 2017, but it also impacted non-Apple tablet demand.
• New PC replacement demand of small and medium business in Western Europe comes from smartphones and
tablets/detachable PCs, not from desktop PC, when PC brands realize the reason of high monitor inventory in the end of
2017 recently.
24
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
2-in-1 PC Shipment Forecast
• PC brands hope to have closed business relationship with Google because of having tussle over 4K OS fee with Microsoft.
Also, convertible PC design is popular with Americans, so some of PC brands (ex: Dell) plan to develop more convertible
Chromebooks since 2018.
• Detachable shipment declining in 2017 is expected that Apple and Microsoft 2017 shipments will be less than 2016.
25
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Worldwide and China Desktop Monitor Shipment Forecast
• Desktop monitor shipments are projected to be 122.7M units with 0.2% Y/Y declined in 2018 by component supply
constrained impact and return to positive growth in 2019 by PC replacement demand caused by end of support of Win 7
& Win Server 2008 since 2020.
26
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
China Smart Speak Market forecast
27
• IHS Markit expects the China smart speaker domestic market to grow to 540,000 units in 2017 as several new models are expected to be
announced in the second half of 2017
• IHS Markit forecast that the China smart speaker domestic market will grow to 1.9 million units in 2018, and 3.4 million units in 2019
• By 2021 this market is expected to reach nearly 7 million units on conservative forecast basis
60 120
1,380
2,260
3,490
5,040
6,960
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
China smart speaker unit shipments forecast in domestic market, 2017–2021
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f u
nit
s
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
China Home ApplianceChina domestic smart home appliance still in initial stage
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
China domestic smart home appliance development trend
2010-2020 2021-2030 2031-
Introduction Growth Maturity
Product definitionCloud platform
Smartphone controlLarge data
Standard issueLow penetration
Conventional business model
Online sales channels
Smart homeOperation system
IoT automation and services
Grow quicklyNew business model
Brisk competitionLarge playersBetter profit
Hardware makers Integrated service
providersHigher industry entry
barrierLow growth ratio
Dominators
Unit shipment
29
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
China smart room air conditioner market
30
• Shipment: over 25 mu in 2017, total market soared
• Penetration ratio: nearly 55% by 2021
• Market drivers: low-price, flagship products
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mil
lio
n U
nit
s
Air conditioner Smart air conditioner Smart %
China domestic smart connected room air conditioner unit shipments forecast, 2018-2021
2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
China smart washing machine market
31
• Penetration ratio: nearly 34% by 2021
• Shipment: 8.3 mu in 2017, over 18mu in 2021
• Market drivers: new products, one leader’s aggressive strategy
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mil
lio
n U
nit
s
Washing machine Smart washing machine Smart %
China domestic smart connected washing machine unit shipments forecast, 2018-2021
2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
China smart refrigerator market
32
• Refrigerator + tablet: control center for smart kitchen
• Penetration ratio: nearly 22% by 2021
• Market drivers: new business model, new ecosystem, high-end
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mil
lio
n U
nit
s
Refrigerator Smart refrigerator Smart %
China domestic smart connected refrigerator unit shipments forecast, 2018-2021
2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
Confidential. © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
White-goods characteristics
• White-goods: weak MMI
• Single function: cooling, store foods, washing clothes
• Strong MMI: television(set-top box), smartphone, tablet……
• Connected white-goods: new MMI
• Smartphone, tablet
• AI white-goods: new MMI
• Nascence AI
• Voice control
• Gesture control
• ……
• Improving MMI increase customer loyalty???
• Long-term smart home
33
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Wrap Up
• Economy is the key driving force of consumer market, consumption habits differ greatly in China
• Most consumer devices become commodity with low growth rate, including smart phone, but new tech and
value-added service keep driving long-term market on a revenue basis
• New TFT array (including AMOLED backplane) capacity mainly come from China, high possibility of a three-
year over-supply in 2018-2020. But, it could make some new investments postponed, and larger size demand
grows as prices go down sharply
• Advanced features for most products are popular in China, big differentiation by OLED is about “rollable” and
“paper like” both for smartphone and TV. Companies to have penetration of platforms have more power even
for future smart car, from now on.
• Gaming is hot even on saturated notebook PC and monitors
• AI, IoT, voice assistant are important elements for platform makers such as amazon/google/apple, etc. and
BAT in China
• Home appliance is steady on revenue growth, due to localization.
• How to create less manpower and fun of users are important for the future of consumer devices. If H/W
makers force consumer to do something, it will not be successful.
IHS Markit Ltd and its affiliates (“IHS Markit”) make no warranty, expressed or implied, as to accuracy, completeness, or timeliness, or as to the results to be obtained by use of the products and services described herein, and shall not in any way be
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