china pakistan economic corridor4
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Politicization of CPEC
Research Analysis Group-IMs. Sobia Mazhar (Leader)
Mr. Athar NaveedMr. Zubair Ahmed Channa
Mr. Naveed Rehmat
Advisor: Mr. Abdul Sammad Channa (ADS)
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SequenceIntroductionApprehensions / Grievances of ProvincesSindh Province Balochistan ProvinceKhyber Pakhtoonkhwa ProvinceEfforts to Scuttle CPEC Socio Economic Impact of CPECRecommendationsStrategies Conclusion
INTRODUCTION
By:MS. SOBIA MAZHAR
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Introduction
• Closed Strategic Allies
• CPEC 45.651 billion $ mega
project
• Upgrade and expand infrastructure
• Transit route facility
• Exim Bank of China
• 11 billion $ at 1.6% interst rate for infrastructure
Proposed Routes
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Western Route
Cont’d…..
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Central Route
Cont’d…..Proposed Routes
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Eastern Route
Cont’d…..Proposed Routes
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Salient Features
• Transport Infrastructure• Telecommunications• Energy Sector• Intelligence sharing• Gas pipelines• China’s strategic ambitions• “game and fate changer “
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Phases of completion• Early Harvest Projects (2018)• Short-Term Projects (2020)• Mid-Term Projects (2025)• Long-Term Projects (2030) • Three Official Forums have been established for
CPEC: – Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC).– Joint Working Group (JWG). – Steering Committee
PROVINCE OF SINDH AND CPEC
By:MS. SOBIA MAZHAR
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• Second largest province of Pakistan in terms of population• Nearly 52 per cent of its population in the rural areas. • The rural-urban poverty gap in Sindh is high• The bulk of the rural population is said to be living below the poverty line
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ISSUES/PROBLEMS
• Employment opportunities are limited• Mainly agricultural sector• Safe drinking water• Sanitation facilities
– 31% of country’s rural population connected to the drainage system, in Sindh only only 14 %
– Only 10 per cent of them have access to proper sanitation facilities
Energy Sector - 10,400 MW
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Cont’d…..ENERGY SECTOR
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“Thar Coal is the future of Pakistan. The country’s energy security will depend on Thar
Coal.”
Younus DhagaSecretary W&P Islamabad
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• Thar Coal Power Project• Port Qasim Coal Fired Project• Wind Power Projects: Dawood Wind Farm (50
MW), UEP Wind Farm (100MW), Sachal Wind Farm (50 MW), Sunnec Wind Farm (50 MW), Pakistan Wind Farm (2X50 MW)
• Thar Mine Mouth Power Project By Oracle, Thar Sindh
Energy Projects of Sindh-CPEC
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Apprehensions/Reservations
Keti Bandar Port not Part of CPECKeti Bundar Port the Chief Minister Sindh
Syed Qaim Ali Shahnear to Thar Coal minespecial terminal
Acquisition Of Land
PROVINCE OF BALOCHISTAN AND CPEC
By:MR. ATHER NAVEED
CPEC - BALUCHISTAN
Gwadar Free Economic Zone – Generate Employment /
Economic activity
Construction of East-Bay Expressway, Gwadar Port
Pak-China Technical and Vocational Institute at Gwadar
Dredging of Berthing Areas and Channels, Gwadar Port
New Gwadar International Airport-Connectivity with world
Gwader Coal Power Project, 300 MW
HUBCO Coal Power Plant, 1320 MW
Gadani Power Park Project 1320 MW
Baluchistan’s Apprehensions-Root Cause
Poverty stricken areaInter Provincial confidence deficit Sub-Nationalistic elements Socioeconomic disparity Low human development index providesFailure of Successive Governments –
Federal/Provincial
Apprehensions about CPEC
Fear of Demographic changes.No share of local people in economic benefits of
project.Route Controversy-Pro Eastern tilt of federal
governmentDecisions in Multi-Party Conference (MPC):
Demand for Contract of Gwadar Mega Projects to province
Federal Government to adhere decisions taken in APC of 28th May 2015.
Route Controversy-GoB Stance
Decision of APC of May 28, 2015 on route must be completed on priority.
Modified Western Route should pass through: Gwadar-Turbat-Hoshab-Panjgur-Besima-Kalat-Quetta-Qila Saifullah-Zhob-Dera Ismail Khan-Mianwali-Attock-Hasanabdal- and upwards.Suggest two loops attached with Western Route:
Dera Ismail Khan-Sarghoda-Lahore to connect with the Lahore-Karachi Motorway.
Khuzdar-Ratodero-Sukkur to connect with the Lahore-Karachi Motorway.
PROVINCE OF KHYBER PAKHTOONKHWA AND CPEC
By:ZUBAIR AHMED CHANNA
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“This Government wont allow the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to pass through the province if center denied the due share in its route to latter”
Pervez Khattak CM Khyber Pakhtoon Khwa
3rd January 2016 Dawn News
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“Pakistan does not look like a federation today as one province (Punjab) is dominating
others….”
Sikandar Hayat Khan Sherpao Qaumi Watan Party KPK3rd January 2016 Dawn News
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KPK Province and CPEC• Third most populous administrative unit• Hub of Renewable Energy Resources• Catchment area of main water bodies of country• 20% (600 km) of CPEC route (DIK to Pindi &
Abotabad to Chillas) crosses through KPK• Less than 5% route (Western Alignment) crosses
Punjab province• CPEC Crosses through under developed but
resource rich area of province (oil and gas reserves)
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CPEC Projects in KPK
• Total 31 projects shortlisted in CPEC (US $45.65 Bn)
• Only two projects for KPK– Thakot-Havelian section of Karakoram Highway (US $
0.93 Bn)– Suki Kinari Hydro Power Project (US $ 1.8 Bn)
• Only 5% of total cost being spent in KPK
Reference: Ministry of Planning Division Islamabad
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CPEC Route in KPK
Reference: Planning Department Govt of KPK
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GRIEVANCES/APPREHENSIONS
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Low Share of Province
• Out of 30 Project-Early Harvest Phase only 02 projects for KPK
• Only 9% of US $27.65 Bn
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Low Priority to Hydro Power Projects
Sourceof Energy
Per UnitCost (MW)
Timefor Completion
Operatingcost
Hydro Power 3 Million US $ 4-8 Years Rs 1 Per Unit
Thermal 1 Million US $ 1-2 Years Rs 7-8 Per Unit
Coal 1 Million US $ 1-2 Years Rs 7-8 Per Unit
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Route Controversy
• Controversy started when a federal minister supported Eastern Route.
• NHA declared Western/Central Route as Priority Route
• KPK proposed inclusion of Fateh Jung, Jand, Karak and Kohat in the alignment
• New Proposed area-Oil Rich and Gas Fields
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Mega Projects Missed
• Missed Mega Projects of Socio-Economic Importance:– Sawat Motorway Project (Road)– CRBC (Irrigation of 250,000 acres land)– Shogo Sin & Shushgai Hydro Power Projects
(Energy)– Special Economic Zones in KPK ignored
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Lack of Information Sharing
• MoUs / Agreements inked so far not shared• No consultations while prioritizing project • Repayment schedule of loans not disclosed• Impact of loan on Debt to GDP ratio not
disclosed / debated
EFFORTS TO SCUTTLE THE MEGA PROJECT
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• History is witness Kalabagh Dam, Bhasha Dam• KPK assembly adopted a resolution• Certain NGOs, Think Tank
• Plight of masses• China’s imperialist designs
• ANP , BNP, JUI,PTI• Nationalists
• control over resources,• minority
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• Thorn in the paw for the Adversaries of Pakistan
• India, USA, UAE• Sudden upsurge in acts of terror
• 49 personals including 33 FC Personals and policemen
• Security issues• Separatists groups• Baluchistan Liberation Army and Jundallah, which have carried out bombings.• Azad Kashmir, foreign hostile agencies
SOCIO ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CPEC
By:MR. NAVEED REHMAT
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S# SectorPunjab
(No./US$ Bn)
Sindh(No./US$
Bn)
KPK(No./US$
Bn)
Baluchistan(No./US$
Bn)
AJK(No./US$
Bn)
UMBRELLA(No./US$
Bn)
TOTAL(No./US$
Bn)
1 Energy 5/6.47 10/8.07 1/1.8 1/0.4 1/1.42 - 18/18.16
2 Transport 1/1.6 - 1/0.93 2/0.36 - 2/6.29 6/9.18
3 S&T 2/0.007 - - - - - 2/0.007
4 WatSan - - - 1/0.13 - - 1/0.13
5 Health - - - 1/0.10 - - 1/0.1
6 Trade - - - 1/0.06 - 1/0.06
7 Education - - - 1/0.01 - - 1/0.01
8 Others - - - - - - 1/18.004
TOTAL 8/8.077 10/8.07 2/2.73 7/1.06 1/1.422/6.2931/
45.65
Sector Wise Allocation
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Existing Socio-economic Conditions of Areas Under CPEC
• Terrorism/Insurgency in all provinces especially K-B • Joblessness• Poverty• Poor Infrastructure• Poor communication means• Lack of Basic Facilities especially in Baluchistan
– (Health Education, Water, Sewerage and personal Hygiene etc.
• Lack of Energy
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Impact of CPEC
• Investment
• 30 projects worth US $ 27.73 bn in the Early Harvest Phase
• Total FDI since 1970 = CPEC Invst in next 15 years
• Infrastructure
• Production
• Allied economic activities
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• GDP
• Unemployment
• Income level - Per Capita Income
• Poverty
• Better education, health
• Standard of Living
• Human Index
Impact CPEC
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• Development of Gwadar• Industrial Sector• Special Economic Zones• CPEC has opened vista of great opportunities
for Pakistan • Every province will be beneficiary• Baluchistan and KPK will have more benefits
Impact CPEC
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• Corridor needs to be economic not purely strategic for one partner
• Cost – benefit analysis• No political or personal whims• Negotiations to employee as many locals as possible• Indigenous Financing • Tax base• Banking System• Transparency
CHALLENGES
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RECOMMENDATIONS
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• Consistency and continuation on NAP• Investment conducive environment• Frequent meetings of Steering Committee to
address grievances• MoUs/Agreements to be shared with
Stakeholders• Firm commitment by all parties in support of
CPEC• Defend project on International Fronts
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IMPLENTATIONS STRATEGY
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S. No Activity Responsibility Resources Time Period
Outcome
Financial HR Technical
1 De-Politicization
Federal Govt/Parliament
- - - One Year
CBM
2 Unequal allocation of Funds
Ministry of finance and Planning
One Year
Reprioritization of projects and fixation of DLIs
3 Absence of Authority at Provincial Level
Ministry of Planning Division
- - - One year
Separate PMIUs at Provincial Level headed by ACS
4 Projects of less importance placed at early harvest phase
Ministry of Planning
- - - One year
Reprioritization:-Roads-Port Dev-Energy-Economic Zones-Allied Facilities
SHORT TERM IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
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S. No Activity Responsibility Resources Time Period
Outcome
Financial HR Technical
1 Security LIAs, IAs, Local Administrtion
- - - 3 years
Investment Friendly Environment
2 Cost Effective and Environment Friendly Energy Projects not on priority
Ministry of Planning/ Water & Power
- - - 3-5 years
Hydel and Renewable energy projects to be given priority
3 SEZs in Small Provinces
Ministry of Planning /Finance
- - - 3-5 Provinces to shortlist SEZs at strategic location of CPEC
MEDIUM / LONG TERM IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
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CONCLUSION
"The new Peking Man has a singular goal - to double, triple and quadruple China's $4
Trillion GDP by 2050. And, any country that can help China go where it wants to go is a
friend - or you are on your own.”
ANALYSIS OF THE CPECAROOJ NAVEED PhD CANDIDATE
SOUTH ASIA VOICES
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MOBILE APPLICATION-CPEC POL SURVEY
Thank You
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# Sectors/ProjectsNo. of
ProjectsInvestment
(US $ Million)Output
Sector Wise Allocation
Source: Ministry of Planning, Development and Reforms http://www.pc.gov.pk/?page_id=5352 Accessed on 28 Feb, 2016
1 Energy 24 34413 17045 MW
2Transport and Infrastructure (Roads)
2
6100
832 km
3 Railway 2 3690 1736 km
4 Gwadar Port Projects 8 793 construction
5
Others (Optical Fiber and Digital terrestrial Multimedia Broadcast-DTMB)
02 44 developemnt
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PROBLEM Solution Implementation Strategy1) Politicization Confidence Building
Measures (CBMs)Sharing of Information with Stakeholders
2) Unequal Allocation of Funds
Reprioritization of Projects and fixation of DLIs
Release of funds on successful completion of DLI
3) Absence of Authority
Establishment of PMIUs at Provincial level
Devolution of authority by Min of Planning at Provincial level
4) Less Importance projects placed in early phase
Reprioritization of Projects in consultation with Prov.
Prioritize projects as:• Road Infr Structure• Port Development• Energy Projects• Economic Zones• Other Projects• Railway Network
5) Law and Order and Security Issue
Elimination of terrorism /CBM with local populace
Empower LEAs and IAs. Employment avenues for local population
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PROBLEM Solution Implementation Strategy
1) Cost Effective and Environment Friendly Power Project not included
EIA of all potential projects before implementation
Renewable Energy like Hydel/Wind may be given preference on Thermal
2) SEZs not given priority
SEZs in strategic location of CPEC route
SEZs to be included in third phase of CPEC or special PSDP allocation may be earmarked for provinces to establish SEZs
MEDIUM TERM IMPLENETATION STRATEGY
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