china’s transport sector - energy information administration · 2011-06-27 · china has the...
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China’s Transport Sector
David SandalowEIA Annual Energy Conference
April 27, 2011
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Tota
l mo
tor
veh
icle
pro
du
ctio
n (
mill
ion
s)Chinese auto production is skyrocketing
Source: Ward's Automotive, International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA), Chinese and Japanese Auto Manufacturers Associations
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UnitedStates
China
Japan
Almost all Chinese production sold to rapidly growing domestic market
Millions passenger vehicles and trucks
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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
China 75m
China became a net importer in 1990s; now imports ~50% of oil
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1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Mil
lio
n b
arre
ls p
er
day
ne
t imp
orts
Production
Consumption
Chinese oil demand growth (mainly for transport) leads world
Source: IEA
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Change in primary oil demand 2007-2030
China has adopted increasingly stringent fuel economy standards
Source: iCET
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Beijing
Shanghai
Dalian
Hangzhou
Wuhan
Chongqing
Jinan
Changchun
Shenzhen
Hefei
Changsha
Kunming
Nanchang
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China has strong incentives for advanced vehicle deployment
>$3 billion for public and taxi fleets in 20 cities$9,000 consumer rebates
Traffic challenges
China has the world’s fastest and largest high-speed rail network
• Fastest speeds: Chinese trains now reach operating speeds of 220 mph, faster than their European and Japanese counterparts, and a Chinese train holds the world speed record of 260 mph
• Largest network: China’s 4,600 miles of HSR lines is the world’s largest, and by 2020 is expected to more than double to 9,700 miles (more than the rest of world combined)
• Technology dominance: in just six years (from 2004-2010) China went from HSR importer to exporter (to Turkey, Brazil, Venezuela and others)
Expected travel times between Chinese provincial capitals
The Beijing-Tianjin intercity railway
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63.95
5.8
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7.5
28.7
13.8
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1,331
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326.92
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7.4
27.1
5.7
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307
Vehicles per 100 people
Energy consumption per capita (million Btu)
GHG emissions per capita
Cumulative GHG emissions 1850-2004 (Gt CO2e)
Current GHG emissions (Gt CO2e)
High-tech exports (% manufactured exports)
Annual motor vehicle production (millions)
Coal consumption (% world)
Population (millions)
Compare and contrast...
S&T have long been a foundation of U.S.-China cooperation
Deng Xiaoping and Jimmy Carter sign the U.S.-China S&T Agreement – the first bilateral agreement after normalization of relations in 1979
Nov. 2009: President Obama and President Hu announce seven new joint U.S.-China clean energy initiatives
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