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Climate Action Team- Public Health
Work Group
Health and Wildfire in a Changing
Climate
July 22, 2014
What CAL FIRE projects in terms of wildfire frequency, intensity, and extent?
CAL FIRE wildfire risk projections (i.e. where wildfires are more likely to occur and how this may affect populations (people))?
CAL FIRE’s recommendations to protect same people from wildfire impacts?
CAL FIRE Programs aimed at addressing these issues (FireSTEPP and VMP)
CAL FIRE’s Guiding Document, 2010 California Strategic Fire Plan.
Plan VISION
A natural environment that is more resilient and man-made assets which are more resistant to the occurrence and effects of wildland fire through local, state, federal and private partnerships.
GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
Goals Through government and community collaboration, the following goals will enhance the protection of lives, property and natural resources from wildland fire, as well as improve environmental resilience to wildland fire. Community protection includes promoting the safety of the public and emergency responders, as well as protection of property and other improvements. Each goal listed here is meant to
build upon the previous one (e.g., Goal 3 builds upon the accomplishments in Goals 1 and 2). Although full attainment of a goal is ultimately dependent upon the success of previous goals, any of the goals can be worked on at any given time based on available funding and other opportunities.
Plan Goals 1. Identify and evaluate wildland fire hazards and recognize life, property and natural
resource assets at risk, including watershed, habitat, social and other values of functioning ecosystems. Facilitate the sharing of all analyses and data collection across all ownerships for consistency in type and kind.
2. Articulate and promote the concept of land use planning as it relates to fire risk and individual landowner objectives and responsibilities.
3. Support and participate in the collaborative development and implementation of wildland fire protection plans and other local, county and regional plans that address fire protection and landowner objectives.
4. Increase awareness, knowledge and actions implemented by individuals and communities to reduce human loss and property damage from wildland fires, such as defensible space and other fuels reduction activities, fire prevention and fire safe building standards.
5. Develop a method to integrate fire and fuels management practices with landowner priorities and multiple jurisdictional efforts within local, state and
federal responsibility areas.
6. Determine the level of fire suppression resources necessary to protect the values and assets at risk identified during planning processes.
7. Address post-fire responsibilities for natural resource recovery, including watershed protection, reforestation and ecosystem restoration.
What CAL FIRE projects in terms of wildfire frequency, intensity, and extent?
Predictive Se ■ rv1ces
Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
~ ~ CC:,
Hawaii D
.,w,'
July 2014
Significant Wildland Fire Potential - Above Norma l ~ In creasing to Above Normal
Decreasi ng to Below Norma l
Retu rn ing to Normal
Above normal significa nt w ildland fire potent ial indicates a higher th an usual likelihood th at w ildland fi res will occur and/or bec ome significa nt events. W ldl an d fir es are st ill expected to occur during forecasted normal co nditions as would usually be expected during the outloo k period . Significa nt wild land fires are still possible but less like ly than usual during forecasted be low normal pe riods.
Puerto Rico
ii Map prod uced by
Pred ic:t ive Se rv ices , National lnteragency Coordination Ce nter
Bo ise , Ida ho Issued July 1, 201 4
Next issuance August 1, 20 14
7 Day Outlook
Legend
Fuel Dryn.ess
- Mlllst- ume m 11Drts1;'fc. 1c.1 e nres.
Dry • nslull laige il!<s
In Ille allGooce al B ~ IJ~ Rlsl!"E!Yl!fll.
- Very dry - LM /1.!l:xfoo;;le rt!& or IEllJl !Ires ~ IIJe
e.1:6eooe cf a "HI;! Rist:' ...... nt.
- Data l-"a, Ebia .
High Risk Events
W Wind
H Dlaml Dry
, LIJl1'rll11JI
National 7-day Significant
Fire P:otential outlook
NOOI • atll coast N0112-w:l OCE.'S.l
Callfoml a - North Ar,ea 7 Day
Significant Fire Poient .a l
N0113A -~ Araa-Marile
NOOll - E'astSIDe
'111/eat'her
'" Thu11ders1onr1s. Ylitih Rai nla I Through Tuesday • •
Moisl ums1eble coodi ave, !he orth C!ps region d coo • !he shcmer and wet !hunder5lonn chances 1hrough Tues>Oa)' . The ac • · ~ d be focused in eB!l and saut'llem a:reas, bui ii d gra:lual ly drifl no a:rd end focus oo 11113 oortrnem he~ of 1hle l\loir1hl Cp9 area 1e tod;.y and Tue:sdB')', wlli sou m a.re.as begi rn tocle'ar. A dire<:t liln from a !hunder5lonn can yield 0.50-1 .DD inches o rainfal l.
Low pre:;-swr,ed 51 be eve Pa:cific hu;e51 on Wedne-sdB')' , lbwt for !he h Ops area condi1ions will be sunny. cty and breeZ')' . '51/1-"rll winds guslingta 25-30 mph east ,al~ ca,e:1PltSierra cmwtYlfdoe:sdn m;rv euw tJoldP'itr iqoi1Jion51frgm W?e:Dt nahW!irna l9 rBR:idbr 9IPW ;p rnd §:PR:Dd Warmer erd drier condi R are expected m Th rsda.y, bui wnh ~glt1er winds.
Higlil pres.-swr,e •Nil lbwikl O'!/er 1he ragiorn begirarning late n !he week and irnto ext wee'.k.end and puslil femperaluras t.p to 7-12 clegiees above raarmel · h humii:lily and poor overriglt1 RH r!!CD\'el)' in m y inland ereas. Lgh1 to local , rooderete N- E 5Urface winds ITTB')' enli.anae !hese conditions • lcmer western Sierra si(lpes to, !he ooa.-stal moontains from Thursd~ !hroogh s, d3y .
CAL FIRE wildfire risk projections (i.e. where wildfires are more likely to occur and how this may affect populations (people))?
Average Wildfire Acres by Decade
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's (to
2008)
Th
ou
san
ds
Decade
Ac
res
AGRICULTURE
CONIFER
HARDWOOD
HERBACEOUS
SHRUB
og , cres)
Model Pred[clions for ALL
.3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
* 0 *
*
1990 1992 1 9 9 4
*
ildfi re .1.cres Bumed 1890-2008
Log Linear Trend
* *
* * *
1 9 9 6 1998 2000
R-nquare , ,dj,J = .39522 p=.0119
*
* *
2002 2004
*
*
*
2006 2008
;adir-t:::ity .~
·s •, y
. . . , .... , \ _
• I
Priority Landsca~~ -t Communities Protec
1111 High
Medium
C:] Low
~ Communities
CJ
CAL FIRE’s recommendations to protect same people from wildfire impacts?
2007 New Fire Resistive Construction in the all of the SRA and the VHFHSZ.
Protective Measures for the Public LE-1 00 Program
CAL FIRE Programs aimed at addressing these issues (FireSTEPP and VMP)
Saf ty lement Review with Local Gov rnment and CEQA Findings
\\1klfitt ZortC'J
- VO) H"" H•&h
MAIN~O'IOUT'IM.I T'""'-tione......____,/ __ ..________I LOCATION KEY MAP~ ::-..:.:-..::-.:-=----·-·
- Moocn"' Lo,,
Fuel Reduction Programs
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